January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[franklin NCwx]

12 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

I’m hopeful but still cautious. The confidence some very good Mets have at the chance for the low track to still be as high as TN/KY worries me. We really need a missed phase and weaker strung out system to fight that. Who woulda thought we’d be cheering for that after these last few years lol?

Its been the them the last several years as the northern stream has dominated and any phasing has been late

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like all the models that were further north are trending south towards what the Euro and GFS are showing.

[WXNewton]

11 minutes ago, Thrasher Fan said:

Considerable shift south on the 18z ICON. Less moisture to work with as well.

*of note* 18z only runs to 120h so not fully within the window but southerly trend none the less.

The ICON ensembles do not support that far of a south jog on the OP, they are very much in line with euro and GFS. Verbatim, continues the theme of a significant winter storm.

 

[Grayman]

Very stupid question and I’m still learning. If not, appropriate mods, move it to somewhere else.. my question is when I’m looking at model models and I’m looking at the 850mb temperatures and it’s less than 32° what else should I be looking at to see how warm the upper columns are. Always thought that the 850s were below 32 I was good.  I live in Rockingham, North Carolina, so I’m on the southern tip of the snow. Thanks in advance for the education.

[Disc]

Just now, Grayman said:

Very stupid question and I’m still learning. If not, appropriate mods, move it to somewhere else.. my question is when I’m looking at model models and I’m looking at the 850mb temperatures and it’s less than 32° what else should I be looking at to see how warm the upper columns are. Always thought that the 850s were below 32 I was good.  I live in Rockingham, North Carolina, so I’m on the southern tip of the snow. Thanks in advance for the education.

You can have warm layers anywhere from about 700mb and lower. So the best way to find out where a warm layer is, is by looking at model soundings. 

[Grayman]

8 minutes ago, Disc said:

You can have warm layers anywhere from about 700mb and lower. So the best way to find out where a warm layer is, is by looking at model soundings. 

Thanks 

[BornAgain13]

Vort coming out in GFS. Probably wont be suppressed 

[BornAgain13]

18Z AIGFS much colder! It folded 

[Thrasher Fan]

out to 75h on 18z GFS and very slight differences. Nothing to change the course

[mwp1023]

I'm trying to think of a similar storm setup but nothing like this for RDU area.  3 day event with Saturday upper teens at night and snowing.  I can't remember a storm with temps that cold while it was snowing.  It's always right at (or above...) freezing.

[BornAgain13]

Not much differences so far with 18z GFS but the AI trended colder! 

[olafminesaw]

Yeah a bit north/weaker HP on the GFS so far 

[SEwakenosnowforu]

7 minutes ago, mwp1023 said:

I'm trying to think of a similar storm setup but nothing like this for RDU area.  3 day event with Saturday upper teens at night and snowing.  I can't remember a storm with temps that cold while it was snowing.  It's always right at (or above...) freezing.

I live in fuquay varina and it was 22 and snowing all during last years event. The storm we had before that...2022 or 2024 also low 20s

[BornAgain13]

18z GFS looks to be further south. That High really pressing down

[Thrasher Fan]

Out to 114h and we do get a bit of a jog south. 

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GFS looks to be further south. That High really pressing down

Seems to be delayed with the primary impulse which has been the trend lately. I think it's going to be a good run for many 

[franklin NCwx]

Im starting to think northern Mississippi,  N Bama, N GA through the upstate will be the sweet spot. Perfect over running event with the high working in tandem over the Midwest 

[BornAgain13]

South shift but begins to turn north...

[Thrasher Fan]

Moisture influx seems increased over previous runs. Hold on to your butts here...

Storm as a whole much slower to eject this run. If this where to verify, a pasting is happening on somebody.

[BornAgain13]

North Carolina gets smoked this run!

[franklin NCwx]

Seems to eject the southern energy in pieces.  Makes since with the strong northern stream

[BornAgain13]

A lot of folks cash in with the 18z GFS. Taken verbatim 

[WNC_Fort]

This south trend is the thing of nightmares for the western NC foothill crowd. Something we’ve seen a lot the last few years

[franklin NCwx]

1 minute ago, WNC_Fort said:

This south trend is the thing of nightmares for the western NC foothill crowd. Something we’ve seen a lot the last few years

Its been that way for years with the loss of any southern stream

[BornAgain13]

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Right where we want it 5 days out. Gives us time to adjust if the HP isn’t as strong as modeled and allows low to track further NW. 

[wxdawg10]

A war is happening on X between NE mets hugging the Euro AI  and their followers seeing anything but southern trends.  interesting how this ends up

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Thrasher Fan]

Yall need to do better about showing the whole region... 

[Grayman]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Right where we want it 5 days out. Gives us time to adjust if the HP isn’t as strong as modeled and allows low to track further NW. 

I’m in jackpot, but we all know the rule. 4 days you don’t want to be there. At least there is a chance for most of the board. If not we will hit cliff driving thread. lol