January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Bigbald]

Its very conspicuous how a few days back that 12z model suite initially snapped onto a broadly speaking agreeable solution after meandering through wild swings of inconsistencies.  Seems like alot of our bigger events catch on like that.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

With the notable exception of the GDPS para(I called it the GEM para...same), most deterministic runs of this event have precip falling into temps which range from the low teens to lower 20s.  The GEM para has temps in E TN only in the mid 30s, even w/ downlsope/warm nose/ etc.  

The 12z EPS manages to get cold air in place prior to the event.  The 12z GEFS has a bit of a warm nose, but as soon as precip starts...the front crashes into the STJ.  The GEPS is somewhere in between.  Ensemble temps are mid20s to mid30s.

The key will be getting a big high over the top(1040s are good) which feeds the north side of any potential STJ pulse.

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

Its very conspicuous how a few days back that 12z model suite initially snapped onto a broadly speaking agreeable solution after meandering through wild swings of inconsistencies.  Seems like alot of our bigger events catch on like that.  

 

Agree for sure.  The only thing that gives me pause is this past week looked great...and it went poof quickly.  I would say I am cautiously optimistic for a winter storm....but ice is no bueno IMBY.  

And maybe these extra flights are helping some...IDK.

[John1122]

The 1045 over Minnesota is a classic winter storm set up here and the Euro reflects that.  Our biggest winter storms very often have extreme cold outbreaks in Minnesota.

[Chattownsnow]

I think we better get a lot of sleep over the next couple of days.  24 more hours of consistent modeling and grocery store workers will be hating life soon.

Thats me


.

[housemtnTN]

I haven't kept up in a day or so and holy moly things have changed.

[jaxjagman]

The Euro would be a devastating ice storm from Ark to SC

[Weatheriscool]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

The Euro would be a devastating ice storm from Ark to SC

Minus middle tn?

[TellicoWx]

Just looking at 12z and wow....not gonna lie tho, the Euro AI has me very nervous. @Holston_River_Ramblermentioned yesterday, when it locks in it tends to tick back to the NW ever so slowly..that would put the southern border counties of TN right under the gun for ice not snow. Next 12-24hrs will tell alot for that model.

[Kasper]

8 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said:

Thats me


.

Same here!!

[Matthew70]

5 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

Minus middle tn?

No.  It would be I40 divided but mostly ice. That ice could be sleet included.  Crippling would be an understatement. 

[Daniel Boone]

39 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think the 12z GEM para is very plausible as well and fits recent Nina climatology like a glove.  This would be the northern side of modeling so far.

 

Yep. Wouldn't be surprised at all..Was just thinking of that awhile ago and lonand behold a Model shows it. The Great Valley warm Slot.  If there's a choice irt to that Depiction, I'd rather the warm slot and rain over the Ice.

      Hopefully it's wrong and we get a clean pass Snowstorm.

 

[TellicoWx]

Is there a precedent in the past for a major ice storm that hit a swath say from Little Rock/Memphis, N. MS, Huntsville, Chattanooga? Sorry should know, but my old age is starting to show lol.

[John1122]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Is there a precedent in the past for a major ice storm that hit a swath say from Little Rock/Memphis, N. MS, Huntsville, Chattanooga? Sorry should know, but my old age is starting to show lol.

Feb 1-2nd 1996.

[Weatheriscool]

3 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

No.  It would be I40 divided but mostly ice. That ice could be sleet included.  Crippling would be an understatement. 

North of Nashville here so breathing little easier 

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Feb 1-2nd 1996.

Probably why i dont remember it, was deployed to Panama then...thx.

[John1122]

Just now, TellicoWx said:

Probably why i dont remember it, was deployed to Panama then...thx.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Back in the days of the NOGAPS and CPC being our only internet wx sources....you just had to use your imagination. 

 

[John1122]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Probably why i dont remember it, was deployed to Panama then...thx.

It's arguably the most severe winter event in Tennessee Valley history imo. Almost 1985 cold, almost 1993 level snow, and apocalyptic ice/sleet in Miss/Alabama, S Tennessee.

