26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I love you 

Much better to have everyone in SNE involved in this, than me typing to myself on the forum all night and getting weenied left and right...

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Much better to have everyone in SNE involved in this, than me typing to myself on the forum all night and getting weenied left and right...

Yeah I don’t have to jack, just want something decent. Good luck to all you in CT

[vortex95]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z gfs ticked NE too.

Not a "tickle?" 

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

I can't speak for other markets but at least in Hartford-New Haven I think the average TV forecast is typically more conservative than the NWS and also more frequently correct. 

But they were much better 25 and especially 30 plus years ago in a comparative sense to what else was out there at that time . This is also back when they nailed some great forecasts with storms in the early to mid 80s for example. The difference was that when the forecast were off at game time it often was because the computers were off hundreds of miles on a low pressure track whereas now its usually under 100. 

The NWS forecasts coupled with TWC was kind of unbeatable. There was not the amount of fluff forecasters as later in the 90s and turn of the Century. The period of 1981-1997 on TWC had some of the all time great OCMs. Mark Mancuso, Bill Kenelley, the late Jenetta Jones, Bruce Edwards and Jim Cantore BEFORE he jumped the shark, just to name a few. Those were some great years for weather.

[ORH_wxman]

Wondering if we can really rip on an ORH-PVD line now fora couple hours. That ML fronto has been holding together stronger on each run. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Man Vortex loves to troll Scooter . Every post over the last year is a S Wey troll Scooter post. Things you love to see 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Wondering if we can really rip on an ORH-PVD line now fora couple hours. That ML fronto has been holding together stronger on each run. 

RAP is beast mode EOR

[weatherwiz]

This really got solidified quickly. This is a phenomenal sign

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man Vortex loves to troll Scooter . Every post over the last year is a S Wey troll Scooter post. Things you love to see 

He’s a former coworker who I taught how to forecast. 

[dendrite]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That is a slam band for sure now east of BGM. Hope that keeps ripping east 

That had the TS with it. Definitely some convection in there…looks like some graupel/snow pellets in the ptype algorithm despite high CC. Must be some rimed flakes in there.

[Damage In Tolland]

This kind of reminds me of one of those storms that looks great for most of interior SNE and before you know it.. it’s congrats Dendy .. only this time SNE is NJ and NYC and SNE is Dendy 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This kind of reminds me of one of those storms that looks great for most of interior SNE and before you know it.. it’s congrats Dendy .. only this time SNE is NJ and NYC and SNE is Dendy 

Beer?

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s a former coworker who I taught how to forecast. 

[weatherwiz]

I had to turn off mPING reports. 8,000,00 report about how sidewalks are being covered with snow. I'm looking for totals and trying to decipher rates. Don't need to know your sidewalk is covered 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Beer?

Only on first . Has that look on radar 

[vortex95]

Some other thoughts on this event.

It's not a typical clipper as it moves SE the entire time. It also can't rapidly develop offshore, at least initially b/c it is too "crowded." The strong cold front and disturbance aloft the gave the SN to northern New England yesterday? That system rapidly developed last night S of Nova Scotia and is now intense (see 12z sfc map attached). So when it is crowded like this, another trough/disturbance so close behind it often has no "room" to develop much, and will get forced more SE rather than E.

As I mentioned yesterday, this is a *darn* good snowfall for such a weak low pressure. The sfc low does not get below 1006 mb as it passes. Usually, a snowfall of this magnitude has low pressure below 1000 and more often closer to 990.  And aloft at 500, it is nothing special either. Just a little "dent" in strong WNW flow. The strong Arctic high pressure to our NE supplying a wedge of low-level cold air damning to the SW over the region makes all the difference here.

Who would have thought having the mean trough position too far *east* for an East Coast weenie blockbuster could do this?  CoastalWx recently told me, "this pattern BLOWS!"  Ok, does it now? 

And it is not a case of the ambient pressure field in place prior keeping the low from not getting that "deep."  The sfc high to the NE is "only" 1033 mb and center well NE near Labrador, and, as I said above, nothing much at all at 500, and even at 850, it barely cuts off one contour, so not a low-least beast like a Gulf wave often is.

The 18z HRRR is forecasting up to 18" in central NY (Cooperstown area). There is no lake effect snow involved here and elevation in that area is not a factor (no little bulls-eyes on the higher areas, it's a broad 12-18" area), so 12-18" is a lot for such a weak storm like this.  That much synoptic snow from a clipper?

And another factor I think? It's been very mild W of New England across a large part of the country, and very wet storms have been impacting the West, so more moisture in the mean is available overall and associated w/ the clipper. So you can "blame" the more snow here from mild winter temps partially! Imagine that.

[CoastalWx]

Lot of weenies in NE PA arguing for colder solutions only to get ZR now. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Lot of weenies in NE PA arguing for colder solutions only to get ZR now. 

