January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[John1122]

The Weather Next precip shield has expanded west 3 runs in a row.

[Carvers Gap]

If AI asked the Euro Weeklies(today) how long until spring arrives.  It's answer would have been, "Long time."

[TellicoWx]

So you're telling me there's a chance lol

[Kasper]

16 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

So you're telling me there's a chance lol

[tnweathernut]

The good news with this type of setup is there should be a fairly quick resolution to whether this will work around parts of Tennessee or not.  I believe if it's not going to work it will move toward a mostly coastal or central Carolina snow over the next 24-36 hours of runs.

 

[fountainguy97]

3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

The good news with this type of setup is there should be a fairly quick resolution to whether this will work around parts of Tennessee or not.  I believe if it's not going to work it will move toward a mostly coastal or central Carolina snow over the next 24-36 hours of runs.

 

Yep. Models at 12z did tick back east a good bit. EPS did pretty significantly.

the "good" news is the weathernext model is pretty far east but has some ULL enhancement on our side the apps still. And with rations up toward 20:1 it won't take much.

[Carvers Gap]

Ensembles ticked east…deterministic models did not at 12z.  12z models were generally west or the same with slp placement including Google(?).   The precip shield was less - reference previous page.  Do I think it will trend eastward?….ensembles say yes and I tend to agree.  Deterministic runs at 12z and individual ensemble members were generally west of mslp. 

 

[housemtnTN]

I'm gonna take a shot in the dark and say it will do some wacky stuff like it always does here lol. I'm just glad winter isn't over yet.

[Reb]

5 minutes ago, housemtnTN said:

I'm gonna take a shot in the dark and say it will do some wacky stuff like it always does here lol. I'm just glad winter isn't over yet.

I’m just ready for spring 

[Wurbus]

GFS is further east

[Icy Hot]

2 hours ago, GBOVolz said:

NOAA also had us pegged for heavy snow seven or eight days out before the last storm also


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Perhaps but they always said there is the potential for heavy snow and they certainly got the heavy part right, it was just rain in the Tri-Cities. Currently they see little to no potential for the next one. As always, I guess we will find out in 5 more days. “Sitting here reeling em in”

[Carvers Gap]

45 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

GFS is further east

That....was an east trending run for sure.  I am kind of with @tnweathernut on this one...just looks like a storm which will hit eastern NC right to the coast.  I do think we see some light snow or snow showers w/ the energy that dives into it.

[Carvers Gap]

Just looking at the short range models...there looks like some light snow showers moving through Wednesday night into Thursday.  With these temps...very little precip can go a long way.  

[John1122]

Euro AI was pretty steady and right about the same as 12z. Euro OP was worse for anywhere in Tennessee than 12z.

[GBOVolz]

“We need this to trend NW”
Doesn’t move

“We need this to quit trending NW”
You’re welcome Ohio.


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[Carvers Gap]

Re: Weekend…A small uptick in snow for SE KY, SW VA, and NETN with the 18z Euro op.  Precip shield made it over the mountain slightly that run and northern stream energy was decent(prob bigger driver in increased snow).  SLP was further off the coast though - east.  Still a tough sell.  More snow with that run, but having to depend on a low that far off the coast is usually not good.

[brewman22001]

“We need this to trend NW”
Doesn’t move

“We need this to quit trending NW”
You’re welcome Ohio.


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I know!! Can we please get one good storm to just behave and trend towards us and not away. This is emotional abuse and neglect by Mother Nature


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[Math/Met]

18z Weather Next

[John1122]

Man, that's an unfortunate eastward shift from weather next. 

 

[fountainguy97]

Yeah this one may be an NC special! Cold and dry here this weekend most likely. Pattern looks cold. We will probably have more action at some point.

[Scottie16]

Finally a storm to track with no hype on social media yet.


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[Scottie16]

NAM following the CMC.


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[Vol4Life]

5 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

NAM following the CMC.


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Following what?  NAM doesn’t go out that far

[Scottie16]

Following what?  NAM doesn’t go out that far

Following the same trends. It’s not about how far it goes out. It’s looking for similarities between guidance models. Through 72 hours the NAM looks eerily similar to the GDPS.


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[Vol4Life]

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[TellicoWx]

One thing to note is the DGZ is going to be very close to the surface. The difference in solutions run to run is dependent upon where the 850 vort passes when dropping south out of Canada. If the winds veer at 850 from the NW instead of N, NNE then the lift mechanism needed would be the mountains/plateau. Moisture is in place, just need something to lift the parcels.

[Greyhound]

Finally a storm to track with no hype on social media yet.


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Guess you haven’t heard of “Snowbird Bob”?


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[John1122]

GFS took a big step west. Those in the far eastern areas would cash in with that run. 

[Vol4Life]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

GFS took a big step west. Those in the far eastern areas would cash in with that run. 

Another 2 shifts like that and ETN is in business 

[Math/Met]

Just now, John1122 said:

GFS took a big step west. Those in the far eastern areas would cash in with that run. 

Was just about to post that. Nice step in the right direction. Hopefully a start to a few more steps.