Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

12z AI GFS QPF ticked west again


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was just looking it over.  SLP also came a bit W of 6z.  

[Mount Joy Snowman]

7 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

12z AI GFS QPF ticked west again


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Yeah, AI was a good bit juicer with the qpf.

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

12z AI GFS QPF ticked west again


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based on SLP track, one could argue that qpf depicted above is a bit underdone for skook n points NE.

[Superstorm]

MU take:




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[pasnownut]

goalposts narrowed a bit, but subtle changes can make big differences for our W vs E sub members.  Still need to watch NS and how it dives in.  Need that to hold and not fold (some nooners less neg tilt, and some were a touch better).  Root for earlier interaction to keep trough neg so this thing can come up and not up/out. 

Based on progressive trough theme of this winter, its a worry of mine, but fortunately we are getting close enough that big surprises are starting to wane a bit.  

[AccuChris]

12z Euro AI continues to slowly improve as well


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[AccuChris]

12z Euro Op continues to improve. Not all the way to GFS land but everyone takes another step closer


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