pasnownut Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 5 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 12z AI GFS QPF ticked west again . was just looking it over. SLP also came a bit W of 6z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 7 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 12z AI GFS QPF ticked west again . Yeah, AI was a good bit juicer with the qpf. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 8 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 12z AI GFS QPF ticked west again . based on SLP track, one could argue that qpf depicted above is a bit underdone for skook n points NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago MU take:. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago goalposts narrowed a bit, but subtle changes can make big differences for our W vs E sub members. Still need to watch NS and how it dives in. Need that to hold and not fold (some nooners less neg tilt, and some were a touch better). Root for earlier interaction to keep trough neg so this thing can come up and not up/out. Based on progressive trough theme of this winter, its a worry of mine, but fortunately we are getting close enough that big surprises are starting to wane a bit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 12z Euro AI continues to slowly improve as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 12z Euro Op continues to improve. Not all the way to GFS land but everyone takes another step closer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 hours ago, Superstorm said: MU take: . I called him a whiny bitch on Twitter last night after he gave a snarky, shithead response to another hack, Mark Margavage. I have yet to see if MU responded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: goalposts narrowed a bit, but subtle changes can make big differences for our W vs E sub members. Still need to watch NS and how it dives in. Need that to hold and not fold (some nooners less neg tilt, and some were a touch better). Root for earlier interaction to keep trough neg so this thing can come up and not up/out. Based on progressive trough theme of this winter, its a worry of mine, but fortunately we are getting close enough that big surprises are starting to wane a bit. euro AI joins the sharper trough team and looks better. Another +1 for team snowhounds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago and the Euro as per Accuchris. likin the trends. Lets hope we can continue this for a couple more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 140 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 PAZ057>059-064>066-211145- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/ Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Pottsville, Hershey, Harrisburg, York, Lancaster, Lebanon, and Gettysburg 140 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 6 inches possible. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There is still some uncertainty regarding the track of this storm. Any westward shifts in the track may result in higher snowfall amounts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsauss Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago no snow for me and @Blizzard of 93 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 hours ago, pawatch said: 39 degrees and rain. Not much rain overnight .21” Appears first line of storms last night was a big miss. Hows the rivers and the ice? Anybody having any problems yet? Models are being the models again. You think in this day and age there would be more consistent models…terrible! I saw videos earlier today of the ice on the move on the West Branch at Renovo. https://www.facebook.com/nova1962/videos/818644964578280/?idorvanity=105222725398 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The precip shield on the NAM at 51 is quite impressive. Snow back to Pittsburgh and State College. Not really close to the Euro in terms of precip shield west of Philly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18z NAM continues to adjust towards a very impressive system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Simply amazing…971mb bomb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago That is beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago At some point soon something’s gotta give with this US vs non US guidance in terms of the top end potential. GFS and NAM totals would be an all-time snow event for the Delmarva and at least a top 10 type event for NJ and NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago NAM is blizzard Delaware/eastern shore and PHL to SE MASS.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted 58 minutes ago Share Posted 58 minutes ago ICON is heavier, wester vs. 12Z. Love to see it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted 54 minutes ago Share Posted 54 minutes ago 3 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: ICON is heavier, wester vs. 12Z. Love to see it. Haha, goes nuclear just east of OC, MD! OMG this might be happening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted 52 minutes ago Share Posted 52 minutes ago Precip on the ICON is not far off from the insane totals of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 49 minutes ago Share Posted 49 minutes ago Gonna be a windy-ass storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 17 minutes ago Share Posted 17 minutes ago 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: At some point soon something’s gotta give with this US vs non US guidance in terms of the top end potential. GFS and NAM totals would be an all-time snow event for the Delmarva and at least a top 10 type event for NJ and NYC. GFS tryin to stay lead dog and makin HH a bit happier. WOOF Nicely tucked and a bit further W. I agree that we are runnin outta room, but little wiggles like this are still going to happen, and this one is totally fine by me. GFS....I'm impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 12 minutes ago Share Posted 12 minutes ago GFS at 10:1 brings the hammer with a 24" between me and Chesco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted 12 minutes ago Share Posted 12 minutes ago 18z GFS is steady eddie…amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 11 minutes ago Share Posted 11 minutes ago 45 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Precip on the ICON is not far off from the insane totals of the NAM since you can do the pic thingy, pull hr 78 on GFS clown map...please n thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted 11 minutes ago Share Posted 11 minutes ago We take! Very sharp cutoff.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 9 minutes ago Share Posted 9 minutes ago 6 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 18z GFS is steady eddie…amazing . It really is impressive, and while I know some will troll me for sayin it, I'm glad the GFS may get one, as it just adds an extra layer of WTF for modelwatchin, cause now we have to consider it once again. If it sees this across the line, I will not use GooFuS for the rest of the season, no matter how good or bad it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted 9 minutes ago Share Posted 9 minutes ago That cut off is BRUTAL Yikes… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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