E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[RedSky]

Grand Bahama kind of cold

 

[Birds~69]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

I'm sooty, but this kind of cold, for this kind of duration is too much for me. It'd be nice to get a couple of days break every so often before a reload.

Then there goes our snowpack with slush, ponding and junk. I'm a greedy weenie...want to keep the snowpack and add by nickel/dime or get plastered again.

16F/Sunny

[snowwors2]

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Yeah, I was disappointed looking at the temp when I woke up. It was 6F a little before 5am. I was expecting lower. Someone must be held accountable for this failure... 

14F @ 1:10pm

Bottomed out @ -.6° for the fourth time below zero in this frigid stretch‼️

[Birds~69]

1 hour ago, snowwors2 said:

Bottomed out @ -.6° for the fourth time below zero in this frigid stretch‼️

Are you sure you are in Pipersville? They haven't gone below zero yet. However, forecast for tonight is -3...

[Birds~69]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The last time in Philadelphia was 2009-2010.

Have you ever made a spelling, grammar or fact error since the beginning of the internet? 

15F

[Albedoman]

while all of you are worried about the next 2-6 inch snow event, I am telling you all right now and I have been saying this for two months, being laughed and joked about is the potential for record breaking Ice jams on the Delaware and other rivers that are  going to be FEMA disaster damaging. Even  the Little Lehigh creek IMBY which is 85% spring fed and has been never frozen in my entire 40 years that I have lived year, is frozen solid. That is bad folks. Ice jam warnings will be issued because you all know that one good warm spell will be coming toward Presidents Day.  How bad is this situation now?  As a member of the EOC in Lehigh County and a Township  manager this situation is becoming pretty fricking serious right now.  Need proof? Well here you go in the link below that is not public knowledge.  Also , nobody is talking about saltwater  intrusion on the Delaware right now?  Many muncipalities may be out of drinking water real soon with the ice jams as water relases cannot be performed. 

As of late 2024 and early 2025, saltwater intrusion on the Delaware River has been a concern due to low freshwater inflows, with the salt front shifting upstream towards the Philadelphia International Airport. While it has reached positions similar to 2016 levels, management efforts, including reservoir releases, are actively managing salinity levels. 

• Location of Salt Front: The salt front has moved approximately 20 miles north of its typical position, closer to Philadelphia, PA, and Camden, NJ.
• Cause: Driven by drought conditions and reduced freshwater flow, allowing for higher upstream migration of sea salt.
• Action Taken: The Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC) is using water from upstream reservoirs to push the salt front back down.
• Water Quality: Despite the intrusion, officials have been able to protect drinking water intakes, although the situation requires active management. 

https://view.em.silvi.com/?vawpToken=RX366I5XGK2UVGXG6FTSFNFRJE.130014

 

[Newman]

3 hours ago, RedSky said:

How insanely cold is it? A west central Florida winter thread has been initiated for the SE region

 

I had a call with some of Governor DeSantis' cabinet yesterday about the cold and potential Tampa snow flurries. People are being dumb and freaking out. True story. The extreme cold though... Not a joke. Single digit wind chills throughout North Florida, including here in Tallahassee. I'm a bit twisted and looking forward to it lol. The Ag business, not so much. Hope you picked your oranges already farmers!

In PA weather news, I think KABE could very easily break the top 10 for longest stretches of temps at or below 32°, though it'll depend on Tuesday. Current forecasted high is 31

[rcostell]

7 hours ago, MGorse said:

We are required to use the NBM for the official NWS forecast. Through collaboration though we can edit that if it is significant enough. It is quite the touchy new policy that many are not happy with. It basically adds more work than saving time as we were told it would. NBM has its flaws plus it always lags behind at least one model cycle. 

Mike-

I hope there is a feedback mechanism (one that is responded to as "opportunities for improvement")  that can take the feedback from the users and drive rapid improvement/track progress... not sure how progressive your organization is, in todays day and age.  Proces Improvement should be a mantra- but the world gets in the way sometime. Hang tough. 

[snowwors2]

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Are you sure you are in Pipersville? They haven't gone below zero yet. However, forecast for tonight is -3...

NO idea where Accuweather pulls their “Pipersville” info from⁉️

I’ve been a weather weenie for 60+ years and moved to my current home in Pipersville specifically for the remoteness our home (I suppose we have our own microclimate)‼️

Here the details (verified with two units):

21st ~ -6.2°

28th ~ -.4°

29th ~ -1.6°

30th ~ -.6°

 

Projection for tonite is -7°. I currently sit at 11.7°.‼️

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

5 hours ago, Voyager said:

I'm sooty, but this kind of cold, for this kind of duration is too much for me. It'd be nice to get a couple of days break every so often before a reload.

That's because you are this guy -

 

I definitely could use a break too.  The glaciers out there right now are right outta the 1977 winter handbook!  

I bottomed out at 8F this morning and will see if it really does go completely calm tonight (still a few breezes kicking up every once in awhile).  Made it up to 17 as a high this afternoon.

Currently 15 with dp thankfully above 0 again at 2.

[Ralph Wiggum]

19 hours ago, snowwors2 said:

❓❓❓❓❓

 

 

[MickeyTim6533]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

6 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Have you ever made a spelling, grammar or fact error since the beginning of the internet? 

15F

That statement isn't even correct. January 2010 wasn't below average temperaturewise, and both November 2009 and March 2010 were really warm. 2009-10 had historical snow, but it was done in a very short window, and wasn't really historically cold. After snowmageddon, the winter was pretty much over, and we had 90 degree temps in early April (years like 95-96, 02-03, and 13-14 - all wall-to-wall cold and snowy winters - it was still snowing at that point in the season). 

