E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Birds~69]

52 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

As we always try and present any and all models that produce any measurable snow.....we do have the 18z NAM with a move north of accumulating though minor snow tomorrow PM.

We're really scraping to find snow...lol. That map is just sad. 

Cold one coming up tonight...

 

[ChescoWx]

For those on Team Snow or at least Team Cold the below from meteorologist Steve Dimartino should make you happy. "The Ensemble guidance today is showing the weather pattern I've been talking about since September. I think interesting times are ahead. What that means for your backyard snowfall, I don't know. However, I do know that this is one of the most favorable weather patterns I've ever experienced in December in a decade."

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

It's highly annoying to waste cold air...

We are such a wasteful region

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

For those on Team Snow or at least Team Cold the below from meteorologist Steve Dimartino should make you happy. "The Ensemble guidance today is showing the weather pattern I've been talking about since September. I think interesting times are ahead. What that means for your backyard snowfall, I don't know. However, I do know that this is one of the most favorable weather patterns I've ever experienced in December in a decade."

Clearly someone that is bored with dry and cold and near misses to the north and south and needs something to talk about before his rating base leaves him from boredom and enjoys the Holidays without snow!

Welcome to La Nina Winter!  Nothing is really exciting me but at least we have the first ingredient running around the cold.  Guess we better start stirring up the southern jet stream soon if the northern dominant stream allows it. 

[Birds~69]

4 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

For those on Team Snow or at least Team Cold the below from meteorologist Steve Dimartino should make you happy. "The Ensemble guidance today is showing the weather pattern I've been talking about since September. I think interesting times are ahead. What that means for your backyard snowfall, I don't know. However, I do know that this is one of the most favorable weather patterns I've ever experienced in December in a decade."

Sounds like something JB would say to gain subscriptions....

27F

[LVblizzard]

Some of the 0z mesos form scattered snow showers away from the main area of precip with the low sliding to our south. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some coatings around the area tomorrow evening.

[Birds~69]

24F @ 11:15pm, breezy and dry as a mother out there. Make sure to have some Suzy chapstick available...

[KamuSnow]

2 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Sounds like something JB would say to gain subscriptions....

27F

Well, tonight's the coldest night I've ever experienced for the last 8 months. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, lol.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

In this warming climate, it's hard to get more than one month at a time to be colder than average. With all this cold air, if we don't get at least one inch of snow by the end of December, the winter is in real trouble, like 2022-23. Things always tend to regress to the mean, so there's a pretty good chance that January and February will torch.

[Birds~69]

21F at 6:55àm 

[BBasile]

Had a low temp of 23.4F this morning.  I think that's the lowest temp since March 3.  Waiting on some snow to start falling, hopefully.  Just virga for now.  

[ChescoWx]

10 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Sounds like something JB would say to gain subscriptions....

27F

Does anyone follow JB any more? 

[ChescoWx]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

In this warming climate, it's hard to get more than one month at a time to be colder than average. With all this cold air, if we don't get at least one inch of snow by the end of December, the winter is in real trouble, like 2022-23. Things always tend to regress to the mean, so there's a pretty good chance that January and February will torch.

In our current "warming climate" 3 of the last 4 months have been below normal.....

[JTA66]

Bottomed out at 21F. Cold and dry...33F and rain's ugly twin sister.

Wow, Steve D. Forgot all about that guy. Anyone remember Ruggie weather??

[PhiEaglesfan712]

6 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

In our current "warming climate" 3 of the last 4 months have been below normal.....

At PHL, only August was below average, and November was near normal. Goes to show that it's hard to get a widespread below average month in the region.

But considering your area has 3 of the last 4 months below normal (and will likely be 4 out of 5), it's only a matter of time before the pendulum swings the other way.

[ChescoWx]

Our coldest spots were our relatively highest elevation locations with both Glenmoore (19.4) and East Nantmeal (19.7) with lows just below 20 degrees. Unlike on radiational cooling nights where our valley spots are colder...with cold air advection into the area following cold fronts our ridge locales are often colder. This was a record low for today for East Nantmeal with 22 years of records. Some models still try to throw some flurries or light snow as far north as Chester County this afternoon with the coastal low and a little more after midnight with a coastal inverted trough. Either way not much but if it does occur it could cause a slippery spot on to with temperatures remaining in the 20's for high temperatures. We will remain well below normal for at least the next week. Our coldest day after today looks to be Monday with highs again remaining in the 20's. Our next chance of snow or rain will be toward Wednesday night.

[ChescoWx]

12 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

At PHL, only August was below average, and November was near normal. Goes to show that it's hard to get a widespread below average month in the region.

But considering your area has 3 of the last 4 months below normal (and will likely be 4 out of 5), it's only a matter of time before the pendulum swings the other way.

I never look at PHL anymore just too much UHI problems....Just typical cyclical climate change....warm - cold - warm - cold rinse and repeat

[Birds~69]

Showed the White House  on TV, snowing there. Jealous...

[ChescoWx]

Snowing on the beaches in SJ

[BBasile]

Flurries!  24.4F / 14 dew

[Hurricane Agnes]

14 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We are such a wasteful region

We are morphing into Colorado, where there is a lot of "spring snow".   'Soon as the daffodils start blooming, in comes the phasing.  

I ended up bottoming out at 22 but what was more notable and a sign of arctic cold, was the single digit dp of 9 IMBY that I bottomed out to as well. 

It's currently 24 with dp 12.

[Duca892]

Holy crap are the models just boring for the next few weeks

[Lady Di]

23F and the tiniest of flurries making way to the surface.  Such a waste of cold air!

 

[ChescoWx]

Some of you might not remember this but December 5th has been one of the snowier days in our December history below are the years it snowed here in Chester County and how much snow we ended up with in that winter season. 

[JTA66]

Outside putting up Christmas lights and occasionally seeing the tiniest of snow flake float by. Overachiever!!  

[KamuSnow]

1 hour ago, BBasile said:

Flurries!  24.4F / 14 dew

Same here, even a surprise dusting! 28F currently.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Pixie dust snow here in Ivyland. 23f

[Ralph Wiggum]

43 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Holy crap are the models just boring for the next few weeks

Its funny to read Paul's post from some well-respected met about best December winter pattern in 10 years then actually look at guidance. Social media click bait 100%

[LVblizzard]

48 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Holy crap are the models just boring for the next few weeks

We will get our chances. This is the kind of pattern that doesn’t have any obvious long range threats. Instead stuff will appear 4-5 days out.

[Birds~69]

Tiniest of flakes falling. I didn't know if I was hallucinating or if it was real? Held out my black glove and a flake the size of half an ant fell onto it. A special moment indeed...

25F