E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Newman]

Have not been keeping up with this storm threat but might start doing so now that family is asking all about it ha. That 6z AIFS run is near mint perfection. Like Ralph said, a quick glance at the upper levels and you can tell the fail mode here is a slip east

[Heisy]

Have not been keeping up with this storm threat but might start doing so now that family is asking all about it ha. That 6z AIFS run is near mint perfection. Like Ralph said, a quick glance at the upper levels and you can tell the fail mode here is a slip east

I’m more worried about tucking and a NE/interior event. Models sometimes underplay strengths of shortwaves headed from Colorado region. On the plus side the 50/50 is timed absolutely perfectly. I’m still at the “what could go wrong” stage. This is why we play the game though ha.

Cautiously extremely excited, those 6z ai runs were pure porn

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 hours ago, Heisy said:

Ha over on discord I said the H5 sort of reminded me of Jan 31-Feb 1 2021. Idk what it was, some of the model runs had the same look to them as that one. Someone on Philly discord posted the H5 and it’s almost a perfect match

My top analog is 2/26/2010. Feels like a last hurrah (after a brief warm-up), and I think this will miss just north, with NYC having a historic snowstorm, while PHL gets 4-6 inches, and BWI/DCA gets close to nothing, as the winter is pretty much over in those cities.