Storm potential January 18th-19th

[snowman19]

Womp womp womp. 6z GFS, full on, all out cave to the EPS. Who didn’t see that one coming? 

[MJO812]

43 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Womp womp womp. 6z GFS, full on, all out cave to the EPS. Who didn’t see that one coming? 

Thread made , storm gone. Happens all the time.

But yep gfs is a horrendous model. It did have support from the CMC.

[MJO812]

Gfs and gefs are horrendous. Just as we thought the models were trending to the gfs. Always need the Euro on your side. 

 

Saturday might be a bigger deal than Sunday. 

[MJO812]

19 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Why the hell did you make a thread? Smfh

Bump

[Dan76]

Need to bump to FEB

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Need to bump to FEB

Maybe end of January 

[Dan76]

Seen this movie before.

[snowman19]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs and gefs are horrendous. Just as we thought the models were trending to the gfs. Always need the Euro on your side. 

 

Saturday might be a bigger deal than Sunday. 

Saturday may be an inch or so? The issue is snow ratios are not going to be good….likely less than 10:1. The boundary layer is going to suck, it’s going to be in the upper 30’s even up here where I am. The new EURO/EPS didn’t budge for Sunday

[Violentweatherfan]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m going with the EPS and op EURO on this one

Also the MJO will be in phase 6 which does not favor snow for the east coast 

[Violentweatherfan]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe end of January 

The MJO will be in a more favorable phase by then 

[EastonSN+]

33 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Seen this movie before.

Most of the time persistence wins.

For last winter and this winter to date there have been two themes:

Dry

Cold

Warm ups are short and snowfalls are light to moderate.

[RU848789]

So, just woke up and saw that there were only a handful of posts for 6Z relative to the dozens at 0Z, which told me that the threat must have been reduced and the GFS must have caved as the very snowy outlier and we'd have a 1-2" threat at best (and similarly, that there had not been a thread created for this thread on 33).  Not far off, lol - and I'll still take 1-2", hoping the Euro/GFS/ICON are wrong in showing very little except maybe <1" for the coast and the AI models have it right with a 1-3" event (AIFS) or even a 3-5" event (AIGFS, if the surface temps are too high on that model as many have said).  Not ready to believe the nice RGEM/RRFS at the end of their ranges yet (or the snowless NAM - same reason).  

[BoulderWX]

This board is hilarious. To see the way people reactive from 0Z to 6Z is hilarious and could be a case study in psychology. 
 

OT - but light snow ATM

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

So, just woke up and saw that there were only a handful of posts for 6Z relative to the dozens at 0Z, which told me that the threat must have been reduced and the GFS must have caved as the very snowy outlier and we'd have a 1-2" threat at best (and similarly, that there had not been a thread created for this thread on 33).  Not far off, lol - and I'll still take 1-2", hoping the Euro/GFS/ICON are wrong in showing very little except maybe <1" for the coast and the AI models have it right with a 1-3" event (AIFS) or even a 3-5" event (AIGFS, if the surface temps are too high on that model as many have said).  Not ready to believe the nice RGEM/RRFS at the end of their ranges yet (or the snowless NAM - same reason).  

Yeah, I look at this as an opportunity for a light event. 

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

So, just woke up and saw that there were only a handful of posts for 6Z relative to the dozens at 0Z, which told me that the threat must have been reduced and the GFS must have caved as the very snowy outlier and we'd have a 1-2" threat at best (and similarly, that there had not been a thread created for this thread on 33).  Not far off, lol - and I'll still take 1-2", hoping the Euro/GFS/ICON are wrong in showing very little except maybe <1" for the coast and the AI models have it right with a 1-3" event (AIFS) or even a 3-5" event (AIGFS, if the surface temps are too high on that model as many have said).  Not ready to believe the nice RGEM/RRFS at the end of their ranges yet (or the snowless NAM - same reason).  

Its difficult to believe any solutions right now. Over all the models are having an unusually difficult time with this pattern. The area of precip on Saturday is so limited along with temps borderline in some areas - I doubt most areas south of I-80 will see more than Trace amounts and only in some locations. Sunday ?  Will determine after 12Z model runs.

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Also the MJO will be in phase 6 which does not favor snow for the east coast 

Nope

[Krs4Lfe]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nope

I hate to be the one that says it. But it needs to be said. Winter has shown its cards. It got off to a great start with above average snowfall in December and well below average temperatures. But since then, we have been warm for nearly the entire month of January. No snow threats have worked out for us. While it will become cold starting this weekend, this weekend snow threat will not work out and the Euro was right once again. Time to wrap it up, folks.