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Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026


BooneWX
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8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:


1126ef25e333c1a40eb0b6b9b321f7b8.jpg
a5437fda53834abafa6d84bfc783f4a3.jpg

Someone more intelligent than me would have to confirm but with 0z on top and 12z below, we gained more west Atlantic ridging. You can see the pressure it puts on the energy and nudges it too far west. The low it spawns cuts with it.


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Just that map a lone looks so good though for the 2nd storm although its to warm at the surface. 

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With the first storm might have to pull for more ULL driven snow as opposed to getting the coastal to develop the way it did on the GFS. Maybe it’s right, but as @olafminesawpointed out the GFS seems to get a little overzealous with this sometimes.

From here in NGA that euro run was pretty good for storm 2 but I think we’d all just want it to be a little less amped like last night. If the trough digs that hard there the ridging out front is going to respond and make thermals more iffy without stronger CAD.

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I think one of the big issues with storm 1 is its coming down too far east and doesn't have time to dig enough to our west and amplify. If we can move the trough slightly west and continue the trend of having a taller western ridge we could still score from that one. 

 

 

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I wouldn’t be shocked if we trend firmly towards the first event not delivering soon and the models really hone in on system 2. There’s definitely a path for storm 1, but my thinking:

 

Current mess outside - initiates the changes we need late weekend. Pattern becomes more favorable. 
 

Storm 1 - lays out the plates, fine china and silverware. Establishes cold profiles and makes way for storm 2. 
 

Storm 2 - Delivery

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