paweather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: early on 3k notably better. Hoping for every panel of blue I can get for lanco. Your still blue at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 7pm Sunday SCPA is mixing with sleet. I still think it is too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 By 7pm NAM has sleet line up into Northumberland County, extreme southern tier is taint from 1pm on. Holding the line for itself ha. I'll give it until 0z to course correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 The NAM drives the primary up to almost Pittsburgh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Still we will makeout on accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, paweather said: Still we will makeout on accums It's a substantial drop from 12z but it's also likely wrong haha. If not.....whew boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 18z NAM appears to be the warmest yet. Sleet line up to I-80 and even at H60 is has sleet even into Boston. Seems like a warm outlier but cannot be ignored either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 FWIW Notable differences at 42 wrt SLP placement. Like 500 miles off. One needs tossed. Can I pick which one? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: It's a substantial drop from 12z but it's also likely wrong haha. If not.....whew boy. Yeah would like to get snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Latest RRFS also throws the sleet well up into PA unlike its 12z run and reduces totals accordingly. Not buying any of this yet but man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, paweather said: Yeah would like to get snow map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 primary once again trying to stick its nose where it doesnt belong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 You know it's interesting, the NAM run was looking colder and slightly better at all levels during the early part of the run when it's in its prime range but then kind of fell apart later in the run in ways that didn't make sense. I'm not buying it and think by 12z tomorrow it mostly looks like the others. We hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Let’s see what the GFS says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: You know it's interesting, the NAM run was looking colder and slightly better at all levels during the early part of the run when it's in its prime range but then kind of fell apart later in the run in ways that didn't make sense. I'm not buying it and think by 12z tomorrow it mostly looks like the others. We hope. I hope so too but we've been burned by NAM thermals leading the way before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Mod/Heavy precip=Snow light Precip=Ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3k not bad and maybe a tad better gang. I say we toss the 12... 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Mod/Heavy precip=Snow light Precip=Ice Very good point Pa.. column cools when rippin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: You know it's interesting, the NAM run was looking colder and slightly better at all levels during the early part of the run when it's in its prime range but then kind of fell apart later in the run in ways that didn't make sense. I'm not buying it and think by 12z tomorrow it mostly looks like the others. We hope. Just the nam being the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 14 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 24 minutes ago, paweather said: 7pm Sunday SCPA is mixing with sleet. I still think it is too warm I still dont buy that this is a fresh injection of arctic.Air the highs holding firm up north and it's supplying enough cold air.I think it's a warm bias 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: I hope so too but we've been burned by NAM thermals leading the way before. We sure have, which is why I never totally rule it out, but it had panels where it was literally showing the thermals colder and further south on all levels yet showing the sleet line further north. Bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 14 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: You know it's interesting, the NAM run was looking colder and slightly better at all levels during the early part of the run when it's in its prime range but then kind of fell apart later in the run in ways that didn't make sense. I'm not buying it and think by 12z tomorrow it mostly looks like the others. We hope. early on both looked better, then 12k shit the bed and 3k was rather similar to nooner. qpf a little less on both though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 NAM is better within 42 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 18z ICON slightly north with the mixing as well, but only a marginal reduction in totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 RDPS slightly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 15 minutes ago, Ruin said: I still dont buy that this is a fresh injection of arctic.Air the highs holding firm up north and it's supplying enough cold air.I think it's a warm bias For the love of both Jesus and South Beach, please stop. You have said this 42 times today and now you're pissing off the MA thread. Warm. Air. Aloft. > Fresh. Arctic. Air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: For the love of both Jesus and South Beach, please stop. You have said this 42 times today and now you're pissing off the MA thread. Warm. Air. Aloft. > Fresh. Arctic. Air. Thanks Training happy beach days for you and family! Miami is a great place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
717WeatherLover Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 37 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: For the love of both Jesus and South Beach, please stop. You have said this 42 times today and now you're pissing off the MA thread. Warm. Air. Aloft. > Fresh. Arctic. Air. Living up to your "handle", still training! Enjoy the south! I will NEVER live in Miami again after losing a house due to Andrew! That being said, it is a great place to experience multiple cultures and cuisines! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 GFS vs. the NAM boys who we takin'?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 Now that this is finally into 3k NAM range we can have a look at the sounding to see what we’re dealing with in terms of warm air intrusion aloft. Sounding for LNS (Lancaster) at hour 56 As you can see, the warm air intrusion is pretty high, situated between the 850mb and 700mb layer. That’s why at first glance the 850 and 700 mb temp maps might look okay for an all snow column. Could it be too aggressive with the WAA at that level? Sure, but I’ll forewarn that this was the exact situation that sunk the significant snow in a lot of NE PA back on 12/26. NAM was about the only thing that caught that. And it doesn’t matter how cold it is at the surface. When you melt a falling a snowflake it doesn’t turn back into a snowflake when it refreezes. This is a different storm setup to be sure, and again.. there will be significant snows before any mixing where it happens. And sleet will be the predominant mix type given strength and depth of the arctic air mass. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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