There’s sleet near NYC . Maybe it mixes out for a time 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Some other thoughts on this event.

It's not a typical clipper as it moves SE the entire time. It also can't rapidly develop offshore, at least initially b/c it is too "crowded." The strong cold front and disturbance aloft the gave the SN to northern New England yesterday? That system rapidly developed last night S of Nova Scotia and is now intense (see 12z sfc map attached). So when it is crowded like this, another trough/disturbance so close behind it often has no "room" to develop much, and will get forced more SE rather than E.

As I mentioned yesterday, this is a *darn* good snowfall for such a weak low pressure. The sfc low does not get below 1006 mb as it passes. Usually, a snowfall of this magnitude has low pressure below 1000 and more often closer to 990.  And aloft at 500, it is nothing special either. Just a little "dent" in strong WNW flow. The strong Arctic high pressure to our NE supplying a wedge of low-level cold air damning to the SW over the region makes all the difference here.

Who would have thought having the mean trough position too far *east* for an East Coast weenie blockbuster could do this?  CoastalWx recently told me, "this pattern BLOWS!"  Ok, does it now? 

And it is not a case of the ambient pressure field in place prior keeping the low from not getting that "deep."  The sfc high to the NE is "only" 1033 mb and center well NE near Labrador, and, as I said above, nothing much at all at 500, and even at 850, it barely cuts off one contour, so not a low-least beast like a Gulf wave often is.

The 18z HRRR is forecasting up to 18" in central NY (Cooperstown area). There is no lake effect snow involved here and elevation in that area is not a factor (no little bulls-eyes on the higher areas, it's a broad 12-18" area), so 12-18" is a lot for such a weak storm like this.  That much synoptic snow from a clipper?

And another factor I think? It's been very mild W of New England across a large part of the country, and very wet storms have been impacting the West, so more moisture in the mean is available overall and associated w/ the clipper. So you can "blame" the more snow here from mild winter temps partially! Imagine that.

Great post. I mentioned yesterday that 12/14/95 was the top analog on CIPS (at least it was yesterday)…similar setup with a very mild center of the country and a weakish disturbance running into a cold dome over New England. That one was a bit further north but same idea. 

[vortex95]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Great post. I mentioned yesterday that 12/14/95 was the top analog on CIPS (at least it was yesterday)…similar setup with a very mild center of the country and a weakish disturbance running into a cold dome over New England. That one was a bit further north but same idea. 

And the next thought? 
"OMG, last one was in the 95-96 winter!!!!!"  Make this winter a LOCK!!!!"

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/mikestanislaw/status/2004659826404827319?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[met_fan]

Turned to sleet here, about 10 miles east of Binghamton…if it stays like this it’s only going to be about 3 inches instead of 6+ forecast

[weatherwiz]

BGM closed! 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

And the next thought? 
"OMG, last one was in the 95-96 winter!!!!!"  Make this winter a LOCK!!!!"

What’s your call here? I went 1-3 this morning with the caveat of more with OE. Might be one of those situations where the CF is near or just east of me with some enhancement. I hope anyways. Pete B went wild but I’d rather him write it off.  

[George001]

I’m not super invested in the result (given it will probably melt soon and it’s not going to be a lot of snow here), but I have been horribly wrong about how I thought this storm would play out (I thought the modeled NW-SE track was bullshit, and it’s clearly not). So I am invested in this from the perspective of someone looking to use this as a learning experience. We haven’t had a lot of blocking in recent years so I am out of practice, but this reminds me a bit of the late March 2018 setup where LI got buried and the dry air won out farther NE. 
 

I’ll take a stab at it. I’m leaning towards the cold dry air winning out for my area, thinking more 2-3 than 4-6 here. Farther west is a different story, this one looks good for you guys. The radar does look more juiced than guidance, which could potentially lead to the storm overperforming for areas where the dry air doesn’t win out.

[vortex95]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lot of weenies in NE PA arguing for colder solutions only to get ZR now. 

Sounds like a Richmond VA area complaint from "MIDLO!"

So mild just to the W.  95% of the CONUS currently has 500 heights AOA 540 dm.  And w/ 554 dm heights over NE PA?  What do they expect?
 

[vortex95]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What’s your call here? I went 1-3 this morning with the caveat of more with OE. Might be one of those situations where the CF is near or just east of me with some enhancement. I hope anyways. Pete B went wild but I’d rather him write it off.  

6" so you can officially declare that stupid no 6" snowfall drought OV-A!

[Tolland Death Band]

In NYC Queens. First band was a graupel shower now back to virga. Unimpressed 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

6" so you can officially declare that stupid no 6" snowfall drought OV-A!

Aggressive for Boris!

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

6" so you can officially declare that stupid no 6" snowfall drought OV-A!

Hopefully just 5.4”