Boxing Night Snow/Sleet/Ice Dec 26-27 Storm Thread/Obs.

[Berks_SnowMan]

Looks like C-2 of snow and sleet for most, even the poconos.

Eastern pa should upgrade to a winter weather advisory at 330pm.


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I don’t think so…I think they will wait to see if it meets warning criteria. Things are still too much in flux.


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[Ralph Wiggum]

Ukmet is messy, not a horrible run if you like snow and mix

[penndotguy]

17 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

Looks like C-2 of snow and sleet for most, even the poconos.

Eastern pa should upgrade to a winter weather advisory at 330pm.


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yeah i would think so, however if significant sleet and icing will occur they might issue a warning.

[Duca892]

Actually I wouldn’t be surprised if they still upgraded to a warning depending on sleet/FR totals across the Valley

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, penndotguy said:

Pretty amazing 2days ago I thought there was no chance this would trend N with the blocking that was forecast but I’ve been around here long enough to know  i should’ve known better than to trust any models 4-5 days out. By days end this will be a nothing burger for this sub forum. 
Merry Christmas

Sometimes, the models get it right. The best forecast this year was from the Euro (and just about every other model than the GFS) locking in the March 29 warming event 4-5 days out. (The GFS showed temperatures in the 30s instead.)

[Voyager]

52 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

yeah i would think so, however if significant sleet and icing will occur they might issue a warning.

I'm hoping Penndot leaves the level 3 restrictions in place. That gives me a legitimate excuse to tell the boss I'm parking the big truck before things get bad.

This is one storm I don't want to be out in in a tractor trailer.

[anthonyweather]

WWA for most aside from Monroe


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[penndotguy]

WWA just issued for Berks, Lehigh 1-3” snow/sleet. Just run of mill typical mess recently 

[RedSky]

31 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

WWA just issued for Berks, Lehigh 1-3” snow/sleet. Just run of mill typical mess recently 

The same advisory for Jim Thorpe and the Pocono's ouch

 

[RedSky]

.30" liquid drought begets drought 

 

[penndotguy]

It seems like the blocking patterns are a thing of the past, I though that little system that came through Tuesday Morning was gonna be the 50/50 we needed as well but that’s not worked out either. So we nickle and dime our way again. Just one warning type snow 6”plus would be nice this year. Long ways to go yet I guess.

[Ralph Wiggum]

13 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

It seems like the blocking patterns are a thing of the past, I though that little system that came through Tuesday Morning was gonna be the 50/50 we needed as well but that’s not worked out either. So we nickle and dime our way again. Just one warning type snow 6”plus would be nice this year. Long ways to go yet I guess.

We had blocking a good chunk of the past 2 winters.

The nao is currently east-based. It isnt set to transition to a west based (more favorable) -nao until middle of next week....and even there is a little east of where we would like to see it.

You need more than blocking to get a good storm. That is only 1 aspect.

Eta: there is also quite a difference between a ridge in the nao and a true closed block.

 

 

[ChescoWx]

33 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

It seems like the blocking patterns are a thing of the past, I though that little system that came through Tuesday Morning was gonna be the 50/50 we needed as well but that’s not worked out either. So we nickle and dime our way again. Just one warning type snow 6”plus would be nice this year. Long ways to go yet I guess.

That said many of us are more than 150% of normal snowfall and having a well below normal temperature December. We are about to see our 6th winter event of this young winter season. Snow begets snow and I very much suspect we have many more winter weather events in our future. Keep the faith those of you on Team Snow!

[LVblizzard]

Been awhile since we had a big sleet bomb…looks like that will be happening tomorrow night. Still doesn’t compare to V-Day 2007, the mother of all sleet storms.

[penndotguy]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We had blocking a good chunk of the past 2 winters.

The nao is currently east-based. It isnt set to transition to a west based (more favorable) -nao until middle of next week....and even there is a little east of where we would like to see it.

You need more than blocking to get a good storm. That is only 1 aspect.

Eta: there is also quite a difference between a ridge in the nao and a true closed block.

 

 

I think that’s what I was trying to get at the blocking we had just wasn’t West based enough, but Thanks for the clarification though. I’m trying to figure this out.

[RedSky]

13 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Been awhile since we had a big sleet bomb…looks like that will be happening tomorrow night. Still doesn’t compare to V-Day 2007, the mother of all sleet storms.

.30" of precip isn't going to be much sleet

[penndotguy]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

That said many of us are more than 150% of normal snowfall and having a well below normal temperature December. We are about to see our 6th winter event of this young winter season. Snow begets snow and I very much suspect we have many more winter weather events in our future. Keep the faith those of you on Team Snow!

No doubt, it’s been an early start and trust me I’m not complaining at all about the snow so far I’ll take whatever we can get, but man it would be great to have a true classic snowstorm, been awhile

[RU848789]

NWS finally updated their map, below, which shows Metuchen just about on the 6" line which kind of is within the 3-5" range for us in the advisory, but is also within the 4-8" range on my point and click. This snowfall map also makes sense with the warnings for ~6" for Morris/Warren and Sussex. They really need to issue their updates across all products at the same time or close to it, not over 2+ hours (their advisories/warnings were issued around 1 pm).  
 

 

 

[Duca892]

These trending to being just a meh nuisance is so disappointing 

[LVblizzard]

30 minutes ago, RedSky said:

.30" of precip isn't going to be much sleet

If you buy how dry the NAMs are…I personally don’t. Sleet ratios are typically around 3:1 and I think we get at least an inch of pure sleet, along with up to an inch of snow.

[RedSky]

GFS brings back yesterday's storm like a Christmas miracle

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

GFS brings back yesterday's storm like a Christmas miracle

Trend was clearly South past 3 runs.

[LVblizzard]

0z HRRR has 6” in Allentown and 4” down to Philly. Not buying it though…I’ve seen this before where the HRRR severely underestimates mid-level warm air. The NAM is about to come out and I’m pretty confident it’ll show something entirely different.

[ChescoWx]

4 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

If you buy how dry the NAMs are…I personally don’t. Sleet ratios are typically around 3:1 and I think we get at least an inch of pure sleet, along with up to an inch of snow.

In your area agree 100%

[LVblizzard]

30 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

0z HRRR has 6” in Allentown and 4” down to Philly. Not buying it though…I’ve seen this before where the HRRR severely underestimates mid-level warm air. The NAM is about to come out and I’m pretty confident it’ll show something entirely different.

And it did. Virtually no snow even for the Poconos. Amazing that we’re less than 24 hours out and there’s this much disagreement. This is the definition of a nowcast event.

[Berks_SnowMan]

Question…I’m not expecting much snow in the Berks County area, but it’s strange to see many of the maps which show the ice storm to the west and snow to the east. It makes it seem like it’s basically nothing here. Is the QPF actually less, or is it just that the sleet makes it seem less overall. To be honest an inch of sleet is a mess worse than a few inches of snow in my opinion.


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[penndotguy]

23 minutes ago, Berks_SnowMan said:

Question…I’m not expecting much snow in the Berks County area, but it’s strange to see many of the maps which show the ice storm to the west and snow to the east. It makes it seem like it’s basically nothing here. Is the QPF actually less, or is it just that the sleet makes it seem less overall. To be honest an inch of sleet is a mess worse than a few inches of snow in my opinion.


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I think us out here in Berks will see maybe 1-2” of snow before the sleet mix’s in total with the sleet 1-3” then some freezing rain. But as has been stated I agree it’s now casting time there is no real agreement and we are inside 24 hr start time now.