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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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With the other models they all backed off of Saturday and got better for Sunday. If the Euro backed off of Saturday here...it can either stay exactly in this spot or get better from here. We'll see...

I can’t tell you how Much I hate this model
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Probably a wintery pattern shaping up. Here is the end of 0z GEFS. Nice cold, also looks like some more +PNA getting toward the end of January. My theory that central-ENSO-subsurface warmth (Kelvin wave) correlates with N. Pacific +PNA in the now-time is verifying, at least this time around.

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4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

So what’s our next window? Jan 25 for a potential SWFE?

Oz Euro had an overrunning event that was a hit from PA border north next Saturday. I would expect changes there the way the models flip around. Of course, that could be gone at 12z too since the Euro isn't above mimicking the Gfs.

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5 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Not even worth it dude, trust me.  Storm well offshore

Days ago the GFS had it going from the NC OTS. It was never coming close enough to the coast. The trough is wide and the storm is weak.

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