Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[paweather]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

early on 3k notably better.  Hoping for every panel of blue I can get for lanco. 

Your still blue at 18z

[paweather]

7pm Sunday SCPA is mixing with sleet. I still think it is too warm

[Mount Joy Snowman]

By 7pm NAM has sleet line up into Northumberland County, extreme southern tier is taint from 1pm on.  Holding the line for itself ha. I'll give it until 0z to course correct. 

[paweather]

The NAM drives the primary up to almost Pittsburgh?

[paweather]

Still we will makeout on accums 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

Still we will makeout on accums 

It's a substantial drop from 12z but it's also likely wrong haha.  If not.....whew boy.

[AccuChris]

18z NAM appears to be the warmest yet. Sleet line up to I-80 and even at H60 is has sleet even into Boston. Seems like a warm outlier but cannot be ignored either


.

[pasnownut]

FWIW Notable differences at 42 wrt SLP placement.  Like 500 miles off.  One needs tossed.  Can I pick which one?  

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

It's a substantial drop from 12z but it's also likely wrong haha.  If not.....whew boy.

Yeah would like to get snow map

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Latest RRFS also throws the sleet well up into PA unlike its 12z run and reduces totals accordingly.  Not buying any of this yet but man.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

Yeah would like to get snow map

[pasnownut]

primary once again trying to stick its nose where it doesnt belong

[Mount Joy Snowman]

You know it's interesting, the NAM run was looking colder and slightly better at all levels during the early part of the run when it's in its prime range but then kind of fell apart later in the run in ways that didn't make sense.  I'm not buying it and think by 12z tomorrow it mostly looks like the others.  We hope.

[paweather]

Let’s see what the GFS says

[GrandmasterB]

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

You know it's interesting, the NAM run was looking colder and slightly better at all levels during the early part of the run when it's in its prime range but then kind of fell apart later in the run in ways that didn't make sense.  I'm not buying it and think by 12z tomorrow it mostly looks like the others.  We hope.

I hope so too but we've been burned by NAM thermals leading the way before.

[paweather]

Mod/Heavy precip=Snow

light Precip=Ice

[pasnownut]

3k not bad and maybe a tad better gang.  

I say we toss the 12...

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Mod/Heavy precip=Snow

light Precip=Ice

Very good point Pa..

column cools when rippin

[Ruin]

9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

You know it's interesting, the NAM run was looking colder and slightly better at all levels during the early part of the run when it's in its prime range but then kind of fell apart later in the run in ways that didn't make sense.  I'm not buying it and think by 12z tomorrow it mostly looks like the others.  We hope.

Just the nam being the nam

[paweather]

14 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Thanks!

[Ruin]

24 minutes ago, paweather said:

7pm Sunday SCPA is mixing with sleet. I still think it is too warm

I still dont buy that this is a fresh injection of arctic.Air the highs holding firm up north and it's supplying enough cold air.I think it's a warm bias

[Mount Joy Snowman]

6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I hope so too but we've been burned by NAM thermals leading the way before.

We sure have, which is why I never totally rule it out, but it had panels where it was literally showing the thermals colder and further south on all levels yet showing the sleet line further north.  Bizarre.

[pasnownut]

14 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

You know it's interesting, the NAM run was looking colder and slightly better at all levels during the early part of the run when it's in its prime range but then kind of fell apart later in the run in ways that didn't make sense.  I'm not buying it and think by 12z tomorrow it mostly looks like the others.  We hope.

early on both looked better, then 12k shit the bed and 3k was rather similar to nooner.  qpf a little less on both though. 

[paweather]

NAM is better within 42 hours lol

[Mount Joy Snowman]

18z ICON slightly north with the mixing as well, but only a marginal reduction in totals.

[Superstorm]

RDPS slightly south


.

[Itstrainingtime]

15 minutes ago, Ruin said:

I still dont buy that this is a fresh injection of arctic.Air the highs holding firm up north and it's supplying enough cold air.I think it's a warm bias

For the love of both Jesus and South Beach, please stop. You have said this 42 times today and now you're pissing off the MA thread.

Warm. Air. Aloft. > Fresh. Arctic. Air.

[paweather]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

For the love of both Jesus and South Beach, please stop. You have said this 42 times today and now you're pissing off the MA thread.

Warm. Air. Aloft. > Fresh. Arctic. Air.

Thanks Training happy beach days for you and family! Miami is a great place. 

[717WeatherLover]

37 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

For the love of both Jesus and South Beach, please stop. You have said this 42 times today and now you're pissing off the MA thread.

Warm. Air. Aloft. > Fresh. Arctic. Air.

Living up to your "handle", still training!  Enjoy the south!  I will NEVER live in Miami again after losing a house due to Andrew! That being said, it is a great place to experience multiple cultures and cuisines! 

[GrandmasterB]

GFS vs. the NAM boys who we takin'??

[MAG5035]

Now that this is finally into 3k NAM range we can have a look at the sounding to see what we’re dealing with in terms of warm air intrusion aloft. 

Sounding for LNS (Lancaster) at hour 56

As you can see, the warm air intrusion is pretty high, situated between the 850mb and 700mb layer. That’s why at first glance the 850 and 700 mb temp maps might look okay for an all snow column. Could it be too aggressive with the WAA at that level? Sure, but I’ll forewarn that this was the exact situation that sunk the significant snow in a lot of NE PA back on 12/26. NAM was about the only thing that caught that. And it doesn’t matter how cold it is at the surface. When you melt a falling a snowflake it doesn’t turn back into a snowflake when it refreezes. 

This is a different storm setup to be sure, and again.. there will be significant snows before any mixing where it happens. And sleet will be the predominant mix type given strength and depth of the arctic air mass.