E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[KamuSnow]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Nice burst of light snow here with some stickage. First measurable snow of the season. Aaaaand we're off and running

We got some of that here too! Pleasant surprise, not a bad thing at all.

[JTA66]

No stickage here that I noticed, just a white rain event.

[RedSky]

Heavy dusting 

.30" 

[LVblizzard]

Starting to become interested in next Saturday. Models have a weak Miller B setup and some of them hit us with a moderate snow event.

[Newman]

Really tricky forecast for Tuesday across Berks, Lehigh, Northampton counties per usual. Expecting the R/S line to make it to the 78 corridor, but never know. How much snow falls in these areas will depend on how quickly/heavy the initial WAA snows come in and how quickly (or not) the warm nose aloft lifts north. Southern parts of these counties won't do as well as the northern parts. I'd expect sleet to mix in more than expected, but we'll have to see what the CAMs show the next few cycles. Regardless, small shifts will make a big difference in these counties and it'll probably be a nowcast to see where the R/S line is on CC radar.

2-5" is a good call, 2 being the low end and 5 the 75th percentile or so. Reasonable worst case scenario is probably 6 or 7 inches

[RedSky]

I like to thank my grill cover for measuring today

 

[RedSky]

The 12z euro no changes wow

[Fields27]

The 12z euro no changes wow

Berks county jackpot.

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[RedSky]

Just now, Fields27 said:

Berks county jackpot.

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Like small nw shift but still I take

[RedSky]

Yeah extrapolating the cutoff in Jersey map i saw looked great but now that I see the run it took that jog back over Berks about a 40 mile shift from 0z

 

[ChescoWx]

All of the models have started to reduce snow totals by at least an inch from the last run....

[ChescoWx]

All that said the ensemble run held serve or even increased amounts a bit.....so you say there is a chance?? 

[LVblizzard]

47 minutes ago, Newman said:

Really tricky forecast for Tuesday across Berks, Lehigh, Northampton counties per usual. Expecting the R/S line to make it to the 78 corridor, but never know. How much snow falls in these areas will depend on how quickly/heavy the initial WAA snows come in and how quickly (or not) the warm nose aloft lifts north. Southern parts of these counties won't do as well as the northern parts. I'd expect sleet to mix in more than expected, but we'll have to see what the CAMs show the next few cycles. Regardless, small shifts will make a big difference in these counties and it'll probably be a nowcast to see where the R/S line is on CC radar.

2-5" is a good call, 2 being the low end and 5 the 75th percentile or so. Reasonable worst case scenario is probably 6 or 7 inches

I went 1-3” on my page with the higher end of that range likely north of route 22. My concern remains the WAA push being stronger than modeled which often happens with events like this. Not as strong as the NAM, which is way overdoing it, but it wouldn’t shock me at all to see just 2-3 hours of snow. I think the R/S line makes it to around Blue Mountain or slightly north of there in the end.