Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Mount Joy Snowman]

NAM comes around in a big way.  Not saying this verifies but man would this come as a surprise to many people. 

[Superstorm]

NAM comes around in a big way.  Not saying this verifies but man would this come as a surprise to many people. 

Might have to start thinking about advisories


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[GrandmasterB]

8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

NAM comes around in a big way.  Not saying this verifies but man would this come as a surprise to many people. 

Could be an interesting day of model watching. 

[GrandmasterB]

On 2/11/2026 at 9:12 AM, Itstrainingtime said:

Okay, if that's true, and I'll take your word for it, then please start at least sharing some positive things to balance your posts out. If anyone would look at your posting history in this thread, it is filled with these words/phrases:

"Whiff" (a bunch)

Wayyy south (a bunch)

Rain (too many)

Rainer (this is a new one today)

Miss (far too often)

That is almost literally your posting history here. How are we to accept you if this is all that you contribute? 

 

Today is Mickey’s day to shine!

[DDweatherman]

3k Nam made a big move as well towards the snowier camp. Lots more phasing earlier on. 

[Superstorm]

Today is Mickey’s day to shine!

Lmbo. To funny!


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[Superstorm]

3k Nam made a big move as well towards the snowier camp. Lots more phasing earlier on. 

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[MickeyTim6533]

21 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Today is Mickey’s day to shine!

im trying to stay quiet to watch and learn, i have genuine interest in all this. i enjoy the analysis from the more knowledgeable FOLKS on here. I am also curious why "no snow Flo" got so quiet? lol

[GrandmasterB]

5 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

im trying to stay quiet to watch and learn, i have genuine interest in all this. i enjoy the analysis from the more knowledgeable FOLKS on here. I am also curious why "no snow Flo" got so quiet? lol

All good. Just busting some chops! 

[Blizzard of 93]

Great to see the NAMs joining the GFS this morning!

The last big storm a few weeks ago, the NAMs did well at least with thermals, hopefully they continue & lock in later today.

[pasnownut]

40 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

NAM comes around in a big way.  Not saying this verifies but man would this come as a surprise to many people. 

 

Not to me.  I said it days ago.  Wasnt understanding why this was stuck in the south.  NAO lifting out says come north to me, and wasnt adding up for it to drift aimlessly due east. 

I am surprised it took so long for some majors to latch on, but I'm glad they are. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

RRFS, FV3, and HRW sisters are all on board for a few inches across much of the forum.  This is getting interesting.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

GFS holds steady with a few inches for southern parts of the forum.  Slightly less qpf than prior runs.

[Blizzard of 93]

6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

GFS holds steady with a few inches for southern parts of the forum.  Slightly less qpf than prior runs.

Yes, solid hold for the 12z GFS and in line with the 12z NAMs.

[canderson]

Have a colonoscopy at 7 am Monday. I really really really really don’t want any snow. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

Have a colonoscopy at 7 am Monday. I really really really really don’t want any snow. 

The storm doesn’t want you to experience anesthesia, sorry. 

[Storm Clouds]

What’s the timing on this? 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

4 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said:

What’s the timing on this? 

Would likely start as a light rain sometime during the mid afternoon and transition to a steady snow during the evening hours. 

[Itstrainingtime]

I was gung-ho on tomorrow 10 days ago. Mostly about there being a storm and not necessarily snow. I'm a tad less enthused today. My issue is that we are going to need rates...like at least moderate if not heavy to get things going. Otherwise we're looking at rain followed by essentially white rain. I've seen this scenario play out a lot over the years. We can do this but we better get into good precip...

[canderson]

19 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

The storm doesn’t want you to experience anesthesia, sorry. 

I’ll be beyond livid if I deal with tmrw’a prep and no sleep just for some annoying snow that’s melt by noon Monday cancel the appt.

Meanwhile curios if someone here hits 50 today. I’m at 44 already. 

[Itstrainingtime]

I'm sure I'll be frowned upon. We don't have a good air mass. It's not like a March day when it's 55 but there's a NW wind cranking a fresh supply of colder air. What we have is stale. We can make stale work and night will help some but we need dynamics. GFS was a red flag to me. Less QPF is not our friend right now.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I was gung-ho on tomorrow 10 days ago. Mostly about there being a storm and not necessarily snow. I'm a tad less enthused today. My issue is that we are going to need rates...like at least moderate if not heavy to get things going. Otherwise we're looking at rain followed by essentially white rain. I've seen this scenario play out a lot over the years. We can do this but we better get into good precip...

Yeah it will take some rates for sure but that's what some of the meso's are showing down our way.  You are right though, what's being depicted as snowfall on these maps will surely not amount to that much on the ground with the marginal temps in place.  Heck, I was scouring through skew-T's earlier and we really would be walking the tight rope through the lower part of the column, with a wet snow and a surface right around freezing.  Could be fun though.

[GrandmasterB]

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm sure I'll be frowned upon. We don't have a good air mass. It's not like a March day when it's 55 but there's a NW wind cranking a fresh supply of colder air. What we have is stale. We can make stale work and night will help some but we need dynamics. GFS was a red flag to me. Less QPF is not our friend right now.

I don’t disagree, but the current solution as modeled is better than the precip missing us to the south by 300 miles. At least we have a shot with the precip now. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Agreed, if we get moderate rates, we will snow tomorrow evening.

The track is ideal to work with a marginal air mass at this time of year.

There is not a primary low tracking toward northern WV this time.

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I don’t disagree, but the current solution as modeled is better than the precip missing us to the south by 300 miles. At least we have a shot with the precip now. 

Absolutely! And that's why I am hopeful if not a bit skeptical. We can pull this off for sure. We just need a little more than we have needed for a while.

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yeah it will take some rates for sure but that's what some of the meso's are showing down our way.  You are right though, what's being depicted as snowfall on these maps will surely not amount to that much on the ground with the marginal temps in place.  Heck, I was scouring through skew-T's earlier and we really would be walking the tight rope through the lower part of the column, with a wet snow and a surface right around freezing.  Could be fun though.

Tight rope is a good term for this. Very much so. Or the proverbial thread the needle.