Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Subliminal87]

10 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

That is an insane drive to work.

Only do it part time luckily.  Every weekend a 24 hour shift and bounce.  I used to live closer so it was easier. But a 24 and done isn’t terrible.  
 

turnpike drive sucks though. 

[pasnownut]

17 minutes ago, Ruin said:

pretty much all rdy do because I model hate because of things like today that happen. they dont like me calling out how shitty models are. they fail to understand Im a snow lover but also understand how shitty these models can be 

We are trying to understand why you are here. You offer nothing but pessimism and everything you hate about models but offer little to the real discussion. For many of us this is fun even when jt doesn’t work out as per the best snowmap seen during the last couple days. We too are bummed but know better as this isn’t our first rodeo. 

[canderson]

14 minutes ago, Subliminal87 said:

Live in Mechanicsburg but work in Montgomery county.  
 

currently have a blizzard warning here.  
 

almost called off of work today too. Glad I didn’t. I hope I can manage to drive home in the rain lol

Wait is it not snowing at all in MontCo?

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, dcfox1 said:

On the bright side the dry gap over northern York and Lancaster Co appears to be filling in here though it is a light mix.

Intensity picking up here. Just gotta find the switch so I can flip it. Hehe. 

[MAG5035]

I-81 from Shippensburg on south is starting to look snowy on the 511 cams. 

Additionally US 322 goes from snow on the ground on the Lewistown side of the narrows to bare ground on the Mifflintown side. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Temps seem to finally be on the retreat.  Some people in our neck of the woods should start flipping soon as the better returns move in from the southeast.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

4 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Still dry here. Nothing but light flurries.

And yes, I'm disgusted and quite negative right now. So much so, that I now hope we sit in this dryslot the rest of the storm and don't get anything. Being a warmanista,at first I didn't want it, but I've also mentioned that I'm a go big or go home guy. I don't like the 1-3, 2-4 storms. As such, once the models (and forecasts) upped the ante, I then wanted it. I'm a sucker for a good double digit snowstorm, but alas, the rug (as of now, anyway) has been pulled out. Since anything big now seems to be off the table, I'd rather enjoy looking at my bare, grassy backyard, and keeping the salt trucks parked so they don't muck up the roads again.

If you need cheered up, a freshman wrestler from Tamaqua won a District 11 championship last night.

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Temps seem to finally be on the retreat.  Some people in our neck of the woods should start flipping soon as the better returns move in from the southeast.

Yes, the radar is showing heavier precip is starting to pivot into southeast York & eastern Lanco backing to the west.

[Ruin]

16 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

We are trying to understand why you are here. You offer nothing but pessimism and everything you hate about models but offer little to the real discussion. For many of us this is fun even when jt doesn’t work out as per the best snowmap seen during the last couple days. We too are bummed but know better as this isn’t our first rodeo. 

Im trying to understand why people always defend the models I dont question your right to be here. I have every right to be here I dont attack any one like ive been attacked by some. I go after how bad the models are over the years and say we deserve better. no one can ever give me a honest answer how accurate the models are. the only helpful reply I once got is they dont really track or have a website for that.

[Blizzard92]

As much as I want the snow too, it is fairly interesting and rare to see this set-up where the LSV is one of the only locations still reporting rain (with snow now falling in all surrounding directions)... reflected in the station mesonet too for temperatures still in the upper 30s here.

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Temps seem to finally be on the retreat.  Some people in our neck of the woods should start flipping soon as the better returns move in from the southeast.

I found the switch. Just need to hold it down. Flakage flip underway in Akron. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Blizzard92 said:

As much as I want the snow too, it is fairly interesting and rare to see this set-up where the LSV is one of the only locations still reporting rain (with snow now falling in all surrounding directions)... reflected in the station mesonet too for temperatures still in the upper 30s here.

It is remarkable in all of the wrong ways, lol!

[Ruin]

23 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Have you ever bought into any model?  The constant negative undertones are tiring…

yes I have just recently in fact the big snow we had this year. 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, Ruin said:

Im trying to understand why people always defend the models I dont question your right to be here. I have every right to be here I dont attack any one like ive been attacked by some. I go after how bad the models are over the years and say we deserve better. no one can ever give me a honest answer how accurate the models are. the only helpful reply I once got is they dont really track or have a website for that.

