Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[GrandmasterB]

This is what I was nervous about before the 12Z runs and both the GFS and more so the Canadian both moved this sharp cutoff northeast:

 

 

[GrandmasterB]

Canadian

[Jns2183]

5 years ago today it was 66, we had severe storms ripping across the state dropping 1.5"-2" of rain.

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[Blizzard of 93]

8 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

5 years ago today it was 66, we had severe storms ripping across the state dropping 1.5"-2" of rain.

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That was a little over a week after many of us got around 10 inches of snow that got wiped out by the storm you are referencing.

[ChescoWx]

While we will not have a White Christmas we did have 2 of what we here at ChescoWx call Christmas Season Snows during the present holiday season. Christmas Season Snow represents measurable snow events during the 12 days of Christmas. Based on historical data this occurs here in Chester County on average 2 of every 3 years or 66% of seasons. Below are all of the stats regarding White Christmas chances here in Chester County from 1893 through 2025.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, GrandmasterB said:

This is what I was nervous about before the 12Z runs and both the GFS and more so the Canadian both moved this sharp cutoff northeast:

 

 

While it is a tad concerning, based on SLP being a tick S of 6z when the goods are in the hood, i'd not worry too much.  qpf distribution is driven more by SLP placement and going to weeble wooble a bit.  IF the future runs do the norther shift, then you n I need to worry more.  

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, GrandmasterB said:

Canadian

mb

could also be byproduct of being SE of them there mtns and not having the forcing mechanism as it is only a 1005-8 mb slp, so qpf might not be crazy without good forcing down here in the perverbial jip zone.  I'm still rooting on the weaker option so that whatever falls has less WAA to worry about.  

[Itstrainingtime]

FWIW - MU is also on team sleet. Coating to 2" for most.

[Summit Snow]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
119 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

NYZ025-044-045-055>057-062-PAZ039-040-044-048-072-250630-
/O.NEW.KBGM.WS.A.0013.251226T1800Z-251227T1700Z/
Tompkins-Cortland-Chenango-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-
Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Lackawanna-Pike-Southern Wayne-
Including the cities of Owego, Honesdale, Norwich, Waverly,
Hallstead, Equinunk, Delhi, Milford, Binghamton, Damascus,
Cortland, Ithaca, Montrose, Scranton, Walton, and Monticello
119 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 5 and
  10 inches possible.

* WHERE...In New York, Broome, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware,
  Sullivan, Tioga, and Tompkins Counties. In Pennsylvania,
  Lackawanna, Northern Wayne, Pike, Southern Wayne, and Susquehanna
  Counties.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Friday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.