2026 forecast contest thread -- enter your March 2026 forecasts

[Scotty Lightning]

6 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

OK, I scored Feb without a 'curve', if anyone wishes to attempt Roger's curve they can have a go at it.

donsutherland1         84    78    100   262     8    8    14    30    292    12    12    36    60    352

wxdude64                 92    74     90    256    0   20    0    20     276     0     0    66    66    342

dmillz25                     84    72    84    240     0   38    0    38    278     0    14    48    62    340

RJay                           76    88    66    230     0     0   38   38    268    0     4     64    68    336

wxallannj                    84   68    86     238     4   14     0    18    256     0     0     78    78    334

Consensus                 84   72    90     246     0    18    0    18    264     0     0     68    68    332

hudsonvalley21          76    70   90     236     0    28    0   28    264     0     0     62    62    326

bkviking                      64   62   84     210     0     18    0    18    228     0     0     92    92    320

so_whats_happening 68   58   84     210     0     30    0    30   240    0     0     76     76    316

PositiveEPOEnjoyer     6     2    28      36     62   78    36  176   212    0    0     92     92    304

Tom                             92   98   74    264     0      0      0       0    264   0    0     34     34    298

Roger Smith                66   68   36    170      0     0     0      0      170   0    0     68     68    238

Scotty Lightning         24   12    34     70     14    38    0     52    122    0    0    98     98    220

Normal                        24   12     0      36     14    38    0     52     88     0    0    92     92     180

RodneyS                       6    8     0       14      0      0      0     0      14      0    0    84     84      98

Not promising this is 100% correct, although I went thru it twice. If you think your score is off, just let me (us) know.

        

 

 

 

Wow....I really sucked in February; I'm sure Roger is laughing at me from Heaven right now. 

[dmillz25]

What should be the due date for this? The 2nd of every month?

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

What should be the due date for this? The 2nd of every month?

For getting back into it with April we can extend it to the 3rd of April 6z but going forward lets try to stick to the 1st of the month at 6z. There will be times where it won't be perfect.

I think we will try to add penalties as we go along for late forecasts. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

March is going to be the first widespread AN temperature month for Eastern US cities since September. October and November were NN, and of course, December, January, and February were solidly BN.

[wxdude64]

20 hours ago, Scotty Lightning said:

Wow....I really sucked in February; I'm sure Roger is laughing at me from Heaven right now. 

We ALL did poorly! I'm going to go out on a limb and say this may be the worst month ever for overall scores since this game started!

[Tom]

DCA: +1.6

NYC: +1.1

BOS: +1.2

ORD: +0.8

ATL: +1.8

IAH: +2.1

DEN: +1.7

PHX: -0.4

SEA: -0.5

[GaWx]

This is my first time doing this:
 

DCA: +3.3

NYC: +2.6

BOS: +2.2

ORD: +2.9

ATL: +3.3

IAH: +1.6

DEN: +5.0

PHX: +4.2

SEA: +1.1

[wxdude64]

For April-

DCA:  +1.8

NYC:  +0.7

BOS:  -0.2

ORD:  +0.8

ATL:  +2.7

IAH:  +1.9

DEN:  +2.1

PHX:  +1.7

SEA:  +0.4

[wxallannj]

For April-

DCA:  +1.5

NYC:  +1.3

BOS:  +1.0

ORD:  +2.0

ATL:  +1.5

IAH:  +1.7

DEN:  +3.4

PHX:  +2.9

SEA:  +1.2

[hudsonvalley21]

For April-

DCA:  +2.3

NYC:  +1.9

BOS:  +1.2

ORD:  +0.8

ATL:  +2.2

IAH:  +1.4

DEN:  +2.4

PHX:  +2.3

SEA   + 0.6

 

 

 

SEA:  +0.4

[so_whats_happening]

Here is the March update. Denver and Phoenix experienced unprecedented warmth for the month of March and all of us were over +5 away from actual anomalies so it resulted in a score of 0. Until I can figure out how to do Roger's 60 rule for extremely anomalous temperatures we will have to keep these at 0.

If you find any of these numbers to be off/wrong or I missed anyone please feel free to reach out. I will add the accumulated score through the end of March in a bit. I left out Consensus and normal for now as the way i calculated it (consensus) is slightly off to how Roger had it back in January/February.

[so_whats_happening]

From January scores done by Roger, February done by wxdude64, and March done by myself (just above) here are the standings as of the end of March. I hope this is all correct and this should become much smoother as we move forward. Bolded are the tops scores in each category.

The asterisk is for months that were missed. We have quite the grouping going on and love to see newcomers each month. I will send out a message to folks about April who see missing thus far.

 

[so_whats_happening]

Before I forget mine:

DCA: +2.4

NYC: +1.9

BOS: +0.8

ORD: +0.8

ATL: +1.5

IAH: +1.7

DEN: +1.3

PHX: +0.9

SEA: +0.4

[RodneyS]

April

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.3       2.5     0.9     -0.6     1.9     1.7      3.2      2.1      0.1

[bkviking]

late.. 
 

DCA: +2.5

NYC: +2.2

BOS: +2.2

ORD: +2.6

ATL: +3.0

IAH: +0.7

DEN: +3.5

PHX: +2.8

SEA: +1.8

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, bkviking said:

late.. 
 

DCA: +2.5

NYC: +2.2

BOS: +2.2

ORD: +2.6

ATL: +3.0

IAH: +0.7

DEN: +3.5

PHX: +2.8

SEA: +1.8

I did it for April 3rd @6z to get back into the swing of things but come May and onward we will go back to by the 1st at 6z.

[so_whats_happening]

@dmillz25 @donsutherland1 @MJO812 @yoda let me know if you would like to still continue doing the monthly temp forecasts.

[MJO812]

49 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

@dmillz25 @donsutherland1 @MJO812 @yoda let me know if you would like to still continue doing the monthly temp forecasts.

Defintely

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Defintely

Forecast by 6z 4/3 essentially 3 hours from now. Going forward we will be doing this on 1st of each month by 6z.

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

@dmillz25 @donsutherland1 @MJO812 @yoda let me know if you would like to still continue doing the monthly temp forecasts.

Yes.