First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[dryslot]

I want frozen ground, But we don't always get what we want.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Couple folks asked about Runaway / Luke. He's fine just busy.

Yea, I text him ...work been nuts.  In Asia alot 

[MegaMike]

31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i fucking hate the AIFS dude. it gets humped to no end and people rely on it too much 

sometimes analysis is just “well, the AIFS shows this, so…” and it’s the worst

I completely agree. It was recently made operational (Feb. 2025) and its primary purpose (imo at the current moment) is to provide an efficient (few resources and fast to simulate), medium/long range ensemble... I consider it a less accurate version of the CFS, honestly. They're years, if not decades, away from making the AIFS comparable to any traditional NWP modeling system. I'm not even fully sold on that being a possibility either... I'll take it seriously when the AIFS outperforms the IFS at the surface and not 500-50mb 

Vendors will provide any modeling system to stand out, unfortunately... At this range, I'd primarily consider the ECMWF, GFS, CMC, ICON, and UKMET (with more emphasis on their ensembles). Maybe look at trends of the AIFS for S&Gs.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Ran the 00z ICON from my basement.

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Ran the 00z ICON from my basement.

?

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

?

ICON with Kuchera. What could possibly go wrong?

[CoastalWx]

00z icon pretty far offshore. Decent hit away from the coast.

 

edit wrong run. 0z definitely a hugger.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

00z icon pretty far offshore. Decent hit away from the coast.

 

edit wrong run. 0z definitely a hugger.

Looks way more amped than 18z

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like about 10" here. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/11/seasons-first-winter-storm-likely.html

FIRST CALL:

 

 

 Wow, scooter Jr dropped a terd on me...punk

[MJO812]

Gfs coming back to earth. Gonna be south of past runs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

ICON with Kuchera. What could possibly go wrong?

What a like about this low is we seem to time the life cycle well, so that could help those areas that are marginal.

[MJO812]

Rgem at 84 fwiw

[Sey-Mour Snow]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs coming back to earth. Gonna be south of past runs.

It’s actually the same or a touch further north with some surface features, just a but colder at first in some spots, looks like icon . Faster less amped meh 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs coming back to earth. Gonna be south of past runs.

Doesn’t look much different to me at all

[MJO812]

Gfs is stil nice for interior SNE. It did come further south and east and alot weaker on this run.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It’s just a lot weaker, not really south.

the whole thing is just less impressive by a good margin

[H2Otown_WX]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s just a lot weaker, not really south.

the whole thing is just less impressive by a good margin

Yeah, the vort is not consolidated, strung out POS

[CoastalWx]

Gfs is very warm still in SNE. QPF is best near low track so not much oomph in the colder air for heavier amounts. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

GFS is awful.

[dryslot]

Strung out POS

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is stil nice for interior SNE. It did come further south and east and alot weaker on this run.

No, it isn't.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs is very warm still in SNE. QPF is best near low track so not much oomph in the colder air for heavier amounts. 

The biggest difference this run was definitely the cold side. Where it’s cold enough for snow it ended up pretty meh. Probably talking a 1/3 to 1/2 reduction 

[CoastalWx]

Different and weaker with main s/w. I’m still inclined to toss it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Same, exact gradient, just more moderate amounts.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Same, exact gradient, just more moderate amounts.

Cmc might come in flatter than 12z. Following the rgem. 

[MJO812]

Snowstorm for Boston 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like the trend tonight is towards less proficent cyclogensis, regardless of track...which isn't surprising. This isn't a pattern ripe for bombs.