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Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026


BooneWX
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11 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Right now I think it is very plausible we see something out of this but I will caution that the warm nose almost always overpeforms and makes it farther inland than modeled. The pattern looks like it will be there but as always we live and die by the warm nose. 

Its early but not sure I see a scenario as LIKELY at the moment where RDU is in trouble with this as far as ptype.  I'd still be more worried about a miss than being too far W.

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GFS was amazing. Just goes to show we never know until til we get to at least 5 days out. I think this could be a case of the GFS showing this storm in the long range, losing it, and then coming back again once we get inside 5 days. Would love to see the Euro jump on board. Still cautious since this would be the GFS leading the way instead of the Euro.

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2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

GFS was amazing. Just goes to show we never know until til we get to at least 5 days out. I think this could be a case of the GFS showing this storm in the long range, losing it, and then coming back again once we get inside 5 days. Would love to see the Euro jump on board. Still cautious since this would be the GFS leading the way instead of the Euro.

What did the overnight EURO show?

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6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

GFS was amazing. Just goes to show we never know until til we get to at least 5 days out. I think this could be a case of the GFS showing this storm in the long range, losing it, and then coming back again once we get inside 5 days. Would love to see the Euro jump on board. Still cautious since this would be the GFS leading the way instead of the Euro.

It was amazing.  We have seen the GFS sniff out storms well in advance in the recent past.  It did a good job with the February 2025 event and the mainly coastal event in January 2025.

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5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

UK actually looks worse..

UK is just wacky at times.  I would not be concerned at this range.  I have as matter of fact said the past decade whatever the UK does the Euro does the opposite.  I have not kept tabs closely but feels since about 2015 when one makes a notable move at 12 or 00Z the other seems to do the reverse.  UK has given many of us along the EC hope only for the Euro to say no.  The old rule of them moving in tandem holds less frequently these days

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

As much as I love the GFS with 6"+ up here, gonna be hard to get on board unless the Euro does.

Yeah, some big differences in surface low location to resolve. Unclear if along 85 or the coastal plain will be the spot to be just yet

ecmwf_mslpa_us_37.png

gfs_mslpa_us_18.png

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Back in the olden days, didn’t the UK sort of hint at where the EURO was going to end up on its next run? I feel like I remember folks making those connections back in 2014-2018 when we were tracking storms left and right

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4 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

Back in the olden days, didn’t the UK sort of hint at where the EURO was going to end up on its next run? I feel like I remember folks making those connections back in 2014-2018 when we were tracking storms left and right

Scroll up and see what SnowGoose said about that.

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