Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

0z here we come.  Who's with me!?

I'm here. Despite my wife's misgivings...

[canderson]

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Just realized that WGAL is still calling for just 2-5".

CTP has me at 2-5” too

[Mount Joy Snowman]

CTP getting aggressive with that Lanc Co cutoff, as we've seen simulated so often.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

HRRR through the afternoon tomorrow with much less precip and more rain influence.  Not that there was much snow accumulation by that point anyway but something to monitor.  Probably just pushing everything back timewise.  We'll see.

[AMDEW80]

Not expecting too much up this way, but it has been a fun week of modeling! I hope we get an unexpected tuck and the whole forum over performs.  So much potential… but seems to be wide right at this point for a big one.  (For central/northern pa).  Everyone enjoy! 

[CarlislePaWx]

12 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

HRRR through the afternoon tomorrow with much less precip and more rain influence.  Not that there was much snow accumulation by that point anyway but something to monitor.  Probably just pushing everything back timewise.  We'll see.

At hour 30 which is 06z or 1:00am the HRRR has given me 0.46" of qpf with only 2.7" of snow.

[Itstrainingtime]

27 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

CTP getting aggressive with that Lanc Co cutoff, as we've seen simulated so often.

4 different contours in our county alone.

[AccuChris]

Still going at noon Monday per latest HRRR


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[Mount Joy Snowman]

4 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

At hour 30 which is 06z or 1:00am the HRRR has given me 0.46" of qpf with only 2.7" of snow.

Yep.  Mainly just delayed for my area though.  Totals roughly the same, still large.  That cutoff from here to Harrisburg is something else though and Carlisle is likely on the outside looking in but could cash in on the trough.  So much uncertainty across the LSV, makes it fun or miserable depending on your perspective haha.

[GrandmasterB]

4 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

At hour 30 which is 06z or 1:00am the HRRR has given me 0.46" of qpf with only 2.7" of snow.

During the day tomorrow any light or moderate precip not from the IVT or heavy coastal influence will be difficult to accumulate on roads. We really need to be under the slim IVT, the heavier coastal precip, or precip at night to accumulate. That’s been pretty well modeled and outlined by NWS and others. 

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP needs to update their grids & Expected snowfall maps to match the ongoing Warnings.

I have heard that they are 100% computer generated, but my goodness for the sake of minimizing confusion, a little human editing would be helpful!

[Blizzard of 93]

I am not worried about temperatures tomorrow whatsoever.

MDT is as of 8 pm at 34 with a dew point of 30.

My Marysville yard station is at 34 with a dew of 28.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

I must admit I was not expecting to be at 36 right now.  One thing that seems to be coming clearer is that this is likely to extend well into Monday morning and perhaps even start a bit later as far as snow in earnest.  Can't see how the schools don't have off Monday.  HRRR snowfall below.  It's NAM time.

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

CTP needs to update their grids & Expected snowfall maps to match the ongoing Warnings.

I have heard that they are 100% computer generated, but my goodness for the sake of minimizing confusion, a little human editing would be helpful!

My forecast is 6-12" and grid is 4-7".

I think concerns about temps tomorrow is very warranted. It's late February and not early January. Unless it's ripping it will not do a lot during the middle of the day even at 32.

[AccuChris]

HRRR overall still looks great


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[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My forecast is 6-12" and grid is 4-7".

I think concerns about temps tomorrow is very warranted. It's late February and not early January. Unless it's ripping it will not do a lot during the middle of the day even at 32.

It also not March or April.

Moderate rates near 32 will get the job done except in urban heat islands.

[Itstrainingtime]

MU just released a full discussion. He admits he is low balling most other forecasts but defends his reasoning in a fair way I believe. He also said this is the most difficult forecast in his career and his bust potential is high but he's riding on what he feels will happen. Used several analogs and pattern recognition to make his forecast.

[Blizzard of 93]

@MillvilleWx

Could you please post that “Model ratio” 0z HRRR map for the CTP regional view. I’m curious to see the difference vs. Kuchera.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It also not March or April.

Moderate rates near 32 will get the job done except in urban heat islands.

True. But we might be in the mid 30s which is different.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

True. But we might be in the mid 30s which is different.

I don’t think we will be with a developing coastal & ongoing precip in my opinion.

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@MillvilleWx

Could you please post that “Model ratio” 0z HRRR map for the CTP regional view. I’m curious to see the difference vs. Kuchera.

For your viewing pleasure!! 

 

Should be a great storm for many in here. I hope y’all get hammered with the goods!! Will check in tomorrow  

[Itstrainingtime]

Great writeup on the WPC page. Truly.

[canderson]

12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Great writeup on the WPC page. Truly.

Mind linking? 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

The NAM again has the entire state of New Jersey over two feet and some central parts above three feet.  Looking more and more like our heaviest snows will come during the predawn hours and even perhaps into early Monday morning.  The extreme cutoff between MDT and LNS remains rock solid at damn near a foot difference.  What a storm we're in for. 

[mahantango#1]

Down to 27 here.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The NAM again has the entire state of New Jersey over two feet and some central parts above three feet.  Looking more and more like our heaviest snows will come during the predawn hours and even perhaps into early Monday morning.  The extreme cutoff between MDT and LNS remains rock solid at damn near a foot difference.  What a storm we're in for. 

Looks like an even tighter gradient as well. Despite the bomb those of us on the western fringe lost some off our totals.

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Mind linking? 

I would if I could. @MillvilleWxactually wrote it!

[MillvilleWx]

19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Great writeup on the WPC page. Truly.

 

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

Mind linking? 

 

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I would if I could. @MillvilleWxactually wrote it!

Here you go!! 
 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

[AccuChris]

0z 3km NAM looks very much like the HRRR. Id say if you are southeast of 81/83, good chance of hitting 10” or more as hard to best those models being aligned well at this point


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[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, AccuChris said:

0z 3km NAM looks very much like the HRRR. Id say if you are southeast of 81/83, good chance of hitting 10” or more as hard to best those models being aligned well at this point


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Here’s the 3k NAM close up for CTP