January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[RU848789]

I know ensembles are the way to go beyond Day 7, when most of the snow on this AIFS map falls, but c'mon, you have to at least chuckle at this map if you live in the big cities.

[Wannabehippie]

12 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is frigid in the long range 

Will all that cold air, with the accompanying big high pressure system suppress everything south, with just a few light snow events via clippers coming thru, or will we squeeze in a system to ride up the coast? Stay tuned.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Will all that cold air, with the accompanying big high pressure system suppress everything south, with just a few light snow events via clippers coming thru, or will we squeeze in a system to ride up the coast? Stay tuned.

in recent history is a guide-frigid and dry

[eduggs]

21 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

The only thing that seems to be guaranteed throuhh the end of the month is cold air. GFS has a larger storm just offshore for the 18th. Euro has nothing. All models are signaling a larger storm around the 23rd. Looks like colder air sets in on Wednesday; ending our thaw, and then arctic air comes in next weekend and stays (probably some slight moderation at time) throuhh the end of the month. Very active long range signal. Not just for here but finally for central and south US as well. Will winter finally begin for those places?

Is cold air ever guaranteed at 41° N and 74° W?

I count 3 separate rain events in the LR on both the GFS and ECMWF. In January that can't be that cold. No we don't forecast based on LR OP model runs. But it's risky to guarentee something in the face of directly contradictory evidence.

[donsutherland1]

Through tomorrow, highs will generally reach the 40s during the daytime and 30s for lows in New York City. 

Some light precipitation is possible tomorrow evening into Thursday. Rain showers could transition to a period of snow or snow showers, especially well north and west of New York City where a light accumulation is possible. 

Afterward, temperatures will "step down" with highs mainly in the middle and upper 30s in New York City and lows in the lower and middle 20s.  Some teens are likely outside of New York City. Flurries and perhaps a heavier snow shower are possible on Saturday and Sunday as a renewed flow of cold air moves across the region. Temperatures will remain below normal through at least early next week. 

After January 20th, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA remains predominantly positive, as has often occurred following the breakdown of long-duration PNA- regimes. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be another day or two before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts related to closing days of January. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +8.91 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.667 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.3° (-0.4° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

I know ensembles are the way to go beyond Day 7, when most of the snow on this AIFS map falls, but c'mon, you have to at least chuckle at this map if you live in the big cities.

March 1-2, 1980 might have an intellectual property claim against the AIFS.

[Krs4Lfe]

42 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Is cold air ever guaranteed at 41° N and 74° W?

I count 3 separate rain events in the LR on both the GFS and ECMWF. In January that can't be that cold. No we don't forecast based on LR OP model runs. But it's risky to guarentee something in the face of directly contradictory evidence.

Correct. Cold”er” seems like a lock; but clearly not that cold because it can’t even support snow 

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

in recent history is a guide-frigid and dry

Very reminiscent of January and February 2019. Warm and wet and cold and dry. 

[Krs4Lfe]

In fact, latest Icon model has rain and 40 degrees for Sunday the 18th. Steady snow inland. Time is running out 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

In fact, latest Icon model has rain and 40 degrees for Sunday the 18th. Steady snow inland. Time is running out 

It just trended west on the icon. Whats running out of time ?

 

 

[Krs4Lfe]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It just trended west on the icon. Whats running out of time ?

 

 

Icon trended west but the boundary layer is torched, so it’s rain. Running out of time to turn this into a snow event down to the coast.

[MJO812]

Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

Icon trended west but the boundary layer is torched, so it’s rain. Running out of time to turn this into a snow event down to the coast.

Icons thermals are always questionable 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icons thermals are always questionable 

It IS a sloppy phase but also there's no real high in place in SE Canada so probably even in a clean setup that one verbatim is close.

[Krs4Lfe]

AI GFS is closer with Sunday and looks much colder. But after what the GFS did with our snow/rain showers on Thursday and hyped it into a big snowstorm, it’s hard to believe 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

I know ensembles are the way to go beyond Day 7, when most of the snow on this AIFS map falls, but c'mon, you have to at least chuckle at this map if you live in the big cities.

I remember a similar map someone posted in Early December. December ended up just fine, through most of the forum. 

[Krs4Lfe]

GFS OP has the storm just offshore for Sunday. It made the trough sharper so it’s closer 

[RU848789]

15 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I remember a similar map someone posted in Early December. December ended up just fine, through most of the forum. 

It might have been me, lol.  All kidding aside, I'd way rather be surrounded by a lot of snow in the long range than see no snow on the long range, as we all know ensemble means 10+ days out will change substantially.  

[MJO812]

Weenie alert on the long range gfs

[MJO812]

[WeatherGeek2025]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weenie alert on the long range gfs

temps in the teens 

[Prue11]

14 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is frigid in the long range 

What do you consider frigid? I’m seeing lows down into the upper teens a few nights 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

temps in the teens 

We track but remain cautious. At least the CPC likes this timeframe.

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We track but remain cautious. At least the CPC likes this timeframe.

what do you see from the GFS ensembles for Sunday?

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

what do you see from the GFS ensembles for Sunday?

Meh