January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

Goodnight yall.  See yinz tomorrow.

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Goodnight yall.  See yinz tomorrow.

no shitty SV maps to send us off?

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

no shitty SV maps to send us off?

Not even worth it dude, trust me.  Storm well offshore

[Ji]

It does look like Maybe more seperation from energy in nw Canada?

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Not even worth it dude, trust me.  Storm well offshore

What hour are you? 

[Ji]

What hour are you? 

The hour we get a new hobby

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

What hour are you? 

162

[Ji]

Looks like we get no snow Saturday either

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

162

See you tomorrow then, damn

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Looks like we get no snow Saturday either

What’s new

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Looks like we get no snow Saturday either

With the other models they all backed off of Saturday and got better for Sunday. If the Euro backed off of Saturday here...it can either stay exactly in this spot or get better from here. We'll see...

[Ji]

With the other models they all backed off of Saturday and got better for Sunday. If the Euro backed off of Saturday here...it can either stay exactly in this spot or get better from here. We'll see...

I can’t tell you how Much I hate this model

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

I can’t tell you how Much I hate this model

The troll job last February was just another indictment of angst against it. Gonna be the good news model for a change show folks for 2 days and then say oops sowwwy--it invented a new way to troll!!

[ravensrule]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

Looks like we get no snow Saturday either

It gives us a 1/2”, and we aren’t far off from more.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, ravensrule said:

It gives us a 1/2”. 

What was it at 18z?

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What was it at 18z?

Don’t remember tbh. 

[Ji]

Euro looks interesting for the 24th through 28th

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Probably a wintery pattern shaping up. Here is the end of 0z GEFS. Nice cold, also looks like some more +PNA getting toward the end of January. My theory that central-ENSO-subsurface warmth (Kelvin wave) correlates with N. Pacific +PNA in the now-time is verifying, at least this time around.

[Ji]

EPS is snowier for weekend and next 2 weeks in total

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nice pattern. Not real strong anomalies, but things are where you want them for cold/snowstorms right in the middle of Winter. 

[Ji]

Best eps spike of the year

[Stormchaserchuck1]

0z EPS is actually real cold Jan 26-29

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6z NAM has a kicker diving into the Great Lakes

It's close though.. might do it

We need more wave spacing or 1st wave to be primary energy. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6z GFS a miss

2" for Richmond - Va beach

[CAPE]

Kinda saw that coming. A bit more in line with the rest of guidance for now. We got time. Watch the Euro make a big shift NW over the next few runs lol.

[aldie 22]

Best part of never being in the game....no heartbreak when the rug pull comes. 

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Best part of never being in the game....no heartbreak when the rug pull comes. 

Never get too invested when the GFS is all alone.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

So what’s our next window? Jan 25 for a potential SWFE?

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

So what’s our next window? Jan 25 for a potential SWFE?

Oz Euro had an overrunning event that was a hit from PA border north next Saturday. I would expect changes there the way the models flip around. Of course, that could be gone at 12z too since the Euro isn't above mimicking the Gfs.

[GreyHat]

5 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Not even worth it dude, trust me.  Storm well offshore

Days ago the GFS had it going from the NC OTS. It was never coming close enough to the coast. The trough is wide and the storm is weak.