January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Chris78]

The 12z  GEFS looks really good for later in the month.

Really honking for next weekend.

Majority of the snow mean is from day 9 onward.

 

[87storms]

15 minutes ago, benjammin said:

The last time the Bullets/Wizards won 50+ games was the 78-79 season immediately after winning the NBA championship. They lost their finals rematch to the Supersonics in game 5 at the Cap Centre. I was there as a kid...

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk


 

Loved the Cap Center…my dad used to work the Caps and Bullets games amongst other events. Miss those arcade games at the concourse level as well.

18z incoming…

[stormtracker]

Well, 18z NAM isn't GFS like.

[Shad]

will the 18z GFS get us hyped again?

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, 18z NAM isn't GFS like.

Doesn’t looks that much different 

[soadforecasterx]

To me Nam looks to be more in the GFS camp then the others. 

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, 18z NAM isn't GFS like.

It was better than the 12z, looked pretty decent actually.

[DDweatherman]

4 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Enabling Ji for years has created this curse on MA. Snow gods aren’t giving any snow around here until they sacrifice his bitch ass. 
 

His alter ego Facebook page sucks ass too
 

 

Holy shit this needs to be tagged/pinned for all to remember. Pedro Serrano would sacrifice ji instead of a live chicken. 

[Rvarookie]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Holy shit this needs to be tagged/pinned for all to remember. Pedro Serrano would sacrifice ji instead of a live chicken. 

It was quickly moved to banter, yet Ji will continue to post in here and the curse will live on

[eduggs]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, 18z NAM isn't GFS like.

Agreed (for Sun/Mon). Overlaying them 18z looks more like the ECMWF. 12z looked closer to the GFS. Not a great start to 18z.

[LP08]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Agreed (for Sun/Mon). Overlaying them 18z looks more like the ECMWF. 12z looked closer to the GFS. Not a great start to 18z.

Unfortunately I agree, pretty damn close honestly. Not close to the GFS.

[TSSN+]

Just now, LP08 said:

Unfortunately I agree, pretty damn close honestly. Not close to the GFS.

Disagree. More ridging out west on Nam and piece of energy not as far SE in Canada. 

[Shad]

ICON improvement for Saturday snows for some folks

[nw baltimore wx]

Any chance we can put any weekend discussion in that thread?

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Disagree. More ridging out west on Nam and piece of energy not as far SE in Canada. 

You are wishcasting. The 18z is unmistakably a shift towards the ECMWF. But the differences are relatively minor and there's still time to improve this.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

You are wishcasting. The 18z is unmistakably a shift towards the ECMWF. But the differences are relatively minor and there's still time to improve this.

A shift towards the Euro? Not in the slightest. 12z NAM was worse than 18z NAM.

[Shad]

No improvements for Sunday on the ICON that I could tell

[stormtracker]

24 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Doesn’t looks that much different 

I think it is.  Trof isn’t as sharp and not oriented like the GFS

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Unfortunately I agree, pretty damn close honestly. Not close to the GFS.

Look at 84 nam vs 90 GFS. Trof position and sharpness not alike to me.  

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Look at 84 nam vs 90 GFS. Trof position and sharpness not alike to me.  

Looks like a higher ridge in the west in the nam.. unless my eyes are screwed up again 

[CAPE]

12km NAM is junk. Even worse at range. I don't even bother looking at it anymore.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Looks like a higher ridge in the west in the nam.. unless my eyes are screwed up again 

I don’t agree.  

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

12km NAM is junk. Even worse at range. I don't even bother looking at it anymore.

Was typing this then you sent it. Thank you. Let’s compare the major models we’re going to lend any kind of credibility to rather than the h84 12k NAM. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

12km NAM is junk. Even worse at range. I don't even bother looking at it anymore.

Correct.  I look because there’s nothing else.  And we all love data.  I’ve seen it change incrementally toward one way or the other plenty of times as it got closer in. 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Was typing this then you sent it. Thank you. Let’s compare the major models we’re going to lend any kind of credibility to rather than the h84 12k NAM. 

Why not?  We’re on a weather board and we love new data.  I’m not saying take it seriously at all.  No harm in looking for trends or using it as an assist.  We all know the NAM is a unserious JV model, especially at this range.  

[CAPE]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Correct.  I look because there’s nothing else.  And we all love data.  I’ve seen it change incrementally toward one way or the other plenty of times as it got closer in. 

Kinda like looking at a car wreck on a long drive? Fucking boring and haven't seen anything interesting for miles.

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I don’t agree.  

 My bad I meant it looks like the ridge is farther west on the Nam.  But. My eyes are bad without my contacts 

[stormtracker]

Just now, CAPE said:

Kinda like looking at a car wreck on a long drive? Fucking boring and haven't seen anything interesting for miles.

I mean, no joke,  yes.  

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I mean, no joke,  yes.  

I-70 across Kansas or even Ohio is what comes to mind. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

 My bad I meant it looks like the ridge is farther west on the Nam.  But. My eyes are bad without my contacts 

I’m on a phone so I could be totally wrong.  I think we all can agree, NAM doesn’t mean shit.