dryslot Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I want frozen ground, But we don't always get what we want. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 14 minutes ago, kdxken said: Couple folks asked about Runaway / Luke. He's fine just busy. Yea, I text him ...work been nuts. In Asia alot 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i fucking hate the AIFS dude. it gets humped to no end and people rely on it too much sometimes analysis is just “well, the AIFS shows this, so…” and it’s the worst I completely agree. It was recently made operational (Feb. 2025) and its primary purpose (imo at the current moment) is to provide an efficient (few resources and fast to simulate), medium/long range ensemble... I consider it a less accurate version of the CFS, honestly. They're years, if not decades, away from making the AIFS comparable to any traditional NWP modeling system. I'm not even fully sold on that being a possibility either... I'll take it seriously when the AIFS outperforms the IFS at the surface and not 500-50mb Vendors will provide any modeling system to stand out, unfortunately... At this range, I'd primarily consider the ECMWF, GFS, CMC, ICON, and UKMET (with more emphasis on their ensembles). Maybe look at trends of the AIFS for S&Gs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Ran the 00z ICON from my basement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: Ran the 00z ICON from my basement. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: ? ICON with Kuchera. What could possibly go wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 00z icon pretty far offshore. Decent hit away from the coast. edit wrong run. 0z definitely a hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 00z icon pretty far offshore. Decent hit away from the coast. edit wrong run. 0z definitely a hugger. Looks way more amped than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Looks like about 10" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/11/seasons-first-winter-storm-likely.html FIRST CALL: Wow, scooter Jr dropped a terd on me...punk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Gfs coming back to earth. Gonna be south of past runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 24 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: ICON with Kuchera. What could possibly go wrong? What a like about this low is we seem to time the life cycle well, so that could help those areas that are marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Rgem at 84 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs coming back to earth. Gonna be south of past runs. It’s actually the same or a touch further north with some surface features, just a but colder at first in some spots, looks like icon . Faster less amped meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs coming back to earth. Gonna be south of past runs. Doesn’t look much different to me at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Gfs is stil nice for interior SNE. It did come further south and east and alot weaker on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago It’s just a lot weaker, not really south. the whole thing is just less impressive by a good margin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s just a lot weaker, not really south. the whole thing is just less impressive by a good margin Yeah, the vort is not consolidated, strung out POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Gfs is very warm still in SNE. QPF is best near low track so not much oomph in the colder air for heavier amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GFS is awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Strung out POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is stil nice for interior SNE. It did come further south and east and alot weaker on this run. No, it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs is very warm still in SNE. QPF is best near low track so not much oomph in the colder air for heavier amounts. The biggest difference this run was definitely the cold side. Where it’s cold enough for snow it ended up pretty meh. Probably talking a 1/3 to 1/2 reduction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Different and weaker with main s/w. I’m still inclined to toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Same, exact gradient, just more moderate amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Same, exact gradient, just more moderate amounts. Cmc might come in flatter than 12z. Following the rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Snowstorm for Boston 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 57 minutes ago Share Posted 57 minutes ago Looks like the trend tonight is towards less proficent cyclogensis, regardless of track...which isn't surprising. This isn't a pattern ripe for bombs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted 54 minutes ago Share Posted 54 minutes ago Canadian a little weaker, but also slighlty colder. Would be a decent event for many in SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 52 minutes ago Share Posted 52 minutes ago Yea, I would sign for the GEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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