[Carvers Gap]

Day 6-10 CPC analogs:

20240118
20030123
20110113
20210210
20070207
19960202
20030114
20140208
20100130
20170204

Day 8-14 CPC analogs:

20030125
20160211
20160117
20100215
19950205
20030112
20070213
19950128
19960211
20060209

[jaxjagman]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Day 6-10 CPC analogs:

20240118
20030123
20110113
20210210
20070207
19960202
20030114
20140208
20100130
20170204

Day 8-14 CPC analogs:

20030125
20160211
20160117
20100215
19950205
20030112
20070213
19950128
19960211
20060209

Nice,top anolog is 2024

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20240114

[John1122]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Day 6-10 CPC analogs:

20240118
20030123
20110113
20210210
20070207
19960202
20030114
20140208
20100130
20170204

Day 8-14 CPC analogs:

20030125
20160211
20160117
20100215
19950205
20030112
20070213
19950128
19960211
20060209

Not surprised that Feb 96 was one. 

[AMZ8990]

To me It’s interesting to see all these record breaking winter storms across the world the past few weeks.  Juneau Alaska had a record month for snow, we all witnessed snow train that dumped on Mammoth in cali, a once in a decade winter storm in Japan last week, places in Russia where people are tunneling out of their houses to their cars due to excessive snowfall.  

[*Flash*]

29 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said:

Thats me


.

Well, crap. I have a one-month-old. Not sure how that's going to work. Maybe a Red Bull-IV. That might do it. 

[*Flash*]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Not surprised that Feb 96 was one. 

The amount of instantly recognizable bangers on that list makes me giddy. Smash.

[beavis1729]

2/2/1996 was the infamous -60F in Tower, MN.

[TellicoWx]

Euro AI and GEM Para have alot of similarities...tries to bring the low up into the eastern valley before transferring to SE coast..Miller A/B ish.

[Carvers Gap]

15 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Euro AI and GEM Para have alot of similarities...tries to bring the low up into the eastern valley before transferring to SE coast..Miller A/B ish.

Yep.  Legit scenario.  With the 1040+ hp over the top...that gives me a bit more hope than normal for snow.  But.... Very concerned about ice w/ that scenario.  Textbook ice setup, and models wouldn't catch that until it was under way IMHO.  That high would keep funneling low level cold down the valley as rain goes over the top...and up the valley.  Basically(and I know you know this...but kicking around the idea), the cold wraps clockwise around an incoming hp over the western Mid-West.  Then, the cold hits the Apps and funnels south.  The scenarios where we get snow...cold is right over the top.  The scenarios w/ the warm nose...the cold lags.  But with both scenarios...the cold eventually catches up.  The Euro AIFS EPS was very bullish on snow w/ many members as snow.  I am leaning towards cold winning the day, but am not sold on it.  So, I definitely like hearing the other side of the coin.

[Carvers Gap]

As I have stated prior, the Jan 96 snows were wild.  Knoxville would get lots of ice/snow.  TRI just got slammed w/ heavy snow.  It was wild driving home.  @Holston_River_Ramblerand I were talking about that in this thread.  I would see 4-5" of snow until around mile marker ~45 on I81.  Then, it just started getting deeper.  Knoxville's roads that winter were terrible.  Knox Co ran out of snow days by quite a bit.  I would guess areas of TRI got 30-40" of snow with those two storms.  

I will add...this gradient is most assuredly going to wobble north/south on modeling, and maybe right up to the event.  Very tough to nail that down boundary.  Cold has been over-modeled recently.  I would guess the southern solutions do not verify.  I would also guess someone in this forum is going to have frozen precip falling into temps which are in the teens...west TN would be my first pick.  E TN is a toss-up, but ensembles really like snow/ice in E TN as well.

[Carvers Gap]

The @AMZ8990ice storm....this looks like it could be a redux of that bad storm you all had.  Just not sure about E TN yet.  What year was that, @AMZ8990?  Temps were in the teens while freezing rain and sleet were falling.