E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Newman]

Have not been keeping up with this storm threat but might start doing so now that family is asking all about it ha. That 6z AIFS run is near mint perfection. Like Ralph said, a quick glance at the upper levels and you can tell the fail mode here is a slip east

[Heisy]

Have not been keeping up with this storm threat but might start doing so now that family is asking all about it ha. That 6z AIFS run is near mint perfection. Like Ralph said, a quick glance at the upper levels and you can tell the fail mode here is a slip east

I’m more worried about tucking and a NE/interior event. Models sometimes underplay strengths of shortwaves headed from Colorado region. On the plus side the 50/50 is timed absolutely perfectly. I’m still at the “what could go wrong” stage. This is why we play the game though ha.

Cautiously extremely excited, those 6z ai runs were pure porn

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 hours ago, Heisy said:

Ha over on discord I said the H5 sort of reminded me of Jan 31-Feb 1 2021. Idk what it was, some of the model runs had the same look to them as that one. Someone on Philly discord posted the H5 and it’s almost a perfect match

My top analog is 2/26/2010. Feels like a last hurrah (after a brief warm-up), and I think this will miss just north, with NYC having a historic snowstorm, while PHL gets 4-6 inches, and BWI/DCA gets close to nothing, as the winter is pretty much over in those cities.

[Violentweatherfan]

The MJO is gonna be in phase 3/4 by this storm period. I’d temper the excitement and brace for a model change 

[MickeyTim6533]

15 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

My top analog is 2/26/2010. Feels like a last hurrah (after a brief warm-up), and I think this will miss just north, with NYC having a historic snowstorm, while PHL gets 4-6 inches, and BWI/DCA gets close to nothing, as the winter is pretty much over in those cities.

[The Iceman]

3 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

The MJO is gonna be in phase 3/4 by this storm period. I’d temper the excitement and brace for a model change 

MJO has a lag effect fyi

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

The MJO is gonna be in phase 3/4 by this storm period. I’d temper the excitement and brace for a model change 

Phase 3 is still cold in late February. I think exiting 3/entering 4 is the sweet spot for a snow event, though the pattern should change for the warmer after the event.

[ChescoWx]

Fog should burn off later this morning, and we turn much milder with highs well into the 40's our normal high is still in the low 40's. After today there is at least a chance of rain each day with maybe some snow mixing in on Thursday night. Our heaviest rain looks to be on Friday, and we can really use the rain. There will no doubt be rumors of a snowstorm starting next Sunday....but the good news is we don't shovel snow rumors!

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

What do you mean by debbie downer? I was saying 4-6 inches for this area. By the way, here was that snowstorm:

[MickeyTim6533]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

What do you mean by debbie downer? I was saying 4-6 inches for this area. By the way, here was that snowstorm:

just playing around lol

[Newman]

47 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I’m more worried about tucking and a NE/interior event. Models sometimes underplay strengths of shortwaves headed from Colorado region. On the plus side the 50/50 is timed absolutely perfectly. I’m still at the “what could go wrong” stage. This is why we play the game though ha.

Cautiously extremely excited, those 6z ai runs were pure porn

I definitely understand the worry with an interior event, the AI GFS is essentially that. But seeing a pretty clear SE leaning cluster on Euro ensemble guidance tells me that's the most likely fail right now. Outside of the January storm, mid-range guidance has been seemingly too phase happy/amped this winter. I don't want to go against that seasonal trend based on current model guidance.

We're also at that stage where we start to see storm evolutions warp, shift, and change. Probabilistically anything is on the table, and quite equally IMO. Excited for 12z runs as well

[Newman]

ICON starts us off great at 12z, 18-24" from Philly to NYC

[Blue Dream]

32 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

What do you mean by debbie downer? I was saying 4-6 inches for this area. By the way, here was that snowstorm:

That one sucked here...white rain all day and ending in a burst of heavy snow that night if i remember correctly.

[The Iceman]

Well if Newman, Heisy, and Ralph are all excited for 12z runs, fuck it I’m in too 
 

I will add, the track of the primary brings me concern on both the GFS and Euro AI, I know they show snow right now but I think it would be hard for us not to change over to sleet if that track is correct. Icon is a great start to 12z though wow. That’s just about a perfect outcome…

[ChescoWx]

February 2010 - a not too shabby snow month.

[ChescoWx]

I would like to see that northern stream piece dive in just a wee little bit earlier.....

[MickeyTim6533]

right off the coast of OCMD

[ChescoWx]

1005mb to 987mb between 4am and 4pm Sunday.....

[ChescoWx]

12z AI GFS 

 

[anthonyweather]

AIGFS. further east than 6z fwiw


.

[Duca892]

OMFG GFS BOMB 

[Mikeymac5306]

[Duca892]

Again this time time tomorrow we are at or under 100hrs from estimated start.... this is slowly turning into a real thing beyond just trackable... 

[Newman]

GFS just a bit too disjointed with phasing in that NS vort, verbatim it's still a huge hit for coastal Jersey. This 12z run is also completely different with how it handles that southern vort, it's amplitude, speed, etc. But I guess it goes to show that it's not a thread the needle scenario, we can score in different ways, though some locations will be favored depending on the final evolution. 

GFS being SE at this time though is classic, you wouldn't expect anything less. Actually looking at the final GFS solution, it's just a tad too late with fully phasing hence the strongest PVA is offshore and into Jersey -> NYC -> SNE

[Duca892]

I will be honest... I would of thought a more impressive snow output then what the GFS put out there... it is an 8-12in storm for MANY and I would GLADLY take that but i was expecting a BOMB BOMB snow map lol 

[MickeyTim6533]

4 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

I will be honest... I would of thought a more impressive snow output then what the GFS put out there... it is an 8-12in storm for MANY and I would GLADLY take that but i was expecting a BOMB BOMB snow map lol 

bombs too late 

[Newman]

Holy shit CMC!

[Mikeymac5306]

40 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

right off the coast of OCMD

Starts as rain before it bombs out FWIW

[Lucy Pull]

2 minutes ago, Newman said:

Holy shit CMC!

Don’t think you could draw it up much better. 

[LVblizzard]

2 minutes ago, Newman said:

Holy shit CMC!

Snow map is absolutely bonkers. This would exceed 1996 and rival 2016 in the Lehigh Valley.