John1122 Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 The GFS isn't just often wrong these days, whatever has happened to it, it doesn't even correct until the event is actually happening. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I think what we're hoping for is a lee-side low developing in response to the upper-level energy moving through. If the surface low tucks closer to the coast, it could indicate slower progression of the overall system due to the upper dynamics, which would give more time for precipitation to wrap around and develop over the eastern parts of TNYou can sometimes get troughs where there’s a wind change on the backside with this much CAA spilling in. Any kind of convergent area to create more lift will be appreciated. lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 The GEFS AI is definitely showing a westward trend with the moisture 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Euro-ai. Significantly west 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 So all we need to do is hate on the GFS a bit and now the euro is heading to the gfs lol. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 One thing that looks nearly guaranteed is the coldest air of the Season this Weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: So all we need to do is hate on the GFS a bit and now the euro is heading to the gfs lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, Reb said: So the question is do I hate on the gfs again before 00z for double or nothing? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Euro AI…and this is just 10:1..substantial westward expansion 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 OP caving as well 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 That's fairly significant shift on AIFs...little extra moisture gonna go a long way. Looks like a solid 3-6+ event on it imo 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Have we not been down this trail of disappointment and misery? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 So the question is do I hate on the gfs again before 00z for double or nothing? . 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I’m ready to be hurt again, but that’s probably 30 years of sales experience and dealing with rejection helping me out……lol. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: I’m ready to be hurt again, but that’s probably 30 years of sales experience and dealing with rejection helping me out……lol. I feel this the let down is real!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 That was a significant shift for the Euro. We are still a couple of days out. Still time for it to move some more! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 28 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: One thing that looks nearly guaranteed is the coldest air of the Season this Weekend. And that “should” bring precip with it if other cold winters are used as analogs. I don’t trust the coastal enhancement, but I do like light snow from the northern stream with high ratios. If this turns into a NE blizzard, NE TN and SW VA often finds themselves in that axis even if just light amounts near the genesis of the storm. If DC can end up in the storm, that is usually a good sign for us. Kind of a weirdly displaced Miller B. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 My rule of thumb…get the slp west of Cape Hatteras if we want help from the coast in E TN. Otherwise, we need lift from the west slopes of the mountains. I still wouldn’t discount a LSL…anyone see it? Lee side low 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I still wouldn’t discount a LSL…anyone see it? Lee side low That's one of the reasons that I've been more interested in the track of the ULL versus the surface. I think there's a good chance we'll get a little help at the surface along the mountains. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 40 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: I’m ready to be hurt again, but that’s probably 30 years of sales experience and dealing with rejection helping me out……lol. You must work for Walmart management lol 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 If all the big globals can hold thru 6z I may start to fully believe (old post-truncation disorder still alive and well) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Stolen from the other board but guys here is that 2nd slug we were waiting on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 59 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: And that “should” bring precip with it if other cold winters are used as analogs. I don’t trust the coastal enhancement, but I do like light snow from the northern stream with high ratios. If this turns into a NE blizzard, NE TN and SW VA often finds themselves in that axis even if just light amounts near the genesis of the storm. If DC can end up in the storm, that is usually a good sign for us. Kind of a weirdly displaced Miller B. Yeah. May turn out to something similar to the great Norfolk Snow of 1980 or 81. Don't remember which one. We wound up with 3 inches . Hopefully this one's further West. It was a Cold Storm. I saw early 80's Analogues Yesterday. One was also March 2 1980. 7 inches from that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Anyone have access to the latest Weather Next run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: Anyone have access to the latest Weather Next run? After what Bounycorn said on southernwx I think we’re all just sitting back and waiting for it lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: After what Bounycorn said on southernwx I think we’re all just sitting back and waiting for it lol. What did he say? Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 At this point we will have a NAMMing before the westhernext is out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 The 18z EPS had ticked up as has the 18z GEFS FWIW. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: What did he say? Lol! It was pretty vague but also pretty enticing. it looked “wild.” And was a “monster.” no idea what that means specifically, and especially for east TN, but it does at least sound like in shifted in someway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Question is there not a -NAO at this time? Would that not block the disturbance from going OTS or up the seaboard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now