Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[BornAgain13]

[BooneWX]

Gonna be some gnashing of teeth the next week or so I’m afraid. It’s going to be interesting to see this block develop but as the pacific gets squared away, I think we’re going to be working through some table setters. I’m bullish on our odds once we get the PNA to pop though. 

[BooneWX]

Eye candy


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[stormy]

4 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Eye candy


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I was just getting ready to post this.  This is close to where the EURO was 24 hours ago.

[Upstate Tiger]

Man that is some major league cold spilling into the U.S. at the end of the GFS.  Canada is in the freezer.  

[BooneWX]

26 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Man that is some major league cold spilling into the U.S. at the end of the GFS.  Canada is in the freezer.  

We’re building towards cross polar flow on almost the entire 12z suite

[BooneWX]

It’s the GEFS that I trash, yes, but interesting to see the ensemble members spitting out some absolute bangers in that 1/9 range. 
 

Euro AI with a nice I-85 storm in that range as well. 

[BooneWX]

Euro is very close to burying the upper south east on 12z at 1/8…. Light event verbatim on the op but boy was it close to crushing everyone. 

[Met1985]

Euro brings everyone back to reality. 

[Met1985]

12z euro

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[wncsnow]

Warms up before another cutter around the 11th was hoping that would stay south this run. Still time to watch it but lots to iron out.

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Warms up before another cutter around the 11th was hoping that would stay south this run. Still time to watch it but lots to iron out.

I definitely think we’ll have to endure a brief mild period while that +PNA builds. Gotta hope in the immediate long range that our -NAO bullies the pattern a bit. I think it could but the Ohio Valley to the Northeast are certainly favored at the moment.

[wncsnow]

30 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I definitely think we’ll have to endure a brief mild period while that +PNA builds. Gotta hope in the immediate long range that our -NAO bullies the pattern a bit. I think it could but the Ohio Valley to the Northeast are certainly favored at the moment.

Yep it's a decent look but honestly last year looked better at this stage. 

[BooneWX]

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[GaWx]

33 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yep it's a decent look but honestly last year looked better at this stage. 

The historic January of 2025 looking better isn’t surprising as it had nearly wall to wall intense cold along with major winter storms in the SE and thus is always going to be hard to match in a general sense. The Euro Weeklies were much colder in the SE US for Jan at this point.

Edit: But otherwise:

12Z ensemble means update for late week 2: good news overall for E US cold and also snow lovers:

1. GEFS H5 improved somewhat vs 0Z/6Z with a slightly higher PNA though it’s still a -PNA. The best news is that it’s significantly colder with BN temps and it’s snowier in much of the region.

2. EPS is very similar to the 0Z, which makes that good news because it’s chilly along with a nice +PNA. No caving whatsoever to the ugly 0Z/6Z GEFS.