Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

12z AI GFS QPF ticked west again


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was just looking it over.  SLP also came a bit W of 6z.  

[Mount Joy Snowman]

7 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

12z AI GFS QPF ticked west again


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Yeah, AI was a good bit juicer with the qpf.

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

12z AI GFS QPF ticked west again


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based on SLP track, one could argue that qpf depicted above is a bit underdone for skook n points NE.

[Superstorm]

MU take:




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[pasnownut]

goalposts narrowed a bit, but subtle changes can make big differences for our W vs E sub members.  Still need to watch NS and how it dives in.  Need that to hold and not fold (some nooners less neg tilt, and some were a touch better).  Root for earlier interaction to keep trough neg so this thing can come up and not up/out. 

Based on progressive trough theme of this winter, its a worry of mine, but fortunately we are getting close enough that big surprises are starting to wane a bit.  

[AccuChris]

12z Euro AI continues to slowly improve as well


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[AccuChris]

12z Euro Op continues to improve. Not all the way to GFS land but everyone takes another step closer


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[WmsptWx]

2 hours ago, Superstorm said:

MU take:




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I called him a whiny bitch on Twitter last night after he gave a snarky, shithead response to another hack, Mark Margavage. I have yet to see if MU responded.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

goalposts narrowed a bit, but subtle changes can make big differences for our W vs E sub members.  Still need to watch NS and how it dives in.  Need that to hold and not fold (some nooners less neg tilt, and some were a touch better).  Root for earlier interaction to keep trough neg so this thing can come up and not up/out. 

Based on progressive trough theme of this winter, its a worry of mine, but fortunately we are getting close enough that big surprises are starting to wane a bit.  

euro AI joins the sharper trough team and looks better. 

 

Another +1 for team snowhounds

[pasnownut]

and the Euro as per Accuchris. 

 

likin the trends.  Lets hope we can continue this for a couple more runs.  

[mahantango#1]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service State College PA

140 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

 

PAZ057>059-064>066-211145-

/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/

Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster-

Including the cities of Pottsville, Hershey, Harrisburg, York,

Lancaster, Lebanon, and Gettysburg

140 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH

MONDAY AFTERNOON...

 

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and

  6 inches possible.

 

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.

 

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday afternoon.

 

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions

  could impact the Monday morning commute.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There is still some uncertainty regarding the

  track of this storm. Any westward shifts in the track may result

  in higher snowfall amounts.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

 

&&

[Jsauss]

no snow for me and @Blizzard of 93

[MAG5035]

5 hours ago, pawatch said:

39 degrees and rain. Not much rain overnight .21”

Appears first line of storms last night was a big miss.

Hows the rivers and the ice? Anybody having any problems yet?

Models are being the models again. You think in this day and age there would be more consistent models…terrible! 

I saw videos earlier today of the ice on the move on the West Branch at Renovo. 

https://www.facebook.com/nova1962/videos/818644964578280/?idorvanity=105222725398

[GrandmasterB]

The precip shield on the NAM at 51 is quite impressive. Snow back to Pittsburgh and State College. Not really close to the Euro in terms of precip shield west of Philly. 

[AccuChris]

18z NAM continues to adjust towards a very impressive system



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[AccuChris]

Simply amazing…971mb bomb


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[Superstorm]

That is beautiful


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[MAG5035]

At some point soon something’s gotta give with this US vs non US guidance in terms of the top end potential. 

GFS and NAM totals would be an all-time snow event for the Delmarva and at least a top 10 type event for NJ and NYC. 

[Superstorm]

NAM is blizzard Delaware/eastern shore and PHL to SE MASS.


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