Mount Joy Snowman Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago NAM comes around in a big way. Not saying this verifies but man would this come as a surprise to many people. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago NAM comes around in a big way. Not saying this verifies but man would this come as a surprise to many people. Might have to start thinking about advisories. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: NAM comes around in a big way. Not saying this verifies but man would this come as a surprise to many people. Could be an interesting day of model watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago On 2/11/2026 at 9:12 AM, Itstrainingtime said: Okay, if that's true, and I'll take your word for it, then please start at least sharing some positive things to balance your posts out. If anyone would look at your posting history in this thread, it is filled with these words/phrases: "Whiff" (a bunch) Wayyy south (a bunch) Rain (too many) Rainer (this is a new one today) Miss (far too often) That is almost literally your posting history here. How are we to accept you if this is all that you contribute? Today is Mickey’s day to shine! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3k Nam made a big move as well towards the snowier camp. Lots more phasing earlier on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Today is Mickey’s day to shine!Lmbo. To funny!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3k Nam made a big move as well towards the snowier camp. Lots more phasing earlier on. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 21 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Today is Mickey’s day to shine! im trying to stay quiet to watch and learn, i have genuine interest in all this. i enjoy the analysis from the more knowledgeable FOLKS on here. I am also curious why "no snow Flo" got so quiet? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 5 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said: im trying to stay quiet to watch and learn, i have genuine interest in all this. i enjoy the analysis from the more knowledgeable FOLKS on here. I am also curious why "no snow Flo" got so quiet? lol All good. Just busting some chops! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Great to see the NAMs joining the GFS this morning! The last big storm a few weeks ago, the NAMs did well at least with thermals, hopefully they continue & lock in later today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 40 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: NAM comes around in a big way. Not saying this verifies but man would this come as a surprise to many people. Not to me. I said it days ago. Wasnt understanding why this was stuck in the south. NAO lifting out says come north to me, and wasnt adding up for it to drift aimlessly due east. I am surprised it took so long for some majors to latch on, but I'm glad they are. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago RRFS, FV3, and HRW sisters are all on board for a few inches across much of the forum. This is getting interesting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GFS holds steady with a few inches for southern parts of the forum. Slightly less qpf than prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: GFS holds steady with a few inches for southern parts of the forum. Slightly less qpf than prior runs. Yes, solid hold for the 12z GFS and in line with the 12z NAMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Have a colonoscopy at 7 am Monday. I really really really really don’t want any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, canderson said: Have a colonoscopy at 7 am Monday. I really really really really don’t want any snow. The storm doesn’t want you to experience anesthesia, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago What’s the timing on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said: What’s the timing on this? Would likely start as a light rain sometime during the mid afternoon and transition to a steady snow during the evening hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I was gung-ho on tomorrow 10 days ago. Mostly about there being a storm and not necessarily snow. I'm a tad less enthused today. My issue is that we are going to need rates...like at least moderate if not heavy to get things going. Otherwise we're looking at rain followed by essentially white rain. I've seen this scenario play out a lot over the years. We can do this but we better get into good precip... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 19 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: The storm doesn’t want you to experience anesthesia, sorry. I’ll be beyond livid if I deal with tmrw’a prep and no sleep just for some annoying snow that’s melt by noon Monday cancel the appt. Meanwhile curios if someone here hits 50 today. I’m at 44 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I'm sure I'll be frowned upon. We don't have a good air mass. It's not like a March day when it's 55 but there's a NW wind cranking a fresh supply of colder air. What we have is stale. We can make stale work and night will help some but we need dynamics. GFS was a red flag to me. Less QPF is not our friend right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I was gung-ho on tomorrow 10 days ago. Mostly about there being a storm and not necessarily snow. I'm a tad less enthused today. My issue is that we are going to need rates...like at least moderate if not heavy to get things going. Otherwise we're looking at rain followed by essentially white rain. I've seen this scenario play out a lot over the years. We can do this but we better get into good precip... Yeah it will take some rates for sure but that's what some of the meso's are showing down our way. You are right though, what's being depicted as snowfall on these maps will surely not amount to that much on the ground with the marginal temps in place. Heck, I was scouring through skew-T's earlier and we really would be walking the tight rope through the lower part of the column, with a wet snow and a surface right around freezing. Could be fun though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm sure I'll be frowned upon. We don't have a good air mass. It's not like a March day when it's 55 but there's a NW wind cranking a fresh supply of colder air. What we have is stale. We can make stale work and night will help some but we need dynamics. GFS was a red flag to me. Less QPF is not our friend right now. I don’t disagree, but the current solution as modeled is better than the precip missing us to the south by 300 miles. At least we have a shot with the precip now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Agreed, if we get moderate rates, we will snow tomorrow evening. The track is ideal to work with a marginal air mass at this time of year. There is not a primary low tracking toward northern WV this time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 57 minutes ago Share Posted 57 minutes ago 5 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: I don’t disagree, but the current solution as modeled is better than the precip missing us to the south by 300 miles. At least we have a shot with the precip now. Absolutely! And that's why I am hopeful if not a bit skeptical. We can pull this off for sure. We just need a little more than we have needed for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 55 minutes ago Share Posted 55 minutes ago 8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yeah it will take some rates for sure but that's what some of the meso's are showing down our way. You are right though, what's being depicted as snowfall on these maps will surely not amount to that much on the ground with the marginal temps in place. Heck, I was scouring through skew-T's earlier and we really would be walking the tight rope through the lower part of the column, with a wet snow and a surface right around freezing. Could be fun though. Tight rope is a good term for this. Very much so. Or the proverbial thread the needle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 35 minutes ago Share Posted 35 minutes ago For the LSV area, the precip difference between 12z & 6z on the GFS was mostly noise level. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted 30 minutes ago Share Posted 30 minutes ago 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: For the LSV area, the precip difference between 12z & 6z on the GFS was mostly noise level. I thought 500 was a bit improved with a faster phase, but as you show the surface was about the same really. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 28 minutes ago Share Posted 28 minutes ago 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: For the LSV area, the precip difference between 12z & 6z on the GFS was mostly noise level. Lol, I just realized that he 12z GFS precip map put a “blue” area of .50 precip right over ITT & MJS ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 21 minutes ago Share Posted 21 minutes ago 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, I just realized that he 12z GFS precip map put a “blue” area of .50 precip right over ITT & MJS ! It's actually 2/10s of a mile south of me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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