Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[AccuChris]

Lock it in lol


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[paweather]

[pasnownut]

30 hr event on GFS.  Just beautiful

[Eskimo Joe]

@paweather - any chance you can post the "traditional" 10:1 maps for the 12z GFS?

[paweather]

[GrandmasterB]

Going off of that GFS progression I would expect snow amounts to be higher, honestly. Just lock that solution please and thank you. 

[pasnownut]

Just now, GrandmasterB said:

Going off of that GFS progression I would expect snow amounts to be higher, honestly. Just lock that solution please and thank you. 

qpf field ticked north, and that was all i was looking for from the souther outlier.  Nice runs with subtle (but good) moves so far.  Starting to feel it.

[canderson]

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

Epic, epic epic ice storm back home if this happens. 

[paweather]

CMC drives the L into West Virginia increasing the amount of ice in PA but still a front end thump probably wrong 

[pasnownut]

Just now, paweather said:

CMC drives the L into West Virginia increasing the amount of ice in PA but still a front end thump probably wrong 

yep at 102 it pops, but I'd think a quick transfer incoming (if this solution makes any sense)

 

[GrandmasterB]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

yep at 102 it pops, but I'd think a quick transfer incoming (if this solution makes any sense)

 

Appears the trend has been to amp the storm earlier, now we need to root for a GFS like transfer south of our latitude. Primary into Pittsburgh is guaranteed sleet for us southern folks. 

[pasnownut]

CMC solution is not what i expected.  Still a great event, but not as clean.  Sharper trough axis it shows is likely culprit.  CAD is strong on ALL models, so I'd think if this would verify, itd be sleet below MD line

 

Huhh

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said:

Appears the trend has been to amp the storm earlier, now we need to root for a GFS like transfer south of our latitude. Primary into Pittsburgh is guaranteed sleet for us southern folks. 

and based on qpf, sleet on top....no bueno for power concerns shared by some earlier.  

[pasnownut]

Verbatim CMC is a step back for southern PA, but central/northers highly approve. 

[pasnownut]

primary held onto 114 and screwed my pooch.  

[sauss06]

hasn't most of our epic storms included sleet during the event at some point? 

[pasnownut]

togglin between majors, CMC trough axis notably more neutral tilt, and others more pos/progressive.  

[Superstorm]

Verbatim CMC is a step back for southern PA, but central/northers highly approve. 

And it would still be 8 to 12 followed by sleet in a fail scenario.


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[Superstorm]

25 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

30 hr event on GFS.  Just beautiful

I guess the latest model gets the most attention.  You would have thought the GFS would have been a downer based on comments.  Instead it is absolutely beautiful.

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

And it would still be 8 to 12 followed by sleet in a fail scenario.


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the more dig on backside down in Texas early on is the culprit, and imo we need to root for that not to happen, and keep this a little more progressive for a clean event.  Otherwise, taint word gets tossed in 

[AccuChris]

12z GFS says “I see this weekends storm and raise you a blizzard the following weekend”


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[pasnownut]

Just now, Superstorm said:

I guess the latest model gets the most attention.  You would have thought the GFS would have been a downer based on comments.  Instead it is absolutely beautiful.

Yep, I'm glad to see it came around.  GFS/Icon look just fine.  CMC a little less fine, but still as you state a great event.  

my worry is that we are still 72+ out and many outcomes gooder or badder are possible.  Based on 700's you can easily see what the CMC was doing as it pops the primary and holds it too long.  GFS doesnt show that. Icon also keeps a cleaner look w/ SLP well south.

[pasnownut]

Just now, AccuChris said:

12z GFS says “I see this weekends storm and raise you a blizzard the following weekend”


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lol

I also saw that, and chuckled.  

[Eskimo Joe]

Now THAT is a legitimate blizzard.

3 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

12z GFS says “I see this weekends storm and raise you a blizzard the following weekend”
 

 

[paweather]

12z UKIE puts the hammer down

[canderson]

17 minutes ago, paweather said:

12z UKIE puts the hammer down

It’s a religious experience. 

[GrandmasterB]

This won’t be a popular opinion, but I prefer yesterday’s modeling that had mostly over-running from the less phased solutions. On the northern edge of those solutions we didn’t have the max QPF but excellent ratios where .7 QPF is 10” of powder. Plus, we could afford some north trends. Now we are playing with literal fire from these amped solutions taking the primary into Pitt. All of the Miller B downsides now apply…WAA can surge well ahead of the precip, a transfer directly over us can rob moisture, the dreaded dry slot, all of the Miller B failure routes.  AND we’re still 72+ hours out!

Ok, that’s my only Deb post for today! Let’s get a Hatteras transfer on the Euro! 

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

This won’t be a popular opinion, but I prefer yesterday’s modeling that had mostly over-running from the less phased solutions. On the northern edge of those solutions we didn’t have the max QPF but excellent ratios where .7 QPF is 10” of powder. Plus, we could afford some north trends. Now we are playing with literal fire from these amped solutions taking the primary into Pitt. All of the Miller B downsides now apply…WAA can surge well ahead of the precip, a transfer directly over us can rob moisture, the dreaded dry slot, all of the Miller B failure routes.  AND we’re still 72+ hours out!

Ok, that’s my only Deb post for today! Let’s get a Hatteras transfer on the Euro! 

@Eskimo Joe makes a great point about the CMC not being viable because it has the L running directly into and crushing the H 

[Itstrainingtime]

Don't read MU's thoughts. At least if you want a snowstorm at home.

[pasnownut]

12 minutes ago, canderson said:

@Eskimo Joe makes a great point about the CMC not being viable because it has the L running directly into and crushing the H 

thats what my hope is and why I shared the 700's as they show primary pressing right up into wva.  it was also evident to a lesser degree on 0z run for CMC, so lets hope its not onto something.  700/850's look fine w/ critical thickness well S of M/D line.  CAD feauture also very evident, so IF there was some credence to this solution, I'd think taint in in our hood would be sleet and no ice.