Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[BornAgain13]

Models looked awful last night and now all of a sudden the Euro shows a little something for Sunday now.  This is a tiresome hobby lol

[NorthHillsWx]

6 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Good thing some of us got that heavy rain because the next 10 days look precipitation less east of the Apps. 

Those of us who got 0.00” from last weekends rain are not going to be in good shape 

[stormwatcherJ]

Anyone wanna bet that after this dry, cold spell we'll start to get some moisture moving through...and then it won't be cold enough?! A classic NC frustrating winter. 

[NorthHillsWx]

6 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said:

Anyone wanna bet that after this dry, cold spell we'll start to get some moisture moving through...and then it won't be cold enough?! A classic NC frustrating winter. 

Except this year it’ll just warm up and be dry. I don’t think it can turn wet again until La Niña is done, finished, cooked

[WNC_Fort]

7 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said:

Anyone wanna bet that after this dry, cold spell we'll start to get some moisture moving through...and then it won't be cold enough?! A classic NC frustrating winter. 

Tale as old as time

[WinstonSalemArlington]

20 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Except this year it’ll just warm up and be dry. I don’t think it can turn wet again until La Niña is done, finished, cooked

Bingo! The story of this winter is not a lack of cold; it’s profound drought. 

[NorthHillsWx]

6z euro was interesting for Sunday 

[BooneWX]

The footprint for Sunday screams overrunning on a few models, which is the only reason I’ll hold out some hope. We wouldn’t be remotely close to a final solution if it’s an overrunning event. 

[WXNewton]

47 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

The footprint for Sunday screams overrunning on a few models, which is the only reason I’ll hold out some hope. We wouldn’t be remotely close to a final solution if it’s an overrunning event. 

I thought exact same thing, I think once we get Thursday's system out of here, the models can handle that wave better. Here's the Euro trend over the past 6 runs, definitely digging the wave further West and deeper each run. A little more tilt and further digging, this thing could look pretty nice IMO. 

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, WXNewton said:

I thought exact same thing, I think once we get Thursday's system out of here, the models can handle that wave better. Here's the Euro trend over the past 6 runs, definitely digging the wave further West and deeper each run. A little more tilt and further digging, this thing could look pretty nice IMO. 

And some of it's timing, further west means slower means more spacing between the waves and more ability to develop and for the trough to tilt negative 

[BooneWX]

An overrunning event Sunday would be the most ideal way to have an overrunning event. Most of the time those setups are rather marginal and you’re fighting modest rates, but it’s already going to be cold Sunday. Throw evaporative cooling into the mix and we’re talking about some higher than normal ratios outside the mountains. 

[olafminesaw]

41 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

An overrunning event Sunday would be the most ideal way to have an overrunning event. Most of the time those setups are rather marginal and you’re fighting modest rates, but it’s already going to be cold Sunday. Throw evaporative cooling into the mix and we’re talking about some higher than normal ratios outside the mountains. 

To be pedantic, it's not really overrunning since there's no warm air advection and no warm air aloft. The northern stream is squashing any warm air from the gulf but also squashing moisture 

[olafminesaw]

Being near the left entrance region of the jet streak is favorable for us, and I would not be surprised to see some good trends at the surface as we get closer

[CaryWx]

Have to like where that vort's headed. Could change on next run again though.  

[wncsnow]

Just don't see it happening as much as we are trying to will it to a better solution. Best case might be flurries or a dusting outside the mountains. 

[Upstate Tiger]

Little surprised we’re not seeing a better surface reflection on the GFS.  

[Brick Tamland]

I would definitely believe the Euro if it has something pop up inside 7 days over any other model. I am to the point now where I think it's useless to really look at anything else besides what the Euro shows inside 7 days. Everything else is a mirage when it comes to winter storms here, especially the GFS at day 10. It loves to show big storms then only for them to go poof a day or two later.

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS trended towards euro but just not quite there.

[Brick Tamland]

9 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS trended towards euro but just not quite there.

GFS is clueless outside 7 days. Then it waits for what the Euro shows and steps in line with it like the Euro is its daddy.

[Brick Tamland]

RAP had a little something less than 48 hours out.

 

[gamecockinupstateSC]

UKMET says hold my beer. 

[olafminesaw]

10 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

RAP had a little something less than 48 hours out.

 

As does the HRRR. As with the Sunday event, jet stream dynamics coming into play, often only gets picked up by short range models. Not saying something will happen on Thursday, but just something to keep an eye on

[BooneWX]

24 minutes ago, gamecockinupstateSC said:

UKMET says hold my beer. 

Respectfully to all you folks down east, but I may crash out in a historic way if I watch Southport score again.

[Brick Tamland]

19 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

As does the HRRR. As with the Sunday event, jet stream dynamics coming into play, often only gets picked up by short range models. Not saying something will happen on Thursday, but just something to keep an eye on

[SnowDawg]

GEFS looks pretty good starting this weekend. Interested if it will consolidate around a single threat/timing because there are members showing snow anywhere from the 17th-21st. 

[BooneWX]

The biggest fly in the ointment for all of us is that we accomplished an awesome ridge out west but it’s tilted to the east at the top. That’s what’s screwing us down the line. You can’t get any energy to drop into a better spot than the plains when the ridge is kicking the energy over Hudson Bay before dropping it in.

[NorthHillsWx]

If downeast NC and SC score major storms two winters in a row while the foothills remain blanked since 2022…

[BooneWX]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If downeast NC and SC score major storms two winters in a row while the foothills remain blanked since 2022…

One of these days we’re going to get a juiced up low running just inland of the coast with a 1035 high over the top and I’m going to get banned from this forum when I see the first I-85 north snarky remark. 

[Brick Tamland]

Euro is bone dry for Thursday.

[wncsnow]

Congrats @GaWx