Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[yotaman]

9 hours ago, SUNYGRAD said:

I believe an all-time of 104 is in jeopardy in Greensboro either JULY 3rd or the 4th, we shall see-

I believe the highest temperature ever recorded in Raleigh, North Carolina was 106 °F which occurred just two years on July 5, 2024.

New Bern is also 106 but it occurred in 1950's. It has been awhile since we hit 100.

[olafminesaw]

Not cool. Not cool at all. 

[eyewall]

This is the highest I have ever seen in my point and click:

[SUNYGRAD]

It will be interesting to see how high heat indices are too.  One thing that could keep temps down a few degrees is any thunderstorms or complexes----but this could increase the heat index some-----even with some daytime mixing.  I think the highest I saw several years ago was 122 F down/around Fayetteville.  

[SUNYGRAD]

Daily records for Raleigh-Durham Airport Temperature Records

[olafminesaw]

41 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said:

It will be interesting to see how high heat indices are too.  One thing that could keep temps down a few degrees is any thunderstorms or complexes----but this could increase the heat index some-----even with some daytime mixing.  I think the highest I saw several years ago was 122 F down/around Fayetteville.  

More of a (relatively) dry heat/strong cap to prevent convective complexes.

[SUNYGRAD]

4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

More of a (relatively) dry heat/strong cap to prevent convective complexes.

Hmmmm. This for the 2nd, not the 3rd or 4th.  Hard to pinpoint local or even moving clusters at this point going into the 3rd or 4th, let alone one model output this far out. Day of or overnight should/could have more bearing on indices is what I was thinking earlier.  Agree dry some, but my opinion is this is not particular strong CAP given the LI, PW.  Temperature slight increase.  Some marginal instability around -2 with LI.  I believe some of the other modeling that I looked at has some convection for the 3rd and 4th.