Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[Met1985]

23 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

Mountain friends please ignore this thread.

I've got us covered bro.

[BornAgain13]

FWIW, the 18z GEFS looks good!

[WXNewton]

Wow, that prevent defense at the end was something...If only we can score a winter storm as easy as the Rams did at the end. 

[BooneWX]

19 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Wow, that prevent defense at the end was something...If only we can score a winter storm as easy as the Rams did at the end. 

This. I’ll never understand that mindset from coaches. I get the logic behind it but it rarely works out against a good nfl offense playing opposite of you. Nonetheless, this is the first time in almost a decade it’s looking up as we head into an offseason. Hell of a game from McMillan, Coker, Bryce and Jackson. Get a pass rusher and we may be much improved next season. 

[strongwxnc]

This. I’ll never understand that mindset from coaches. I get the logic behind it but it rarely works out against a good nfl offense playing opposite of you. Nonetheless, this is the first time in almost a decade it’s looking up as we head into an offseason. Hell of a game from McMillan, Coker, Bryce and Jackson. Get a pass rusher and we may be much improved next season. 

Agreed. Here’s to a fruitful offseason!


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[BornAgain13]

That look on the 0Z ICON was a thing of beauty at H5. But hardly anything at the surface, outside of the Mts... Not sure why.

[wncsnow]

If only the GFS was a good model

[BornAgain13]

Oz GFS delivers another good Winter Storm for the mountains and on into VA for Wave 1

[BornAgain13]

Wave 2 is a dud per GFS 

[SnowDawg]

Idk but seems to me like on the runs the 1st one is stronger the 2nd one doesn’t work on the GFS.

[NC_hailstorm]

585-588 dm in the Pac NW and a ULL with 519 dm into the southeast that's nuts.

If it digs more and gets a few more ticks west,look out.

[BornAgain13]

Euro finally shows a little love.

[Met1985]

On 1/2/2026 at 2:04 PM, Met1985 said:

12z euro. It's in the mid to long range and we've seen what the points look like but this is kind of what we want.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

I'm bumping this because the Euro did pretty damn well with the H5 look at this range. Yes I was told the surface was barely cool but this is really a good indicator from the Euro at nearly 10 days out and beyond.  Surface was too warm at this range but that's been the problem for a lot of the season with these cold fronts.  Now starting today we are well below normal and possibly looking at multiple snow threats.  Some people talk shit and some people know their shit...

[BornAgain13]

Euro finally gets close to the GFS and then the GFS looks awful at 6z lol

[wncsnow]

6Z euro only gave the mountains snow but cut back from 0Z. I'm sure there there will be more changes today. 

[wncsnow]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

I'm bumping this because the Euro did pretty damn well with the H5 look at this range. Yes I was told the surface was barely cool but this is really a good indicator from the Euro at nearly 10 days out and beyond.  Surface was too warm at this range but that's been the problem for a lot of the season with these cold fronts.  Now starting today we are well below normal and possibly looking at multiple snow threats.  Some people talk shit and some people know their shit...

Yeah multiple threats between Jan 10-20...

[BooneWX]

Lots to like in that overnight guidance. The Euro op has quite a bit of support as well. It’s been a while since we’ve had a Manitoba Mauler. Just a little more digging south and west and boom!

[wncsnow]

18 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Lots to like in that overnight guidance. The Euro op has quite a bit of support as well. It’s been a while since we’ve had a Manitoba Mauler. Just a little more digging south and west and boom!

I'm afraid that will be the best Euro run we see. Guidance is already shifting north with it. Hopefully the south west trend will pick back up later..

[Upstate Tiger]

GSP with nice AFD this morning for those interested  

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

 

 

[Met1985]

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Yeah multiple threats between Jan 10-20...

Hope it works out for you. 

[wncsnow]

4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Hope it works out for you. 

I bet you do

[Met1985]

10 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I bet you do

Yall need all the luck yall can get. Nothing really screams potential on yalls side of the mountains because of downsloping.

[wncsnow]

I'm not overly enthused but at least we aren't torching anymore 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[wncsnow]

Deeper digging trend is still there on the GEFS

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Yall need all the luck yall can get. Nothing really screams potential on yalls side of the mountains because of downsloping.

A digging Manitoba Mauler kinda does tho. Just would need some adjustments to maximize the surface potential. 

[BooneWX]

Fine again with where we’re at at this juncture but also still more interested in trailing energy next weekend moreso than Thursday. 

[Met1985]

Just now, BooneWX said:

A digging Manitoba Mauler kinda does tho. Just would need some adjustments to maximize the surface potential. 

For yall to really score the low really needs to dig and a negative tilt happen the sooner the better. I'm just afraid that a NW flow even heavy moisture laden will be difficult for the foothills.  I mean something is better than nothing. 

[Met1985]

7 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Fine again with where we’re at at this juncture but also still more interested in trailing energy next weekend moreso than Thursday. 

For yall yes because it's a south/north flow. 

[BooneWX]

Looking a lot better to be in Tenn and Kentucky, which is good. They never see snow. Has to be decades at this point!