[RedSky]

Weird variations out there i have 7F but a cluster of -2 to -6F central Bucks 

Lehigh Valley in the range of 6F to 8F

 

[snowwors2]

4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

That’s the good ‘ol GFS for ya‼️

[snowwors2]

7 hours ago, snowwors2 said:

NO idea where Accuweather pulls their “Pipersville” info from⁉️

I’ve been a weather weenie for 60+ years and moved to my current home in Pipersville specifically for the remoteness our home (I suppose we have our own microclimate)‼️

Here the details (verified with two units):

21st ~ -6.2°

28th ~ -.4°

29th ~ -1.6°

30th ~ -.6°

 

Projection for tonite is -7°. I currently sit at 11.7°.‼️

 

Already down to -3.1° at 1:00 AM‼️

[snowwors2]

42 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Weird variations out there i have 7F but a cluster of -2 to -6F central Bucks 

Lehigh Valley in the range of 6F to 8F

 

Correct per my last post‼️

[MickeyTim6533]

[Ralph Wiggum]

54 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

Several periods of opportunity on the ensembles (feb 5, feb 8, feb 10-11, feb 14-16). Icon has a raging winter storm mid week (probably wrong?). Far from a snoozefest. But go get your zzz's , we can wake you in april.

[MickeyTim6533]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Several periods of opportunity on the ensembles (feb 5, feb 8, feb 10-11, feb 14-16). Icon has a raging winter storm mid week (probably wrong?). Far from a snoozefest. But go get your zzz's , we can wake you in april.

dont get too excited, we know how that will play out....

[Kevin Reilly]

8 hours ago, RedSky said:

Weird variations out there i have 7F but a cluster of -2 to -6F central Bucks 

Lehigh Valley in the range of 6F to 8F

 

 Valleys low here was 2.2f with a -8 dew point true Arctic!!

[Birds~69]

16 hours ago, Albedoman said:

while all of you are worried about the next 2-6 inch snow event, I am telling you all right now and I have been saying this for two months, being laughed and joked about is the potential for record breaking Ice jams on the Delaware and other rivers that are  going to be FEMA disaster damaging. Even  the Little Lehigh creek IMBY which is 85% spring fed and has been never frozen in my entire 40 years that I have lived year, is frozen solid. That is bad folks. Ice jam warnings will be issued because you all know that one good warm spell will be coming toward Presidents Day.  How bad is this situation now?  As a member of the EOC in Lehigh County and a Township  manager this situation is becoming pretty fricking serious right now.  Need proof? Well here you go in the link below that is not public knowledge.  Also , nobody is talking about saltwater  intrusion on the Delaware right now?  Many muncipalities may be out of drinking water real soon with the ice jams as water relases cannot be performed. 

As of late 2024 and early 2025, saltwater intrusion on the Delaware River has been a concern due to low freshwater inflows, with the salt front shifting upstream towards the Philadelphia International Airport. While it has reached positions similar to 2016 levels, management efforts, including reservoir releases, are actively managing salinity levels. 

• Location of Salt Front: The salt front has moved approximately 20 miles north of its typical position, closer to Philadelphia, PA, and Camden, NJ.
• Cause: Driven by drought conditions and reduced freshwater flow, allowing for higher upstream migration of sea salt.
• Action Taken: The Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC) is using water from upstream reservoirs to push the salt front back down.
• Water Quality: Despite the intrusion, officials have been able to protect drinking water intakes, although the situation requires active management. 

https://view.em.silvi.com/?vawpToken=RX366I5XGK2UVGXG6FTSFNFRJE.130014

 

Ice jam guy!

9F/sunny

[Kevin Reilly]

38 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Ice jam guy!

9F/sunny

All seriousness we do have 1-2” liquid frozen on rock hard grounds.   If the southern branch of the jet stream wakes up and really amps a storm and suddenly 50-60 degree air comes with a storm that drops 2-3” we most certainly have big issues with flooding and ice jams due to frozen grounds and rapid runoff.  I suppose it’s not a matter but when with our new Tundra in place.  
 

I 100% like the heads up and the what if scenario in this case.  
 

I do recall issues like this in 1996 but there was less ice just a lot more liquid available.

Think we are setting up for possible major snow storms first followed by a flip of the switch warming and wet by very late February or sometime in March. 
 

If anyone has a 500 chart it shows the STJ beginning to wake up.

I think we are about to enter into a transition at this time next 6 weeks from La Niña towards El Niño I’d expect some turbulent / possible extreme weather.  Phil then should see his shadow because we are about to pick up 15-20” of snow next 4-6 weeks. 

[ChescoWx]

On 1/30/2026 at 6:29 AM, donsutherland1 said:

The last time in Philadelphia was 2009-2010.

Hey Don think you have your dates wrong nothing unusually cold at PHL in that timeframe. The most days below freezing in a row during Dec 09 - Jan 10 was only 3 days

[ChescoWx]

17 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Have you ever made a spelling, grammar or fact error since the beginning of the internet? 

15F

Assuming you were joking above Birds? We all make mistakes even Don LOL!! Take it easy on him!! Even I have made a mistake on Chester County weather!! LOL!!

[Birds~69]

24 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Assuming you were joking above Birds? We all make mistakes even Don LOL!! Take it easy on him!! Even I have made a mistake on Chester County weather!! LOL!!

Actually. I was praising him for his present/past post. Ironically he may have made a mistake on the post I quoted. I don't even know because I always assume he's correct. (99/100 he's correct)  He's been top notch since I've joined Eastern/American forums...

15F/Sunny