Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[WXNewton]

Overnight runs were not great, ops and ens are all more in agreement with less wintry precip at this point. 

00z-EPS

00z- CMCE

06z-GEFS

[NorthHillsWx]

10 hours ago, BooneWX said:

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This might go down as one of the funniest maps ever. I cannot believe they published this almost a week out 

[NorthHillsWx]

One word comes to mind looking at overnight modeling: spring 

[eyewall]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

One word comes to mind looking at overnight modeling: spring 

Yep no makeup storm. We will have to wait until at least next year. 

[NorthHillsWx]

7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yep no makeup storm. We will have to wait until at least next year. 

Watching yesterday’s virga didn’t qualify as a makeup storm to you? 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

One word comes to mind looking at overnight modeling: spring 

 The threat of a mid-month winter storm for your area on the operationals has obviously come down as I posted. However, todays still cold and after the next few days’ of non-torch warming, it still looks mainly cold up your way for most of 2/12-15 (much colder anomalies than down here). Plus highly beneficial rain appears to be headed into much of the drought parched SE though sadly probably not down here. Then after a 6 day warming, it cools off substantially again with no sign of sustained warmth for late month into early March. With this, I expect at least one more wintry threat for much of especially well inland NC as the WPO and AO fall back some  A key though will be the PNA. It’s headed for unfavorable stout negative territory, but will it rise back to closer to neutral late month? PNA has been mainly over performing vs largely poor predictions.

[SUNYGRAD]

Models are unhappy...

 

[NorthHillsWx]

46 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The threat of a mid-month winter storm for your area on the operationals has obviously come down as I posted. However, todays still cold and after the next few days’ of non-torch warming, it still looks mainly cold up your way for most of 2/12-15 (much colder anomalies than down here). Plus highly beneficial rain appears to be headed into much of the drought parched SE though sadly probably not down here. Then after a 6 day warming, it cools off substantially again with no sign of sustained warmth for late month into early March. With this, I expect at least one more wintry threat for much of especially well inland NC as the WPO and AO fall back some  A key though will be the PNA. It’s headed for unfavorable stout negative territory, but will it rise back to closer to neutral late month? PNA has been mainly over performing vs largely poor predictions.

Up and down and showers- sounds like… Spring 

Jokes aside it’s been a remarkable cold pattern the east coast has been locked in and no one should expect cold like this to continue as long as it has in ANY winter. But seeing the pacific firehose into west coast again tells me it’s done, and any cold shots likely will be followed by significant warmups. A spring pattern going into mid-late February doesn’t necessarily mean a warm pattern. Spring is up and down but the ups are more significant than the past couple months. If RDU hadn’t failed at the last storm I think every major city on east coast would finish above normal snowfall and below normal temps for the winter. As it stands I think Raleigh is the only city on the east coast BN for snowfall (seasonal, not to date) 

[HKY_WX]

The models giveth and the models taketh away... I think there could still be some hope for the last week of February into March. Still early to be calling Winter at this point. That said, I'm going to enjoy the thaw. It's been a fun few months of Winter but my body needs a break. Also i'm tired of trying to entertain a 5 year old indoors.

[olafminesaw]

[WXNewton]

12z CMC comes in a little bit colder and has some ice around the I40 north area. This was actually the coldest run the Canadian has had in several runs, it usually does good at sniffing out the CAD, so this might lead to other models showing a colder solution as we get closer. Definitely an outlier at this point, but might not be too far off as far as the wedge placement looks. 

[olafminesaw]

Severe or ice, who knows?

[WXNewton]

12z GEFS definitely building the high in stronger this run, might still look decent for WNC.

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Severe or ice, who knows?

Regardless, prospects of heavy qpf is potentially the most important news coming out of this as regards helping with the drought. The SE needs the rain!

[WXNewton]

12z GEFS definitely with a colder push and much more pronounced wedge this run, it's not over yet!

 

[olafminesaw]

9 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

12z GEFS definitely with a colder push and much more pronounced wedge this run, it's not over yet!

