January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

27 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Better get something fast,it looks rather bleak right now down the road with that strong ERW thats fixing to pass along the IDL the next few days,Maybe it will weaken some  but this could cause the tropical forcing  to shit towards the WP into the MC,probably end up seeing RMM madness continue,you're seemingly starting to see the NINA background getting taken out now even tho it's still NINA.

The green is convection, right...or is it the brown?

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z EPS looks like a washed out version of the deterministic which I posted a few posts back.  Good trends.

[John1122]

Saw more GAwx research that I believe showed Ph 6 in Nina Januarys averaged out to -2, but with big swings in either direction. January 1977 was something like -8 to -10 while it was in ph 6. 

[Carvers Gap]

21 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Saw more GAwx research that I believe showed Ph 6 in Nina Januarys averaged out to -2, but with big swings in either direction. January 1977 was something like -8 to -10 while it was in ph 6. 

Thanks for that info.  I was having a hard time reconciling what look like really cold maps with that phase.  I know there are times when the MJO has less influence.   

[GaWx]

39 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Saw more GAwx research that I believe showed Ph 6 in Nina Januarys averaged out to -2, but with big swings in either direction. January 1977 was something like -8 to -10 while it was in ph 6. 

Excellent succinct summary! But there’s a typo as you meant Jan of 1976 as opposed to 1977. Also, Jan of 1975 phase 6 was almost as cold. By the way, I calculated the anoms based on GSP because that was near the center of BAM map’s coldest. Other areas would vary of course. I’d still much rather have moderate to weak 8-1-2 as I said for the E US as a whole.

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The green is convection, right...or is it the brown?

Yeah  but the tropical forcing since fall has been more or less into the MC/WP with Rossby and Kelvin waves none the less a standing wave just as well.Its one reason why you see East Asia keep troughs in East Asia continous

 

[jaxjagman]

Edited that about to fall not autumn

[jaxjagman]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Excellent succinct summary! But there’s a typo as you meant Jan of 1976 as opposed to 1977. Also, Jan of 1975 phase 6 was almost as cold. By the way, I calculated the anoms based on GSP because that was near the center of BAM map’s coldest. Other areas would vary of course. I’d still much rather have moderate to weak 8-1-2 as I said for the E US as a whole.

But BAM is missing with the tropical forcing,sorry but hes wrong

[Carvers Gap]

Pretty good looks in my book.  I used to only do long range stuff based on precip anomalies and temp anomalies.  I don't think I am much better today with all of the extra stuff.  Here are some Euro LR ext maps centered on d15-46.  I have attached both the mean and control runs.  You can see below normal temps with above normal precip(yeah, that surprised me).  I actually went through and looked at the precip by 7 day increments to see if it was just one big rainer.  Nope, it looks like normal precip with the exception of the first maybe ten days.  BN temps, AN precip, and a solid 500 map.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Better get something fast,it looks rather bleak right now down the road with that strong ERW thats fixing to pass along the IDL the next few days,Maybe it will weaken some  but this could cause the tropical forcing  to shit towards the WP into the MC,probably end up seeing RMM madness continue,you're seemingly starting to see the NINA background getting taken out now even tho it's still NINA.

So, when I look at that.  I see an East African/IO wave working from 1-2 to 4-5 and then to 6(and then fizzling out).  I also see some convection at the dateline which is phase 8.  Looks like the phase 6 dies out.  In my mind, that would correspond to the warm waves prior to the 12th per lagged composites?  Looks pretty weakfish to me in general with 2-3 strong days in 6.  I think HL blocking eventually trumps it unless it holds onto that stronger look for more than 2-3 days.

[Carvers Gap]

I am not convinced of the correlation between phase 6 and cold.  What I think is occurring is QBO induced HL blocking(in some cases) is simply prevent the MJO signal from having influence over NA.  I think the MJO has a much bigger impact when HL blocking is absent.  

As Cosgrove noted, the best thing we can do is simply look at the vortices lined-up which are approaching the US.  You can kind of see the stormier patterns and deduce timing of such.  Use analogs to fish out a good 500 pattern in addition to wx models.  That is more accurate than relying on simply teleconnections which I am always guilty of...

[Golf757075]

2 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Better get something fast,it looks rather bleak right now down the road with that strong ERW thats fixing to pass along the IDL the next few days,Maybe it will weaken some  but this could cause the tropical forcing  to shit towards the WP into the MC,probably end up seeing RMM madness continue,you're seemingly starting to see the NINA background getting taken out now even tho it's still NINA.

