First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[dryslot]

I want frozen ground, But we don't always get what we want.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Couple folks asked about Runaway / Luke. He's fine just busy.

Yea, I text him ...work been nuts.  In Asia alot 

[MegaMike]

31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i fucking hate the AIFS dude. it gets humped to no end and people rely on it too much 

sometimes analysis is just “well, the AIFS shows this, so…” and it’s the worst

I completely agree. It was recently made operational (Feb. 2025) and its primary purpose (imo at the current moment) is to provide an efficient (few resources and fast to simulate), medium/long range ensemble... I consider it a less accurate version of the CFS, honestly. They're years, if not decades, away from making the AIFS comparable to any traditional NWP modeling system. I'm not even fully sold on that being a possibility either... I'll take it seriously when the AIFS outperforms the IFS at the surface and not 500-50mb 

Vendors will provide any modeling system to stand out, unfortunately... At this range, I'd primarily consider the ECMWF, GFS, CMC, ICON, and UKMET (with more emphasis on their ensembles). Maybe look at trends of the AIFS for S&Gs.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Ran the 00z ICON from my basement.

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Ran the 00z ICON from my basement.

?

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

?

ICON with Kuchera. What could possibly go wrong?

[CoastalWx]

00z icon pretty far offshore. Decent hit away from the coast.

 

edit wrong run. 0z definitely a hugger.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

00z icon pretty far offshore. Decent hit away from the coast.

 

edit wrong run. 0z definitely a hugger.

Looks way more amped than 18z

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like about 10" here. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/11/seasons-first-winter-storm-likely.html

FIRST CALL:

 

 

 Wow, scooter Jr dropped a terd on me...punk

[MJO812]

Gfs coming back to earth. Gonna be south of past runs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

ICON with Kuchera. What could possibly go wrong?

What a like about this low is we seem to time the life cycle well, so that could help those areas that are marginal.

[MJO812]

Rgem at 84 fwiw