Who defended them?  Gfs absolutely led the way. Others followed. Like it or not we are still 50 miles away from boomtown. As I’ve said to you before you like to see something on a models and expect it to happen. Most of us that have been doing this a long time know better and have said so. We don’t bash the models because we know there is more to it than modelwatching. You don’t get that…and we do. We also inderstand model tendencies and bias.  You don’t. You want perfect. How bout you go away and I’ll let you know when we find perfect, or just listen and learn while injecting your thoughts as to why you knew they’d be wrong…

[MAG5035]

Surface obs and radar line up pretty good showing the convergence zone for that inverted trough band. 

It has finally begun to snow again here, lightly. Temps are back below freezing as well back to 31ºF. At this point I’d consider another 1-2” from this event a win with that band setting up to the east of here. 

 

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, Blizzard92 said:

As much as I want the snow too, it is fairly interesting and rare to see this set-up where the LSV is one of the only locations still reporting rain (with snow now falling in all surrounding directions)... reflected in the station mesonet too for temperatures still in the upper 30s here.

Some mesos started to show the Lanco donut hole last evening and my eyebrows raised as I knew mesos do quite a good job when in their wheelhouse. They were correct. 
 

we have flipped in Akron. Steady light snow. 

[Subliminal87]

23 minutes ago, canderson said:

Wait is it not snowing at all in MontCo?

It took forever but it’s snowing finally.  
 

I didn’t think it would ever stop raining and switch lol. I got two hours left of my shift and I think at this rate, the roads will just be wet luckily.  If you asked me yesterday at this time, I thought for sure it would be sketchy by this time. 

[WmsptWx]

It continues to snow here. The fading sun and heavier rate of precip has allowed for accumulation to continue. Eyeballing maybe 4". 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Temp of 35 and dropping as the switch is underway here.  Now I need to go wipe off the puddles from my measuring table haha.

[Voyager]

10 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

If you need cheered up, a freshman wrestler from Tamaqua won a District 11 championship last night.

I didn't know that. My wife didn't either.

And I'm kind of sorry that I deleted the post you quoted. After re-reading it, I felt it was way too negative and didn't belong in the thread. I guess rearranging plans and forgoing some fun activities kind of rubbed me wrong. If we were snowing and accumulating (was supposed to get 3-5 just this afternoon alone) I wouldn't have minded, but now it seems it was for nothing.

[pasnownut]

11 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Im trying to understand why people always defend the models I dont question your right to be here. I have every right to be here I dont attack any one like ive been attacked by some. I go after how bad the models are over the years and say we deserve better. no one can ever give me a honest answer how accurate the models are. the only helpful reply I once got is they dont really track or have a website for that.

With all due respect you won’t find that answer here, so stop wasting your time. As you can see, This is a fun hobby for most of us. We get your frustration, but sharing it time and time again is old. If you enjoy weather then hang out and have fun sharing your thoughts and ideas. Otherwise…Just stop

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

It continues to snow here. The fading sun and heavier rate of precip has allowed for accumulation to continue. Eyeballing maybe 4". 

Congrats. Just flipped here. No stickage yet but hoping that changes soon. 
we have ground to cover….and fast. 

[pasnownut]

For those who can’t get enough of this sport….go look at nooner Euro. 

we ain’t done yet Blizz  

 

 

[lazywxwatcher]

Trasitioned to moderate blowing snow in Lancaster.  Temp fell quickly from 37 to 34, and falling.  Pivot will determine the outcome here.  

[mahantango#1]

Temp dropped almost 2 degrees the past hour. Down to 35.2 now just waiting on the rain  to change to snow. .23 precipitation today. Most of that was 97% rain.

[Superstorm]

For those who can’t get enough of this sport….go look at nooner Euro. 

we ain’t done yet Blizz  
 
 

Lots of opportunities


.

[AccuChris]

After hours of light drizzle and a temp up to 37, down to 35 here in Lebanon and a steady light snow has commenced. Whatever this storm is going to do for Lebanon Count starts now until it shuts down tomorrow AM. We will score it up then


.

[Blizzard of 93]

18z High res short range Canadian HRDPS has the inverted trough band right in the west shore of Harrisburg really close to RT. 15

It shows 5 inches for Harrisburg by tomorrow morning.

[Ruin]

31 minutes ago, Blizzard92 said:

As much as I want the snow too, it is fairly interesting and rare to see this set-up where the LSV is one of the only locations still reporting rain (with snow now falling in all surrounding directions)... reflected in the station mesonet too for temperatures still in the upper 30s here.

it happens 9 times out of 10 the wrong way and 1 time out of 10 right way

[pasnownut]

25 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

It continues to snow here. The fading sun and heavier rate of precip has allowed for accumulation to continue. Eyeballing maybe 4". 

Ground just starting to cave here. Steady snow. Yay