January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[John1122]

The GFS isn't just often wrong these days, whatever has happened to it, it doesn't even correct until the event is actually happening. 

[GBOVolz]

I think what we're hoping for is a lee-side low developing in response to the upper-level energy moving through. If the surface low tucks closer to the coast, it could indicate slower progression of the overall system due to the upper dynamics, which would give more time for precipitation to wrap around and develop over the eastern parts of TN

You can sometimes get troughs where there’s a wind change on the backside with this much CAA spilling in. Any kind of convergent area to create more lift will be appreciated. lol


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[Vol4Life]

The GEFS AI is definitely showing a westward trend with the moisture

[fountainguy97]

Euro-ai. Significantly west

[fountainguy97]

So all we need to do is hate on the GFS a bit and now the euro is heading to the gfs lol.

[Daniel Boone]

One thing that looks nearly guaranteed is the coldest air of the Season this Weekend.

[Reb]

2 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

So all we need to do is hate on the GFS a bit and now the euro is heading to the gfs lol.

 

[fountainguy97]

Just now, Reb said:

 

So the question is do I hate on the gfs again before 00z for double or nothing? 

[Vol4Life]

Euro AI…and this is just 10:1..substantial westward expansion

[Reb]

OP caving as well

[TellicoWx]

That's fairly significant shift on AIFs...little extra moisture gonna go a long way. Looks like a solid 3-6+ event on it imo

[Kasper]

Have we not been down this trail of disappointment and misery?

[Greyhound]

So the question is do I hate on the gfs again before 00z for double or nothing? 

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[tnweathernut]

I’m ready to be hurt again, but that’s probably  30 years of sales experience and dealing with rejection helping me out……lol.

[Kasper]

3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I’m ready to be hurt again, but that’s probably  30 years of sales experience and dealing with rejection helping me out……lol.

I feel this the let down is real!!

[Vol4Life]

That was a significant shift for the Euro.  We are still a couple of days out. Still time for it to move some more!

[Carvers Gap]

28 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

One thing that looks nearly guaranteed is the coldest air of the Season this Weekend.

And that “should” bring precip with it if other cold winters are used as analogs.  I don’t trust the coastal enhancement, but I do like light snow from the northern stream with high ratios.  If this turns into a NE blizzard, NE TN and SW VA often finds themselves in that axis even if just light amounts near the genesis of the storm.  If DC can end up in the storm, that is usually a good sign for us.  Kind of a weirdly displaced Miller B.

[Carvers Gap]

My rule of thumb…get the slp west of Cape Hatteras if we want help from the coast in E TN.  Otherwise, we need lift from the west slopes of the mountains.  I still wouldn’t discount a LSL…anyone see it?  Lee side low 

[Math/Met]

14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I still wouldn’t discount a LSL…anyone see it?  Lee side low 

That's one of the reasons that I've been more interested in the track of the ULL versus the surface. I think there's a good chance we'll get a little help at the surface along the mountains.

[TellicoWx]

40 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I’m ready to be hurt again, but that’s probably  30 years of sales experience and dealing with rejection helping me out……lol.

You must work for Walmart management lol

[TellicoWx]

If all the big globals can hold thru 6z I may start to fully believe (old post-truncation disorder still alive and well)

[Reb]

Stolen from the other board but guys here is that 2nd slug we were waiting on 

[Daniel Boone]

59 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And that “should” bring precip with it if other cold winters are used as analogs.  I don’t trust the coastal enhancement, but I do like light snow from the northern stream with high ratios.  If this turns into a NE blizzard, NE TN and SW VA often finds themselves in that axis even if just light amounts near the genesis of the storm.  If DC can end up in the storm, that is usually a good sign for us.  Kind of a weirdly displaced Miller B.

Yeah. May turn out to something similar to the great Norfolk Snow of 1980 or 81. Don't remember which one. We wound up with 3 inches . Hopefully this one's further West. It was a Cold Storm. I saw early 80's Analogues Yesterday. One was also March 2 1980. 7 inches from that one. 

[Vol4Life]

Anyone have access to the latest Weather Next run?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

Anyone have access to the latest Weather Next run?

After what Bounycorn said on southernwx I think we’re all just sitting back and waiting for it lol. 

[Vol4Life]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

After what Bounycorn said on southernwx I think we’re all just sitting back and waiting for it lol. 

What did he say? Lol!

[Reb]

At this point we will have a NAMMing before the westhernext is out

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z EPS had ticked up as has the 18z GEFS FWIW.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

4 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

What did he say? Lol!

It was pretty vague but also pretty enticing. 
 

it looked “wild.” And was a “monster.” 
 

no idea what that means specifically, and especially for east TN, but it does at least sound like in shifted in someway 

[Matthew70]

Question is there not a -NAO at this time?  Would that not block the disturbance from going OTS or up the seaboard?