E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[KamuSnow]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Nice burst of light snow here with some stickage. First measurable snow of the season. Aaaaand we're off and running

We got some of that here too! Pleasant surprise, not a bad thing at all.

[JTA66]

No stickage here that I noticed, just a white rain event.

[RedSky]

Heavy dusting 

.30" 

[LVblizzard]

Starting to become interested in next Saturday. Models have a weak Miller B setup and some of them hit us with a moderate snow event.

[Newman]

Really tricky forecast for Tuesday across Berks, Lehigh, Northampton counties per usual. Expecting the R/S line to make it to the 78 corridor, but never know. How much snow falls in these areas will depend on how quickly/heavy the initial WAA snows come in and how quickly (or not) the warm nose aloft lifts north. Southern parts of these counties won't do as well as the northern parts. I'd expect sleet to mix in more than expected, but we'll have to see what the CAMs show the next few cycles. Regardless, small shifts will make a big difference in these counties and it'll probably be a nowcast to see where the R/S line is on CC radar.

2-5" is a good call, 2 being the low end and 5 the 75th percentile or so. Reasonable worst case scenario is probably 6 or 7 inches

[RedSky]

I like to thank my grill cover for measuring today

 

[RedSky]

The 12z euro no changes wow

[Fields27]

The 12z euro no changes wow

Berks county jackpot.

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[RedSky]

Just now, Fields27 said:

Berks county jackpot.

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Like small nw shift but still I take

[RedSky]

Yeah extrapolating the cutoff in Jersey map i saw looked great but now that I see the run it took that jog back over Berks about a 40 mile shift from 0z

 

[ChescoWx]

All of the models have started to reduce snow totals by at least an inch from the last run....

[ChescoWx]

All that said the ensemble run held serve or even increased amounts a bit.....so you say there is a chance?? 

[LVblizzard]

47 minutes ago, Newman said:

Really tricky forecast for Tuesday across Berks, Lehigh, Northampton counties per usual. Expecting the R/S line to make it to the 78 corridor, but never know. How much snow falls in these areas will depend on how quickly/heavy the initial WAA snows come in and how quickly (or not) the warm nose aloft lifts north. Southern parts of these counties won't do as well as the northern parts. I'd expect sleet to mix in more than expected, but we'll have to see what the CAMs show the next few cycles. Regardless, small shifts will make a big difference in these counties and it'll probably be a nowcast to see where the R/S line is on CC radar.

2-5" is a good call, 2 being the low end and 5 the 75th percentile or so. Reasonable worst case scenario is probably 6 or 7 inches

I went 1-3” on my page with the higher end of that range likely north of route 22. My concern remains the WAA push being stronger than modeled which often happens with events like this. Not as strong as the NAM, which is way overdoing it, but it wouldn’t shock me at all to see just 2-3 hours of snow. I think the R/S line makes it to around Blue Mountain or slightly north of there in the end.

[penndotguy]

1 hour ago, Fields27 said:

Berks county jackpot.

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I’m not liking that, the Jackpot zone this early usually craps the bed, by tomorrow it’ll be quick shot snow then rain. Seen it all to often.   

[RedSky]

35F holding on to the dusting

[Birds~69]

2 hours ago, RedSky said:

I like to thank my grill cover for measuring today

 

Frozen precip seems to stick to grill covers first. And with the black background is easy to see. May want to add this to the weenie handbook at a later date...

Cloudy/39F

[Albedoman]

bullseye is south mountain/macungie- my house --should be under a winter storm watch based on this model.  Mt Holly no time to be bashful.  The drivers in the LV have not seen snow in a long time. At least get them concerned about this storm event.  Its border line warning criteria I know but least get them prepared under a watch. Too many times in the last few years , an advisory level event has  turned into double digit snowfall events

[simbasad2]

Here are my thoughts regarding totals for the region for Tuesday. Keeping the heavier snow to the northwest with a sharp gradient as you approach I-95. I'm thinking I might shift this even farther northwest in future updates but we'll see

 

 

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Frozen precip seems to stick to grill covers first. And with the black background is easy to see. May want to add this to the weenie handbook at a later date...

Cloudy/39F

Grill cover is light gray it acts like a snow board

[Birds~69]

50 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Grill cover is light gray it acts like a snow board

Grills themselves act like a block of ice once cold and also elevated. Snow sticks to mailboxes quickly as well. Reference: Weenie paperboy observation back in the day...

 

[JTA66]

Wonder if the guys who invented the grill cover or car top lived long enough to see their contributions to meteorology.

Only 0.07” in the bucket today, 39F.

[Mikeymac5306]

Thread started for 12/3 for those who were beginning to get jittery. 

 

[Birds~69]

1 minute ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Thread started for 12/3 for those who were beginning to get jittery. 

 

I'll be happy if the ground gets whitened. A 1/2" would be a plus...

[KamuSnow]

1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Thread started for 12/3 for those who were beginning to get jittery. 

 

Unless I'm missing something, it looks more like a 12/2 event. Unless you know something we don't lol.

[ChescoWx]

4 hours ago, simbasad2 said:

Here are my thoughts regarding totals for the region for Tuesday. Keeping the heavier snow to the northwest with a sharp gradient as you approach I-95. I'm thinking I might shift this even farther northwest in future updates but we'll see

 

 

Nice map IMHO!! As you mention I suspect an adjustment will be needed tomorrow...a nice 50 mile NW in snow accumulations may well hit the mark! Thanks!!

[ChescoWx]

3 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Grills themselves act like a block of ice once cold and also elevated. Snow sticks to mailboxes quickly as well. Reference: Weenie paperboy observation back in the day...

 

Of course official NWS measurements are never made on concrete or driveways. A good mailbox or wood deck can work quite well for snow measuring if you don't have a trusty snowboard like some of us weather weenies employ!! LOL!!

[simbasad2]

3 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Nice map IMHO!! As you mention I suspect an adjustment will be needed tomorrow...a nice 50 mile NW in snow accumulations may well hit the mark! Thanks!!

Thank you!! 

[Mikeymac5306]

11 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

Unless I'm missing something, it looks more like a 12/2 event. Unless you know something we don't lol.

Been out of the office all week and I always lose track of days when I'm not there lol! 

[ChescoWx]

November finished as our 3rd below average temperature month over the last 4 months. December looks to also be getting off to a well below normal temperature start. Sunny today but with temperatures almost 10 degrees below normal for highs. Clouds roll in tonight with some snow arriving toward dawn. The Winter Weather Advisory starts at 4am for Western Chester County. Any snow to start should quickly change to sleet and then rain with little if any accumulation. That said with the timing near rush area it may be a bit slippery for the morning commute. High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be in the mid 30's well below average but fall even further below average by Friday as the coldest air of the season arrives. Temperatures on Friday will stay in the 20's. Another wintry event is possible by Friday night into Saturday.

[KamuSnow]

1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Been out of the office all week and I always lose track of days when I'm not there lol! 

I get that, I'm retired so I know what you mean, lol. I think just north of the rain-snow line, wherever it winds up, should have a pretty solid event.