Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[yotaman]

9 hours ago, SUNYGRAD said:

I believe an all-time of 104 is in jeopardy in Greensboro either JULY 3rd or the 4th, we shall see-

I believe the highest temperature ever recorded in Raleigh, North Carolina was 106 °F which occurred just two years on July 5, 2024.

New Bern is also 106 but it occurred in 1950's. It has been awhile since we hit 100.

[olafminesaw]

Not cool. Not cool at all. 

[eyewall]

This is the highest I have ever seen in my point and click:

[SUNYGRAD]

It will be interesting to see how high heat indices are too.  One thing that could keep temps down a few degrees is any thunderstorms or complexes----but this could increase the heat index some-----even with some daytime mixing.  I think the highest I saw several years ago was 122 F down/around Fayetteville.  

[SUNYGRAD]

Daily records for Raleigh-Durham Airport Temperature Records

[olafminesaw]

41 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said:

It will be interesting to see how high heat indices are too.  One thing that could keep temps down a few degrees is any thunderstorms or complexes----but this could increase the heat index some-----even with some daytime mixing.  I think the highest I saw several years ago was 122 F down/around Fayetteville.  

More of a (relatively) dry heat/strong cap to prevent convective complexes.

[SUNYGRAD]

4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

More of a (relatively) dry heat/strong cap to prevent convective complexes.

Hmmmm. This for the 2nd, not the 3rd or 4th.  Hard to pinpoint local or even moving clusters at this point going into the 3rd or 4th, let alone one model output this far out. Day of or overnight should/could have more bearing on indices is what I was thinking earlier.  Agree dry some, but my opinion is this is not particular strong CAP given the LI, PW.  Temperature slight increase.  Some marginal instability around -2 with LI.  I believe some of the other modeling that I looked at has some convection for the 3rd and 4th.  

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Let it be known that literally no one called for this..... but we will for sure take it.

 

What a beautiful surprise this morning.

[Upstate Tiger]

6 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

Let it be known that literally no one called for this..... but we will for sure take it.

 

What a beautiful surprise this morning.

Glad for you all that are getting the rain!  Much needed.  
 

We missed it by about 20 miles.  Hopefully we get some tomorrow. 

[GaWx]

 The latest Euro and Icon are suggesting that H5 heights will reach a max of ~598 dm at some point over GSO within the July 1-3 period. They have as much as 597 dm as of 8AM. A 597 would more than likely be approaching the all time record high for there at 12Z, which often runs a couple of dm lower than an afternoon max. For comparison, it reached ~597-598 dm at GSO at 12Z on 7/7/1986 per old maps I saw yesterday. I have no way of knowing if that’s the highest on record at 12Z though without spending at least many hours going through numerous maps.

[EarlGrey]

That heat building from the west for a July 4 torch fest.

[olafminesaw]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The latest Euro and Icon are suggesting that H5 heights will reach a max of ~598 dm at some point over GSO within the July 1-3 period. They have as much as 597 dm as of 8AM. A 597 would more than likely be approaching the all time record high for there at 12Z, which often runs a couple of dm lower than an afternoon max. For comparison, it reached ~597-598 dm at GSO at 12Z on 7/7/1986 per old maps I saw yesterday. I have no way of knowing if that’s the highest on record at 12Z though without spending at least many hours going through numerous maps.

Looks like Top ten. Here's the data

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundingclimov2/

[Avdave]

12 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

More of a (relatively) dry heat/strong cap to prevent convective complexes.

Yes I agree. There wont be too many storms popping up with that kind of reading or and even through the upcoming furnace blast.   Definitely will be some records that will be set though. 

Stay hydrated everyone

[SUNYGRAD]

"The combination of strong subsidence, lack of clouds, dry ground,
and a downslope low and mid level flow - could potentially yield a
near historical heat event bringing very dangerous conditions. Some
guidance is now forecasting a few disturbances in the NW-N flow
aloft riding into the region by Friday and Saturday the 4th. This
may be enough to trigger either widely scattered or scattered (20-30
percent chance) of afternoon or early nighttime thunderstorms
perhaps bringing some temporary cooling."

[eyewall]

5 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said:

"The combination of strong subsidence, lack of clouds, dry ground,
and a downslope low and mid level flow - could potentially yield a
near historical heat event bringing very dangerous conditions. Some
guidance is now forecasting a few disturbances in the NW-N flow
aloft riding into the region by Friday and Saturday the 4th. This
may be enough to trigger either widely scattered or scattered (20-30
percent chance) of afternoon or early nighttime thunderstorms
perhaps bringing some temporary cooling."

Doughts can create that kind of a feedback loop for sure. 

[SUNYGRAD]

9 hours ago, Avdave said:

Yes I agree. There wont be too many storms popping up with that kind of reading or and even through the upcoming furnace blast.   Definitely will be some records that will be set though. 

Stay hydrated everyone

National Weather Service

[SUNYGRAD]

Generally hard to forecast in advance, sometimes even during the event, but this weather pattern going into next week reminded me of Derechos.  Rather good reading and understanding of aspects of them here- Facts About Derechos - Very Damaging Windstorms.  There are other weblinks within this document too.  Hard to say if anyone in some of the target areas, including NC, will see one----just something to be mind of.  I do remember the 2012 event here in parts of NC, but do not recall any noteworthy events since then----at least here?  One thing I learned is the definition has recently updated for Derecho-