January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Chattownsnow]

Hoping a northern stream vort makes it far enough south and then blows up in the perfect spot to grab Atlantic moisture and throw it all the way back into the southern apps seems like much less than a 10% chance……. lol

If that southern vort perks up would that help? With the northern piece trending north maybe that can be our saving grace if we are lucky lol. It speeding up couldn’t hurt either I would think


.

[Bigbald]

Euro AI at 6z was almost perfect

[Holston_River_Rambler]

csnavy, a met in the MA forum, had a good/ funny approach for managing expectations regarding models each day this week:

 

In other words, if we are in the bullseye on Friday, we should feel free to do whatever Vince is doing above. 

[Chattownsnow]

Euro AI at 6z was almost perfect

Man, that would be falling into some absurdly cold air from top to bottom.


.

[housemtnTN]

I've been getting some heavy flurries this morning and honestly it's probably the best snow ive seen out of this system lol.

[GBOVolz]

Yep, I agree with you and Chattownsnow. Can something this wound up actually get this far south? 

Has anyone looked for analogs?


.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

SOI had a big drop recently after be positive for most of the past month

 

Some say that portends a southern stream storm in 2-3 weeks, others are skeptical. 

 

Good convection near the dateline too:

Strat still looks to get split in early to mid Feb. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Has anyone looked for analogs?

I can never remember how to get to the CPC site for that. I'll try to figure it out again because I keep meaning to. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Well nevermind, that wasn't as hard to find as I thought:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here are the CIPS H5 analogs:

 

I think it looks at the GFS's forecast and populates analogs from that. All CIPS has is the GFS as a base layer for comparison unfortunately.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

GFS from 1/23 is probably the high end of what could happen at this point with some ticks west:

Please note before you look below, this is from 0z GFS 1/23, not a more recent run

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GBOVolz]

GFS from 1/23 is probably the high end of what could happen at this point with some ticks west:
Please note before you look below, this is from 0z GFS 1/23, not a more recent run
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 

So it is possible for it to dive further west and south.


.

[Math/Met]

Just now getting a chance to look. It looks like the 6z WeatherNext was a little better for our area. 

[Carvers Gap]

I may have to break down and look at Google AI.  

FTR, it is freaking cold outside.  Roads here this morning were a solid sheet of ice w/ about a 1/2" of new snow overnight.  You could barely stand up on some streets - yes, I went running in this mess(if you can call it running when on ice).  

Snow flurries are rolling through currently.  We put covers on outdoors spigots yesterday evening.  I think this type of light snow shower activity may continue on and off throughout the cold snap....14-15' type of stuff but lighter.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

21 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

So it is possible for it to dive further west and south.

I think its possible, but how likely it is, that's another question. 

[Reb]

ICON nails the eastern valley 

[Kasper]

12 minutes ago, Reb said:

ICON nails the eastern valley 

Need that to tick west a 100 miles and we’re in business 

[tnweathernut]

The setup reminds me of a couple of classic central and eastern Carolina snowstorms in the past.  Maybe east TN can back into a decent snow?  I'd say this one has high whiff potential, but the high end of what could happen is a high ratio super cold snow (which we rarely have any chance of seeing outside of northwest flow)

[TellicoWx]

850/925 vort circled of the 6z Euro Ai...this is the big puzzle pieces to me

[John1122]

If this one doesn't trend NW, but not too far, it will truly be another epic failure. I saw a discussion about the NW trend being because models mistake something from range, I think it was something to do with sea temperatures maybe, that causes them to almost universally place systems too far SE. Which is why we see the NW trend constantlly.

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

If this one doesn't trend NW, but not too far, it will truly be another epic failure. I saw a discussion about the NW trend being because models mistake something from range, I think it was something to do with sea temperatures maybe, that causes them to almost universally place systems too far SE. Which is why we see the NW trend constantlly.

I've tried to figure that problem out for years...personally, I think it has to doe with the grids and physics engines for the upper air pattern. The closer you get alot of times the 500 pattern slowly ticks west..like the physics engine is too fast advancing leads to the old saying "models keep kicking the can down the road" in the LR. When they got rid of truncation and went physics based, they had to figure out a way to not consume enormous amounts of energy to run the system...so as the models advance in time, they generalize and remove some of the physics equation involved which leads models being to quick in upper air pattern. Just theory been working on.

[TellicoWx]

And that's where the AI adaptation comes in to play...AI enhanced systems can add those pieces of the equation back in without consuming large amounts of computing power compared to the traditional system

[GBOVolz]

I believe a few weeks back someone ask something about storms trending Northwest…. I said….” storms only trend Northwest when we do not want them to” I hope I’m wrong


.

[fountainguy97]

the CMC is about to drop a nuke. it was the first model to show the WAA last week

[fountainguy97]

[Daniel Boone]

12 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Dayum !

[Daniel Boone]

15 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

I believe a few weeks back someone ask something about storms trending Northwest…. I said….” storms only trend Northwest when we do not want them to” I hope I’m wrong


.

That's been our Luck. 

[John1122]

That was about a 300 mile NW shift by the Canadian.

[Carvers Gap]

12z CMC is a classic EC blizzard.

[Carvers Gap]

And the CMC synoptics make a lot of sense w/ the cold air diving into energy in the STJ.  Big cold fronts can go boom at this time of year.