John1122 Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 The Weather Next precip shield has expanded west 3 runs in a row. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 If AI asked the Euro Weeklies(today) how long until spring arrives. It's answer would have been, "Long time." 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 So you're telling me there's a chance lol 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 16 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: So you're telling me there's a chance lol 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 The good news with this type of setup is there should be a fairly quick resolution to whether this will work around parts of Tennessee or not. I believe if it's not going to work it will move toward a mostly coastal or central Carolina snow over the next 24-36 hours of runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: The good news with this type of setup is there should be a fairly quick resolution to whether this will work around parts of Tennessee or not. I believe if it's not going to work it will move toward a mostly coastal or central Carolina snow over the next 24-36 hours of runs. Yep. Models at 12z did tick back east a good bit. EPS did pretty significantly. the "good" news is the weathernext model is pretty far east but has some ULL enhancement on our side the apps still. And with rations up toward 20:1 it won't take much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Ensembles ticked east…deterministic models did not at 12z. 12z models were generally west or the same with slp placement including Google(?). The precip shield was less - reference previous page. Do I think it will trend eastward?….ensembles say yes and I tend to agree. Deterministic runs at 12z and individual ensemble members were generally west of mslp. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
housemtnTN Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 I'm gonna take a shot in the dark and say it will do some wacky stuff like it always does here lol. I'm just glad winter isn't over yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 5 minutes ago, housemtnTN said: I'm gonna take a shot in the dark and say it will do some wacky stuff like it always does here lol. I'm just glad winter isn't over yet. I’m just ready for spring 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 GFS is further east 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 hours ago, GBOVolz said: NOAA also had us pegged for heavy snow seven or eight days out before the last storm also . Perhaps but they always said there is the potential for heavy snow and they certainly got the heavy part right, it was just rain in the Tri-Cities. Currently they see little to no potential for the next one. As always, I guess we will find out in 5 more days. “Sitting here reeling em in” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 45 minutes ago, Wurbus said: GFS is further east That....was an east trending run for sure. I am kind of with @tnweathernut on this one...just looks like a storm which will hit eastern NC right to the coast. I do think we see some light snow or snow showers w/ the energy that dives into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just looking at the short range models...there looks like some light snow showers moving through Wednesday night into Thursday. With these temps...very little precip can go a long way. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 Euro AI was pretty steady and right about the same as 12z. Euro OP was worse for anywhere in Tennessee than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 “We need this to trend NW”Doesn’t move “We need this to quit trending NW”You’re welcome Ohio. . 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Re: Weekend…A small uptick in snow for SE KY, SW VA, and NETN with the 18z Euro op. Precip shield made it over the mountain slightly that run and northern stream energy was decent(prob bigger driver in increased snow). SLP was further off the coast though - east. Still a tough sell. More snow with that run, but having to depend on a low that far off the coast is usually not good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brewman22001 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 “We need this to trend NW”Doesn’t move “We need this to quit trending NW”You’re welcome Ohio. .I know!! Can we please get one good storm to just behave and trend towards us and not away. This is emotional abuse and neglect by Mother Nature . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 18z Weather Next 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 Man, that's an unfortunate eastward shift from weather next. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Yeah this one may be an NC special! Cold and dry here this weekend most likely. Pattern looks cold. We will probably have more action at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Finally a storm to track with no hype on social media yet.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 NAM following the CMC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, Scottie16 said: NAM following the CMC. . Following what? NAM doesn’t go out that far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Following what? NAM doesn’t go out that farFollowing the same trends. It’s not about how far it goes out. It’s looking for similarities between guidance models. Through 72 hours the NAM looks eerily similar to the GDPS. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 One thing to note is the DGZ is going to be very close to the surface. The difference in solutions run to run is dependent upon where the 850 vort passes when dropping south out of Canada. If the winds veer at 850 from the NW instead of N, NNE then the lift mechanism needed would be the mountains/plateau. Moisture is in place, just need something to lift the parcels. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Finally a storm to track with no hype on social media yet..Guess you haven’t heard of “Snowbird Bob”?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 GFS took a big step west. Those in the far eastern areas would cash in with that run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, John1122 said: GFS took a big step west. Those in the far eastern areas would cash in with that run. Another 2 shifts like that and ETN is in business 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, John1122 said: GFS took a big step west. Those in the far eastern areas would cash in with that run. Was just about to post that. Nice step in the right direction. Hopefully a start to a few more steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now