January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, Ruin said:

How does this model have rain north west of the snow lol

Heavier rates dragging cold air from aloft do temps are marginal in those cases but most likely a product of the model not seeing dynamics or smoothing things out. 

[mitchnick]

Icon? Looks it would be suppressed, but idk.

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Icon? Looks it would be suppressed, but idk.

Temperatures are better.... if precip gets up here then it'll be snow.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Temperatures are better.... if precip gets up here then it'll be snow.

That tpv in Quebec needs to lift out if it has any chance, and that's assuming our slp wouldn't just slide out to sea.

[bncho]

5 hours ago, bncho said:

January 15th has been trending better slowly. The h5 wave is deeper and slower, exactly what we want.

Someone mentioned to me that vortex east of James Bay could act as a 50/50 low if it continues to trend ESE. Any thoughts?

[stormtracker]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Icon? Looks it would be suppressed, but idk.

Nice look.  I'm a little more optimistic on the look.  I think it'd try to climb

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

Someone mentioned to me that vortex east of James Bay could act as a 50/50 low if it continues to trend ESE. Any thoughts?

It's doing that already on the Icon, but may be too strong and/or unable/unwilling to move. Even if it cooperates, however, we still need the vort controlling our storm to cooperate as well. Iow, the Canadian vortex is only 1/2 of our problem. 

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, bncho said:

Someone mentioned to me that vortex east of James Bay could act as a 50/50 low if it continues to trend ESE. Any thoughts?

Alright I gotta a bone to pick with the whole concept of a 50/50 low...why does that feel like it happens about as much as a storm making it's own cold air? Lol Like I hear y'all say "If we could get a 50/50..." but I don't think that's happened since I've been following (unless 2016 was one)

[stormtracker]

So far at 162 GFS h5 is yet again different from previous run.  Let's see where this goes

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright I gotta a bone to pick with the whole concept of a 50/50 low...why does that feel like it happens about as much as a storm making it's own cold air? Lol Like I hear y'all say "If we could get a 50/50..." but I don't think that's happened since I've been following (unless 2016 was one)

1st Jan storm last year that gave DC like 7" had a 50/50 low

[Stormchaserchuck1]

31 minutes ago, bncho said:

Temperatures are better.... if precip gets up here then it'll be snow.

That's probably rain for I-95. NW of I-95 it might be snow. 

[stormtracker]

Hmm

[bncho]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Hmm

I agree—interesting. Very interesting.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Hmm

Yeah, if the Gfs can dip and then hook that storm NE, it may get big near the coast.

[stormtracker]

GFS trying to bring it...snow creeps over us at 186

[stormtracker]

Nice snow over us at 189.  Nothing huge it appears, but...it's digital blue.

So yeah, this one goes on the watchlist

[mitchnick]

It's pretty compact, but getting bigger.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

It's pretty compact, but getting bigger.

It's a modest hit for us, but I mean..2-4/3-5 type deal per shitty SV maps.   Northarlington will be along with the prettier maps.  Knowing SVs map, it's probably really a 1 to 3 inch deal

[mitchnick]

Meh, a little too far south for my liking.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It's a modest hit for us, but I mean..2-4/3-5 type deal per shitty SV maps

[stormtracker]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Meh, a little too far south for my liking.

I keep forgetting you dumped us

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Yup.  SV maps are fucking horrible.

[bncho]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

i'll take it and run

(ya ninja'd me )

 

[mitchnick]

Meh up here.

[Scraff]

Pass. We can do better. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I keep forgetting you dumped us

I had no choice.

[mitchnick]

GGEM has more potential. Let's see what happens. 

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

GGEM has more potential. Let's see what happens. 

It gets us decently

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

GGEM has more potential. Let's see what happens. 

It’s a little too late but looks like a hair from something pretty epic 

to be clear it snows but we need it to bomb earlier 

[Solution Man]

So I should come back on 15 Jan