 

I do think it's over for significant snowfall, at least south of central VA. Would be an ice storm and anything significant seems like a stretch at this point in time

[BornAgain13]

12z CMC definitely colder and the GEFS came in better. Unreal swings of these models. They definitely dont have a clue yet

[WXNewton]

6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I do think it's over for significant snowfall, at least south of central VA. Would be an ice storm and anything significant seems like a stretch at this point in time

Yeah I agree, the track and setup pretty much scream Miller-B so if anything were to fall as anything frozen more than likely going it's to be zr or sleet. My point is the models don't have it figured out yet and a lot folks seem to be writing it off. I feel like anytime a wedge setup could happen we won't really have the answers until almost go time, especially if the models are somewhat close over the next few days with temps in the mid 30s.

[BooneWX]

I hope it trends warmer. I don’t see snow on the table with this one, and I’m more than fine missing out on ice. Just give me the beneficial rain and let it wash the salt off the road. I still have a sleet pack from 2 weeks ago that refuses to melt. 

[BornAgain13]

Euro AI is way south. Not sure if its still to warm for snow and ice? Or is it just rain

[WXNewton]

8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I hope it trends warmer. I don’t see snow on the table with this one, and I’m more than fine missing out on ice. Just give me the beneficial rain and let it wash the salt off the road. I still have a sleet pack from 2 weeks ago that refuses to melt. 

16 days today with sleet still in shady spots around the yard. I don't remember another time where it has remained for so long. 

[WXNewton]

9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Euro AI is way south. Not sure if its still to warm for snow and ice? Or is it just rain

Definitely cooled off some, but not much of a sign of a CAD. Looks suspicious to me that it would move that far south, but temps really don't reflect much of a change. 

[WXNewton]

12z Euro still likes a little chance at some flurries/snow showers Friday morning AVL to the sw MTNs.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

49 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I do think it's over for significant snowfall, at least south of central VA. Would be an ice storm and anything significant seems like a stretch at this point in time

That's one heck of a change and a darn good signal at this range. Models ingested something today that shook up things. Looks like everyone is trending south. This one still needs watching. If the Euro comes in way south, then we will put more faith in this abrupt change.

[WXNewton]

12z Euro shifts way south this run, I suspect EPS will reflect that as well. Still rain for most but CLT went from 58 at 6z to lower 40s this run. Continue to lead with ens at this point bc ops are still out there when they shift like this over a 6 hr period lol. 

[BornAgain13]

Just now, WXNewton said:

12z Euro shifts way south this run, I suspect EPS will reflect that as well. Still rain for most but CLT went from 58 at 6z to lower 40s this run.

Stronger CAD maybe? Wonder if the CMC is on to something 

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I hope it trends warmer. I don’t see snow on the table with this one, and I’m more than fine missing out on ice. Just give me the beneficial rain and let it wash the salt off the road. I still have a sleet pack from 2 weeks ago that refuses to melt. 

Very beneficial rains coming to much of SE over next 7 day period per these 12Z runs:

GEFS:

Euro:

GFS:

CMC:

[WXNewton]

6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Stronger CAD maybe? Wonder if the CMC is on to something 

Definitely stronger signal this run.

[olafminesaw]

EPS did trend colder, but need significantly colder air to get meaningful frozen precip. Would target mid-20s dewpoints  in place at least leading up to the event. CAD over performing often means temps held in the upper 30s instead of torching to the 50s around here, without a strong high and decently cold source air. Both are kinda meh on consensus right now

[WXNewton]

18 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

EPS did trend colder, but need significantly colder air to get meaningful frozen precip. Would target mid-20s dewpoints  in place at least leading up to the event. CAD over performing often means temps held in the upper 30s instead of torching to the 50s around here, without a strong high and decently cold source air. Both are kinda meh on consensus right now

At this point, I don't think it's as much of the strength of the high pressure as it is the amount cold air available to transport south. The overall picture definitely lends towards a cold rain, unless something changes with the depth of cold that will be available.