Do you think the blocking advertised won't verify? Just curious. Always tough in the south for various reasons

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Excellent succinct summary! But there’s a typo as you meant Jan of 1976 as opposed to 1977. Also, Jan of 1975 phase 6 was almost as cold. By the way, I calculated the anoms based on GSP because that was near the center of BAM map’s coldest. Other areas would vary of course. I’d still much rather have moderate to weak 8-1-2 as I said for the E US as a whole.

GaWx thanks for your input & coming into this forum sharing. 

[jaxjagman]

3 minutes ago, Golf757075 said:

Do you think the blocking advertised won't verify? Just curious. Always tough in the south for various reasons

I just dont think BAM is right.

This winter  we see the tropical forcing is more or less has been into the WP/MC,its kinda opposite of what he says.

You can actually look when East Tn got its early season snow was when the GAAM was positive and not negative.The GAAM should still sync up with the MJO to couple with it.

[Golf757075]

3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I just dont think BAM is right.

This winter  we see the tropical forcing is more or less has been into the WP/MC,its kinda opposite of what he says.

You can actually look when East Tn got its early season snow was when the GAAM was positive and not negative.The GAAM should still sync up with the MJO to couple with it.

What do you mean by the last sentence jax?

[jaxjagman]

I mean, when i see the MJO and the GAAM in spring coupled with each other id be getting excited with severe weather if the MJO was into phase  one or two,its just not coupled right now,but this winter we have gotten our cold when the AAM is positive not negative,what you are seeing now

[jaxjagman]

9 minutes ago, Golf757075 said:

What do you mean by the last sentence jax?

The GAAM albeit was still in the COD,it was still positive

[Golf757075]

7 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I mean, when i see the MJO and the GAAM in spring coupled with each other id be getting excited with severe weather if the MJO was into phase  one or two,its just not coupled right now,but this winter we have gotten our cold when the AAM is positive not negative,what you are seeing now

Ok. Hopefully we can score mid-end of January because that may be our only opportunity all winter, especially if ninas are typically warm in February 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Better get something fast,it looks rather bleak right now down the road with that strong ERW thats fixing to pass along the IDL the next few days,Maybe it will weaken some  but this could cause the tropical forcing  to shit towards the WP into the MC,probably end up seeing RMM madness continue,you're seemingly starting to see the NINA background getting taken out now even tho it's still NINA.

Yeah, that's valid points Jax. I'm sure you meant Shift though  lol.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

Saw more GAwx research that I believe showed Ph 6 in Nina Januarys averaged out to -2, but with big swings in either direction. January 1977 was something like -8 to -10 while it was in ph 6. 

Yeah, so much for the MJO 6 always warm ideaology. Jan. 77 coldest in modern History.  Btw, that was a weak El nino Winter, if that has little if any different affect on the Outcome.

[Carvers Gap]

I think it is also worth noting that NE TN and SW VA may well see some snow in the air tomorrow if the 18z RGEM is correct.

[John1122]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Excellent succinct summary! But there’s a typo as you meant Jan of 1976 as opposed to 1977. Also, Jan of 1975 phase 6 was almost as cold. By the way, I calculated the anoms based on GSP because that was near the center of BAM map’s coldest. Other areas would vary of course. I’d still much rather have moderate to weak 8-1-2 as I said for the E US as a whole.

Thanks for the update. I couldn't remember if it was '76 or '77 when I went to type that out. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I am not convinced of the correlation between phase 6 and cold.  What I think is occurring is QBO induced HL blocking(in some cases) is simply prevent the MJO signal from having influence over NA.  I think the MJO has a much bigger impact when HL blocking is absent.  

As Cosgrove noted, the best thing we can do is simply look at the vortices lined-up which are approaching the US.  You can kind of see the stormier patterns and deduce timing of such.  Use analogs to fish out a good 500 pattern in addition to wx models.  That is more accurate than relying on simply teleconnections which I am always guilty of...

You're right and right about Coz being right imo. I think I got that right. 

  Sometimes things just go against the grain; atypical patterns and paths. Chaos, multiple, diverse Driver's etc. The strongly negative QBO is without a Doubt a Player in my Mind.

 

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Thanks for the update. I couldn't remember if it was '76 or '77 when I went to type that out. 

Yw man . I knew you knew. Just a mistake we sometimes make. '76 was the January..it was a cold one in these parts. Not alot of Snow but several small one's. Dry overall. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z AIGFS is straight up frigid.  Let's continue to keep an eye on Jan 12th.  If we can get that down to roughly 7 days, that may be a legit time to track something decent.  That run had a decent snowstorm for middle and west.  My main concern is this...if modeling, which has tended to under model cold fronts(exception Jan 2), then that cold could be stronger than shown.