January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

Gem light, but just misses the big one.

[Chris78]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Meh up here.

If we had this look at 120 hours I'd take my chances this creeps north.

[Solution Man]

Something cooking @ 228

[stormtracker]

Yeah, this one is an INVEST 01

 

[Ji]

[Scraff]

Getting good vibes on the GFS…

[stormtracker]

GFS trying something at 250 ish (lol), but it's gonna be too warm

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

If we had this look at 120 hours I'd take my chances this creeps north.

These days north trend rooting could breaketh the heart...

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS trying something at 250 ish (lol), but it's gonna be too warm

With the High Pressure pulling off the Virginia coast, you knew we had no chance.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

With the High Pressure pulling off the Virginia coast, you knew we had no chance.

It's Cape's fault.

[mitchnick]

Might go back to snow, but it's an unbelievable scenario. 

[Solution Man]

Ice to rain to snow then she gone

[Ji]

How did this miss phasing lol

[mitchnick]

We are snake bit with this lousy pattern that has established itself this winter.

[Ji]

These days north trend rooting could breaketh the heart...

People think this is 2014. No north trend has helped us in 11 years

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

We are snake bit with this lousy pattern that has established itself this winter.

I'm encouraged.  Lots of stuff flying around.  At least there's cards on the table.

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

We are snake bit with this lousy pattern that has established itself this winter.

You really need Prozac, it’s like you have become Chuck. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's pretty compact, but getting bigger.

@ravensrule are you seeing the same?

[Ji]

Might go back to snow, but it's an unbelievable scenario. 

Worst model run since 18z

[Ji]

You really need Prozac, it’s like you have become Chuck. 

Chuck has been more positive this year

[ravensrule]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

@ravensrule are you seeing the same?

I was always seeing big the entire time. Apparently @mitchnickwas looking at a different model than me. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

You really need Prozac, it’s like you have become Chuck. 

Are you saying it's a great pattern? I mean we've gone probably a week with ensembles spitting out <1" of snow during peak climo. I'm speaking truth...it's been a lousy pattern. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Are you saying it's a great pattern? I mean we've gone probably a week with ensembles spitting out <1" of snow during peak climo. I'm speaking truth...it's been a lousy pattern. 

It’s going to change. You make it seem like 8-10 days away is set in stone. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

It’s going to change. You make it seem like 8-10 days away is set in stone. 

That's just my convincing, lawyerly way. Lol

Seriously, in my literally 54 years as a weenie, winters need to prove themselves. This winter has proved itself to have a lousy, overall pattern. Sure, it can change, but until we get that hit, the proof remains the same.

[Solution Man]

33 people in here, had a lot of jumpers today

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

33 people in here, had a lot of jumpers today

Nah, the sane ones heeded the advice to take a week off during the thaw. The other 33 of us just enjoy self-inflicted torture.

[Ji]

Nah, the sane ones heeded the advice to take a week off during the thaw. The other 33 of us just enjoy self-inflicted torture.

The thaw is now. It’s not a shut the blinds window. We got stuff a week away. This is the best time to post

[Ji]

What the hell is this?

[ravensrule]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's just my convincing, lawyerly way. Lol

Seriously, in my literally 54 years as a weenie, winters need to prove themselves. This winter has proved itself to have a lousy, overall pattern. Sure, it can change, but until we get that hit, the proof remains the same.

I’m really hoping we get that hit in the next 8-10 days or I’m going to lose it reading all these posts. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

GEFS unconvincingly has a dartboard cluster of lows across the SE wrt the Jan 15 thing, fwiw. I suppose it's 'something'.