First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[8611Blizz]

Hope the NAM is onto something.  The cutoff is knife edge sharp though... don't want that to slide even 20 miles south or I'm back to the heavy dusting...

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a pretty solid advisory event for eastern third….maybe even flirting with low end warning type stuff in far SE MA

NAM is showing like 0.4-0.5”. Yeah solid advisory.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

RRFS looks like it’s coming NW..

Didn’t you say it was already pretty far NW earlier…must be zonked now 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

NAM is showing like 0.4-0.5”. Yeah solid advisory.

Man, if we could get a last second trend of trying to curl this vortmax under SNE, we could escalate the totals pretty quick. Only problem with such a fine trigger is it doesn’t take much to make this a whiff in the other direction. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Didn’t you say it was already pretty far NW earlier…mist be zonked now 

Yes not like AIs, 18z RRFS looked like 00z Nam , 00z RRFS looks to be much better 

[dendrite]

3k not as enthused

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Lol

It's just unreal.....always north, south, east or west..too close to the ocean or too far. Absolutely, positively unreal.

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Man, if we could get a last second trend of trying to curl this vortmax under SNE, we could escalate the totals pretty quick. Only problem with such a fine trigger is it doesn’t take much to make this a whiff in the other direction. 

It is a delicate setup no doubt. See what the rest of guidance does. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't know if I slept with Mother Nature on a dunrken bender 20 years ago and never called her back,  or what...but I apologize 1000 times...holy shit.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's just unreal.....always north, south, east or west..too close to the ocean or too far. Absolutely, positively unreal.

I mean it’s not like you’d be missing much from either event.

[WeatherGeek2025]

euro will have the big nw move next tonight or never for this storm!

[Baroclinic Zone]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Yes not like AIs, 18z RRFS looked like 00z Nam , 00z RRFS looks to be much better 

Does the roofus have 500mb vorticity graphics?

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't know if I slept with Mother Nature on a dunrken bender 20 years ago and never called her back,  or what...but I apologize 1000 times...holy shit.

Time for some blood-letting to the gods.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

I mean it’s not like you’d be missing much from either event.

No, truth be told I'd prefer to pass on the 2", but it's just insult to injury.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Does the roofus have 500mb vorticity graphics?

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

Yeah, she comin in hot too.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah look at that vortmax. Much better on the 00z run. That’s what we need to watch. If you can allow that to stay more consolidated with a bit of H5 curl, you can escalate things pretty fast. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah look at that vortmax. Much better on the 00z run. That’s what we need to watch. If you can allow that to stay more consolidated with a bit of H5 curl, you can escalate things pretty fast. 

Ya RRFS is nice looks like AI output , like you said close to much more

[Baroclinic Zone]

Could we also be seeing some latent heat release out of the gulf? This thing is forming a low down there.

[Baroclinic Zone]

ICON not as robust with the vorticity but definitely made a positive trend from 18z.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

RRFS gets warning snows to HVN

[WeatherGeek2025]

my forecast

[Typhoon Tip]

Like I told Ray 10   20  pages ago or whenever the hell it was we’ve been correcting shit west all season.  Not saying that’s gonna happen. Just I wouldn’t be surprised.

Far be it for anybody in this NOAA administration to come up with an argument of flying special sound emissions in the western Atlantic to see what it would do if we dumped a bunch of latent heat into that region…

Gotta be careful with the nam though because it’s got a northwest bias in Western Atlanta at this time range

Just some pros and cons

[dendrite]

Yeah NNE has been fooled by a zonked 12k run late in the game many a time.

Looks like the rgem is a tick east.

[Spanks45]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

RRFS gets warning snows to HVN

Looked like it had some banding showing up on our side of CT....its probably wrong, but something fun to look at. I looked at the 18z EURO, even that run the whole system looked a little different than just some strung out system racing off shore. Who knows, guess we can sit back and hope this whole thing pulls a surprise, sort of luke that storm from 2000? Cant remember the date to be honest....

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

RGEM with a pretty sizable tick east lol

[dendrite]

You can see how the 12km really curls the tail of the vortmax in at 48hr versus what the icon and rgem do.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah NNE has been fooled by a zonked 12k run late in the game many a time.

Looks like the rgem is a tick east.

East and weak. Went from borderline warning for a lot of SNE to low end advisory 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

RGEM with a pretty sizable tick east lol

It has tomorrows snow so much further east too , weird 

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

RGEM with a pretty sizable tick east lol

Was the furthest west model, so not surprising.