E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Franklin0529]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

BOOM!

Yessir. Pants tent worthy right there. 

[MJO812]

Total

[Newman]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

CMC was a foot+.....GFS was 6-12

1" QPF line right along I-95 south on the CMC 0.8-0.9" throughout SE PA. 9° in ABE at the peak of the storm, 13° verbatim in Philly.

[Newman]

Although I wouldn't go too crazy with ratios, seeing super deep DGZs like this could easily net you a 15:1 average ratio through the storm. Some places would exceed 20:1 within banding.

[Ralph Wiggum]

GEFS trends last 6 runs

[LVblizzard]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS trends last 6 runs

Now do the AI GFS which has inexplicably gone the opposite direction lol.

[Newman]

Ukie another big hit. A bit less amped from the insane 12z run, but still gets 1" QPF to Berks and Lehigh. 

[LVblizzard]

1 minute ago, Newman said:

Ukie another big hit. A bit less amped from the insane 12z run, but still gets 1" QPF to Berks and Lehigh. 

With an airmass this cold we really only need like .7” or .8” liquid to see a foot. This will be high ratio fluff.

[Newman]

1 minute ago, LVblizzard said:

With an airmass this cold we really only need like .7” or .8” liquid to see a foot. This will be high ratio fluff.

Absolutely, this will be a frigid storm. Just wait until we get into range for our CAMs that can handle banding.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Well, the Euro AI ticked south, but the euro deterministic was a foot for most of SE PA.

[Newman]

I'm pretty sure the Euro is going for an overrunning to coastal scenario. Looks like a completely different look now with a closed trough over the central Plains. Full phase

[LVblizzard]

Overall a good 0z suite. Still a lot of work to do to iron out details. We probably won’t have a good handle on this until Thursday morning at the earliest.

[RedSky]

15 minutes ago, Newman said:

I'm pretty sure the Euro is going for an overrunning to coastal scenario. Looks like a completely different look now with a closed trough over the central Plains. Full phase

2003 Pd2ish?

[RedSky]

Euro and the para Canadian now i can get some sleep

[Albedoman]

This looks promising for the LV

 

 

[Duca892]

EURO looks great nice to see movement north on some overnight last night 

[Duca892]

Uh guys this GFS run might be a monster…. I don’t understand anything but I think it might be

[Franklin0529]

4 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Uh guys this GFS run might be a monster…. I don’t understand anything but I think it might be

Definitely coming north and a beast 

[Duca892]

Think it might have been a slight small step back? But overall pretty identical to 0z

[Duca892]

Almost wonder if how the GFS is currently if that is our happy medium where the monster stays south but most still end up with a nice 3-8in snow

[Franklin0529]

4 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Almost wonder if how the GFS is currently if that is our happy medium where the monster stays south but most still end up with a nice 3-8in snow

Yea GFS is the lowest of all models right now. Good place to be. I like our chances 

[Fields27]

GEFS with a nice bump N.

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[Newman]

5 hours ago, RedSky said:

2003 Pd2ish?

Yep, the 6z Euro AIFS also came back north and heading in that direction. We'll see if it's real at 12z

[Duca892]

NWS has the NBM at 40% of 5in+ all the way up to Allentown and Philly at 55%

[Violentweatherfan]

6 hours ago, Newman said:

Absolutely, this will be a frigid storm. Just wait until we get into range for our CAMs that can handle banding.

Can you check the Skew T and see what the temps are for the Dendritic Growth Zone. From what I understand too cold can impact accumulation 

[Heisy]

Yep, the 6z Euro AIFS also came back north and heading in that direction. We'll see if it's real at 12z

The phase looks like the current favorite with the ensembles leaning that way. The Ai jumping on board at 6z and OP having it back to back runs.


.

[Mikeymac5306]

To me. It looks like the GFS and AIGFS is still keeping it suppressed. Anything we should we be concerned about?

[Newman]

19 minutes ago, Heisy said:

The phase looks like the current favorite with the ensembles leaning that way. The Ai jumping on board at 6z and OP having it back to back runs.


.

Are you thinking about chasing this one or gonna stick it out in Philly? I guess it depends on where we end up with this in a few days...

[Newman]

5 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

To me. It looks like the GFS and AIGFS is still keeping it suppressed. Anything we should we be concerned about?

6z GFS Op and GEFS came north again, AIGFS is a southern outlier for now. With a potential phase that models seem to be heading towards, I think a southern slider solution becomes much less likely

[Duca892]

5 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

To me. It looks like the GFS and AIGFS is still keeping it suppressed. Anything we should we be concerned about?

I can’t read much to me it looked like OP GFS 6z was the slightest step back from 0z, but still primarily the same. Would have liked to see that continue north