Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential

[ILSNOW]

Chicago NWS

Attention then turns toward the next storm system due to arrive
in our region this weekend. Ensemble model guidance remains in
agreement that an upper-level wave currently halfway between the
states of Hawaii and Washington will come ashore and propagate
eastward across the contiguous US on Friday and into the
Mississippi River Valley on Saturday. As the wave approaches, it
may attempt to phase with subtle preceding shortwaves emanating
from the remnants of the subtropical jet along the US/Mexico
border and a polar wave dropping south out of Canada. The degree
of interaction with any of these waves will ultimately
influence the eventual evolution of the storm system, which is
leading to the usual spread of ensemble outcomes typical for a
system 4 days out.

Generally speaking, the expectation is for a region of warm-
air advection snow to develop across the region early Saturday
morning and then to transition to "cold conveyer belt"
frontogenesis-driven snow Saturday into Saturday night.
Depending on the exact evolution and strength of the system, a
warm nose may surge into parts of the area leading to a
transition from snow to rain at some point on Saturday.
Regardless, the ensemble signal, particularly among the EPS
suite, remains strong for our general region to experience
impactful snow on Saturday.

[migratingwx]

18Z GFS has slightly higher amounts for Chicagoland. 

18z vs 12z below.

[ChiTownSnow]

with that lead wave,  what are we talking on ratio's ? 

 

[Radtechwxman]

Weird cuz gfs has low pretty north but it's precip type is pretty much keeping it all snow here

[ChiTownSnow]

8 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Weird cuz gfs has low pretty north but it's precip type is pretty much keeping it all snow here

Something's got to give ..either that low gets pushed South or that warm air gets pushed North.

[migratingwx]

14 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Weird cuz gfs has low pretty north but it's precip type is pretty much keeping it all snow here

5 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Something's got to give ..either that low gets pushed South or that warm air gets pushed North.

18z GEFS didn't really change much from 12z.

[migratingwx]

4 minutes ago, migratingwx said:

18z GEFS didn't really change much from 12z.

18z vs 12z below

 

 

 

 

[Radtechwxman]

9 minutes ago, migratingwx said:

18z GEFS didn't really change much from 12z.

A euro vs gfs showdown again

16 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Something's got to give ..either that low gets pushed South or that warm air gets pushed North.

Usually waa wins. Gfs evolution is just strange. Definitely need some sampling of this system to help models. 

[Baum]

Hate to say it but an amped Madison special at the break of December ain’t necessarily a bad thing based on trends it seems for nearly a decade. We need to bury the south east suppressed program early this year. 

[ChiTownSnow]

Not sure about this.AccuWeather..

[ChiTownSnow]

Looking like a '90s map though

[Radtechwxman]

12 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Not sure about this.AccuWeather..

Yes please. Lol

[nvck]

13 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Not sure about this.AccuWeather..

think they might need to curve that arrow preeeeeeetty sharply in the opposite direction

[ChiTownSnow]

1 minute ago, nvck said:

think they might need to curve that arrow preeeeeeetty sharply in the opposite direction

I just figured it was an old map but when you look at the bottom right corner it's from today.

[nvck]

Just now, ChiTownSnow said:

I just figured it was an old map but when you look at the bottom right corner it's from today.

nothing but the best over there

[ChiTownSnow]

Just now, nvck said:

nothing but the best over there

It's all about those ads. Joe bastardi style

[nvck]

18z euro has a slightly stronger low, and a rain/snow line similar (slightly north) to the 12z. still sketchy if ur a chicago poster 

[Radtechwxman]

18z euro continues the heartbreak here. Man I wish I was more north. Stupid waa

[cyclone77]

Yeah 18z Euro gets the rain up to I-80 in IL now.  Another bump north and Eurythmics will be playing at ALEK's lol.

[ChiTownSnow]

I'm dreading the inevitable dry slot

[Baum]

I was born in 1962. I can recall two Thanksgiving events. 1975 and that tree snapper about 10 years ago. Both were a sloppy mess with crap ratios. Both underperformed just based on early season climatology. 

[Radtechwxman]

Can't wait till this gets in nam's range. Ha

[cyclone77]

3 minutes ago, Baum said:

I was born in 1962. I can recall two Thanksgiving events. 1975 and that tree snapper about 10 years ago. Both were a sloppy mess with crap ratios. Both underperformed just based on early season climatology. 

We had about a foot of snow a few days after Turkey Day back in 2018.  Picked up a half inch of rain in the morning and switched over to very heavy wet snow.  Best November event for snow I've ever seen here hands down.

[sbnwx85]

Different ways of getting there but GFS and Euro manage to drop 5” of slop on those runs.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

28 minutes ago, Baum said:

I was born in 1962. I can recall two Thanksgiving events. 1975 and that tree snapper about 10 years ago. Both were a sloppy mess with crap ratios. Both underperformed just based on early season climatology. 

I recall 2004 being a surprise white Thanksgiving. Rain changed to snow. 

[A-L-E-K]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah 18z Euro gets the rain up to I-80 in IL now.  Another bump north and Eurythmics will be playing at ALEK's lol.

Brutal climo imby this time of year, essentially a shutout fwiw

[Baum]

35 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Brutal climo imby this time of year, essentially a shutout fwiw

Way too early in the season for a big event in our neck of the woods. But establish the pattern, and hope it sticks as we slide further into December 

[ChiTownSnow]

2 hours ago, Radtechwxman said:

Can't wait till this gets in nam's range. Ha

I still say we all create the first weather model betting app..  put money on GFS vs EURO..etc. 

 

u know the models will get better in a hurry with all that competition