winter_warlock Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Just now, TSSN+ said: Last 4 runs. Keeps expanding and filling nw. Nice!! That's what we wanna see!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 0z ICON much better than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Last 4 runs. Keeps expanding and filling nw. Thickness lines descending to our west and rising to the east run to run, nice. Hopefully we are close enough that doesn't become a bad thing where temps become more of an issue (but you'd have more insurance than us down here). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 8 hours ago Author Share Posted 8 hours ago 5 minutes ago, bncho said: 0z ICON much better than 18z I don’t think anyone cares about the icon at this point lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago I'm sure i'm late to the party but it looks like all 00z guidance got wetter and more widespread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago There is a subtle but definite trend of a deeper trough as that ball of vorticity digs a bit more southwestward over the past several runs. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 1 minute ago, CAPE said: There is a subtle but definite trend of a deeper trough as that ball of vorticity digs a bit more southwestward over the past several runs. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: There is a subtle but definite trend of a deeper trough as that ball of vorticity digs a bit more southwestward over the past several runs. That's what I want to see in order to get in on the action. Otherwise I'll (and anyone to the S and W of me) will get shut out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Still a NE MD/N DE jackpot but notable expansion northwestward of accum snow where there was barely anything on previous runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 8 hours ago Author Share Posted 8 hours ago Just now, CAPE said: Still a NE MD/N DE jackpot but notable expansion northwestward of accum snow where there was barely anything on previous runs. Have made it to the 1” line on gfs after being no where near accumulating snows previous days. Keep it coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 8 hours ago Author Share Posted 8 hours ago CMC looks like Rgem. An overall nice snow for all the areas that haven’t had much. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: CMC looks like Rgem. An overall nice snow for all the areas that haven’t had much. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: CMC looks like Rgem. An overall nice snow for all the areas that haven’t had much. Yeah that's a nice run- a general 3-5 for much of the region. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 1 hour ago, LP08 said: It’s in pivotal. Having trouble uploading. Gets 2-3 to dc, 6 in PSU/Mappy land The RUFUS is my new favorite model. Can't wait to repeatedly get Rufus'd in the years ahead. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago GFS has over 0.6” of QPF at Deep Creek through Sunday night with upslope snow showers continuing. What a weenie run. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 5 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: The RUFUS is my new favorite model. Can't wait to repeatedly get Rufus'd in the years ahead. whenever i see somebody say that in the future, i'll smile on the inside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Still lots of disagreement on the western extent of the band, gfs doesn’t bring it much here while the cmc does all the way to the BR. Mesos are somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Btw, Pivotal’s new beta site is so much better than the old one. Took me a minute to figure out the navigation but once I did, its really good. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Ukie. Warmth in Metros kill accumulations. Don't like new Pivotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Ukie. Warmth in Metros kill accumulations. Don't like new Pivotal. Pivot has some rough graphics man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 7 hours ago Author Share Posted 7 hours ago 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie. Warmth in Metros kill accumulations. Don't like new Pivotal. Looks good for us though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 7 hours ago Author Share Posted 7 hours ago @mitchnick URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 1114 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 PAZ065-066-131700- /O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0025.251214T0000Z-251214T1800Z/ York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Lancaster and York 1114 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 3 inches. Locally higher spot amounts are possible. * WHERE...Lancaster and York Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie. Warmth in Metros kill accumulations. Don't like new Pivotal. Ukie used to be a better model…it just seems to always be off the last few years. I’d trust the higher resolution models at this point. I do think DC will likely be just under 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie. Warmth in Metros kill accumulations. Don't like new Pivotal. UKIE isn’t exactly awesome at thermals. Given nothing else showing so much precip lost to rain, I’m gonna do a weenie move and toss the snow output and just look at the QPF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Just now, nj2va said: Ukie used to be a better model…it just seems to always be off the last few years. I’d trust the higher resolution models at this point. I do think DC will likely be just under 10:1 ratios. It seems to be the warmest model overall too. Now we can watch and see if any of the other models get warmer tomorrow, but if not...it could be on it's own. We actually haven't talked much about any potential temp issues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: It seems to be the warmest model overall too. Now we can watch and see if any of the other models get warmer tomorrow, but if not...it could be on it's own. We actually haven't talked much about any potential temp issues... It sucks with temps IMO. I’d rely on Euro/3k/etc for that at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Jackpot over my house on that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago It seems to be the warmest model overall too. Now we can watch and see if any of the other models get warmer tomorrow, but if not...it could be on it's own. We actually haven't talked much about any potential temp issues...High res > Ukie for this setup for sure 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago What’s the latest NBM blend looking like @CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 9 minutes ago, jayyy said: What’s the latest NBM blend looking like @CAPE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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